Tariffs won’t save Detroit — locking China out of Mexico will

Reports of progress in trade talks between the United States and Mexico this week should come as welcome news to millions of American autoworkers who have been holding their breath since negotiations with Canada collapsed last month. On Monday, President Donald Trump said an agreement with Mexico was close and raised the prospect of eliminating the 25% tariffs now affecting some Mexican goods — a potentially significant development for North American manufacturers.They have good reason to worry. The U.S. and Canadian auto industries aren’t simply trading partners; they are parts of the same manufacturing system. The U.S. exports roughly $30 billion in auto parts to Canada each year, running a $10 billion surplus, and more than half the value of a Canadian-built vehicle originates in the U.S. In Michigan and Ontario, parts routinely cross the border several times before a finished vehicle rolls off the assembly line.The trade war now underway threatens to disrupt that system. U.S. tariffs have been met with billions of dollars in Canadian counter-tariffs, including new duties on steel and aluminum, while automakers and suppliers are already reconsidering investments amid the uncertainty. That makes what is happening with Mexico all the more important. The two governments have already completed three negotiating rounds, with another planned in Washington. The discussions have included automobiles, steel and aluminum, rules of origin, and economic security. U.S. Trade Rep. Jamieson Greer and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum have specifically agreed on the urgency of growing North American manufacturing, strengthening regional supply chains, and preventing countries outside USMCA — most importantly, China — from free-riding on its benefits.That is precisely the right objective.We grew up in Michigan and spent years representing Michiganders in Lansing and Washington. Republicans and Democrats didn’t always agree on much, but we understood the importance of the auto industry as an engine of American growth.Michigan put the U.S. on wheels, and it remains central to the nation’s automotive economy. Nearly 1 in 5 vehicles made in the U.S. is built there, and 95 of North America’s 100 largest automotive suppliers operate in the state.But this is bigger than Michigan.The American auto industry depends on a North American supply chain developed over decades. Steel, aluminum, engines, electronics, and thousands of components move among the U.S., Mexico, and Canada before a finished vehicle rolls off an American assembly line. Disrupt that system and costs rise, suppliers get squeezed, investment becomes harder, and American vehicles become less competitive.We understand why Washington seeks stronger rules that prevent China and other non-market economies from using our trading partners as a back door into the U.S. market. And we further understand why Mexico is fighting to preserve the regional manufacturing system on which millions of jobs in both countries depend. The good news is that in July, the U.S. and Mexico reported progress on replacing Asian imports while strengthening North American supply chains.Those goals are not incompatible. In fact, they point toward the same solution.USMCA already requires 75% of qualifying automobile content to originate in North America. The current negotiations provide an opportunity to strengthen that principle: make it harder for Chinese and other non-market content to enter our automotive supply chains while preserving the advantages of producing automobiles across an integrated North American market. USTR itself has described the objective as increasing U.S. and Mexican production and manufacturing employment while limiting “non-market inputs” in North American supply chains.The U.S. brings world-class engineering, technology, capital, research, and advanced manufacturing. Mexico brings enormous manufacturing capacity and a cost structure that helps North American companies compete globally. We hope Canada will eventually again be part of this equation, deeply integrating metals, energy, and manufacturing capacity with Michigan and the industrial Midwest.But we should not wait for the dispute with Ottawa to be resolved.A successful U.S.-Mexico agreement could establish the foundation for a stronger North American automotive market while opening the door for the U.S. and Canada to return to the table so that North America can once again enjoy a united and productive manufacturing system.For Michigan, getting that deal done is more important than ever. For the nation, the stakes are greater still.TRUMP IS MAKING CANADA WORTH COURTING — AND CHINA HAS NOTICEDThe U.S. needs an automobile industry capable of competing with China and the rest of the world. We need secure supply chains, more investment, and more manufacturing jobs at home.A U.S.-Mexico trade agreement that pushes China out while protecting the North American supply chain would be a win for Michigan and a win for the U.S.Mike Bishop is a former Republican Congressman from Michigan. John D. Cherry, Jr. was Michigan’s Democratic Lieutenant Governor.