South Korea’s Deliberate Strategic Ambiguity on Taiwan

In 2021, Sungmin Cho wrote, “South Korea’s Taiwan Conundrum,” where he argued Seoul’s complex strategic position makes engagement on questions of involvement over a Taiwan contingency complicated. Five years later, we asked him to revisit his arguments.Image: U.S. Navy (Photo by Seaman Apprentice Cale Hatch)In your 2021 article, you argued that Seoul should more actively engage in strategic dialogue with Washington on Taiwan issues. Five years later, what does that dialogue look like? How has South Korea adjusted its strategic thinking regarding involvement in a potential Taiwan contingency since 2021, based on its relationship with the United States?Outside the government, the conversation has changed considerably. South Korean experts now discuss Taiwan contingencies actively in domestic and international forums, examining specific scenarios and policy options. Abroad, although certainly not unanimous, the view has emerged that South Korea would find it difficult to remain entirely uninvolved, particularly if the United States intervened. At the same time, many experts believe Seoul’s most appropriate contribution would be rear-area support, like logistics, intelligence, humanitarian assistance, or other noncombat functions, rather than front-line combat.Public opinion points in a similar direction. In a June 2025 survey, conducted jointly by the JoongAng Ilbo and the East Asia Institute, 87.5 percent of South Koreans surveyed said tensions in the Taiwan Strait were important to South Korea’s national interests. Yet only 6.1 percent supported deploying combat troops. By contrast, 69.1 percent favored some form of indirect assistance, including humanitarian aid, weapons or ammunition, or noncombat personnel. In short, strategic thinking has advanced substantially, but mostly outside formal government statements.At the government level, Seoul continues to affirm the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Still, it has made no public commitment regarding what South Korea would do in a contingency or disclosed any detailed discussions with Washington about possible Members-Only ContentThis article is reserved for War on the Rocks members. Join our community to unlock exclusive insights and analysis.