Tesla EV deliveries set to drop on weak U.S. demand, aging lineup

Skip to Content News Archives Economy Energy Oil & Gas Renewables Electric Vehicles Mining Commodities Agriculture Real Estate Mortgages Mortgage Rates Finance Banking Insurance Fintech Cryptocurrency Work Wealth Smart Money Wealth Management Investor Personal Finance Family Finance Retirement Taxes High Net Worth FP Comment Executive Women Puzzmo Newsletters Financial Times Business Essentials More Innovation Information Technology FP500 Podcasts Small Business Lives Told Tails Told Shopping Financial Post Store Obituaries Place a Notice Advertising Advertising With Us Advertising Solutions Postmedia Ad Manager Sponsorship Requests Classifieds Place a Classifieds ad Working Profile Settings My Subscriptions My Offers Newsletters Customer Service FAQ News Economy Energy Mining Real Estate Finance Work Wealth Investor FP Comment Executive Women Puzzmo Newsletters Financial Times Business Essentials This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.HomeElectric VehiclesTesla EV deliveries set to drop on weak U.S. demand, aging lineupAbsent fresh unveilings on its long-term projects, Tesla in recent weeks has been hyping previously announced productsAuthor of the article:With weaker U.S. demand, intensifying competition in China and an aging lineup, Tesla’s auto business is set to muddle along rather than rebound. Photo by Tim Snow/PostmediaTesla Inc.’s vehicle sales likely declined in the third quarter, and Wall Street sees little reason to expect the electric-car maker to return to meaningful growth anytime soon.THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLYSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESCreate an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountThe company likely delivered around 463,761 vehicles worldwide in the last three months, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg, down about seven per cent from a year earlier. Tesla is expected to report sales results Friday.This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.That comparison is skewed by the rush of United States buyers who purchased EVs before a federal tax credit expired last September, which helped Tesla notch a third-quarter delivery record of nearly 500,000 cars — a threshold it’s approached several times in the last few years but never surpassed.Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againAnalysts expect the company to eke out modest growth with 1.77 million deliveries for the full year after two consecutive annual declines. With weaker U.S. demand, intensifying competition in China and an aging lineup, Tesla’s auto business is set to muddle along rather than rebound.Investors are keeping their expectations relatively low for the business that still generates most of Tesla’s revenue while looking for signs of progress on chief executive Elon Musk’s push into autonomous driving, artificial intelligence and robotics. They’re also waiting to see whether widespread speculation about a Tesla-SpaceX merger turns into something more concrete.“The legacy EV business has reached the point where it is stabilized, but at the same time, it’s not a business I see growing again at the rapid rate that it did in previous years,” said Andrew Rocco, a stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research.This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.Spending on the company’s futuristic product lines are expected to surpass US$25 billion this year. It could be years before any of those efforts, including its slow-growing robotaxi service and yet-to-be-launched Optimus robot business, make notable impacts on margins.Even so, the shares remain largely anchored to those catalysts, said JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta. He has among the highest delivery estimates of surveyed analysts at 482,000 vehicles. That’s despite lowering his target on Monday due to concerns about sales in the U.S. and China.Tesla’s shares are down more than 20 per cent this year through Wednesday’s close but have rebounded somewhat over the last two months.Absent any fresh unveilings on its longer-term projects, Tesla in recent weeks has been hyping previously announced products. In September, it held two launch-style events for the Cybercab and its long-promised Semi. Next up is a public debut for the Roadster, a vehicle more than a decade in the making, which was rescheduled for later in the month due to weather, the company said.This advertisement has not loaded yet.This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.The launches could help give Tesla’s stale lineup a boost, said Garrett Nelson, senior equity analyst at CFRA Research. “The company desperately needs a new model, a successful new model, from a brand standpoint,” Nelson said. At the same time, Nelson highlighted sales in the European Union as a bright spot among the EV maker’s three major markets.In the EU, where sales plunged last year amid backlash against Musk, new Tesla registrations rose 52.7 per cent in August and 65.9 per cent through the first eight months of 2026, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association. EV demand is surging there, fuelled by soaring gas prices and an influx of cheaper Chinese-made EVs.While Tesla is benefiting from a decline in EV models from other automakers around the world, it’s increasingly facing headwinds from Chinese brands as they dominate the auto market.The growth in the EU could help balance global sales as Tesla battles sluggishness and pushes discounts in U.S. and China, its two biggest markets. Data from Cox Automotive for the quarter shows that while Tesla remains the biggest EV player in the U.S., overall sales are down 31 per cent year over year.In China, where Tesla has been offering end-of-quarter discounts on Model 3 and Y vehicles, the EV maker is fighting to hold onto share in an increasingly crowed market. About 36,000 of Tesla’s 86,000 Chinese-built cars were shipped overseas for sale in August, according to data from China’s Passenger Car Association, as Shanghai-made deliveries declined month-over-month.—With assistance from Ryan Beene.We apologize, but this video has failed to load.This advertisement has not loaded yet.Notice for the Postmedia NetworkThis website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.