Southwest Pacific cyclone outlook: Up to 11 forecast amid El Niño

Southwest Pacific cyclone outlook: Up to 11 forecast amid El Niño

NZ Herald·14 Oct, 2026 06:29 AM3 mins to read‌Mount Maunganui received strong winds and heavy rain when Cyclone Vaianu hit the Bay of Plenty in April. Experts predict up to 11 tropical cyclones could form across the Southwest Pacific this summer. Photo / Alyse WrightUp to 11 tropical cyclones could form across the Southwest Pacific this summer with at least four potentially reaching severe strength.Earth Sciences New Zealand’s 2026/27 Tropical Cyclone Outlook forecasts between seven and 11 named cyclones from November to April, compared with a long-term average of about nine per season.

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