Scientists Estimate That Europe's Scorching Summer Heat Killed More Than 50,000 People in Urban Areas

The new research, which has not yet been peer-reviewed but was accepted for publication, suggests that climate change is responsible for two-thirds of the deaths October 26, 2026 10:47 a.m. Spain was one of the hardest-hit countries during Europe's summer heat waves. Marcelo del Pozo via Getty Images Western Europe faced its hottest summer ever this year. And it was the third toastiest summer on record for the entire continent, which is warming faster than any other. Now, scientists have calculated a death toll from the season’s sweltering temperatures: more than 50,000 people across the continent’s cities. The estimate, which has not yet been peer-reviewed but is slated to be published in the journal Nature Health, marks a new record for heat-related deaths in Europe, nearly doubling the toll of the last two deadliest summers in 2022 and 2003. About two-thirds of the deaths are directly attributable to climate change, mainly driven by the burning of fossil fuels. “I think we can be quite confident in stating that the summer of 2026 is likely to have been the worst on record for heat-related mortality across much of Europe,” says study co-author Clair Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, to Laura Paddison at CNN. During the spring and summer, Europe faced an assault of back-to-back heat waves. The hot, dry conditions also contributed to intense wildfires that threatened lives across the region. However, much of the infrastructure in Western and Northern Europe wasn’t designed to cope with the sweltering temperatures brought on by human-caused global warming, Barnes explains to Seth Borenstein at the Associated Press. To estimate heat deaths, governments will usually look through death records to identify excess mortalities that may be attributed to higher temperatures, Warren Cornwall reports for Science. In this study, however, Barnes and her colleagues took a different approach. They used published peer-reviewed research to build computer simulations of how many people would have died between June and August both with and without the effects of climate change. They specifically looked at deaths in 854 urban areas across 30 countries. Analyses revealed that 50,391 deaths in those cities could be attributed to higher temperatures. Nearly one-third of the deaths occurred between June 17 and July 1, when a heat wave brought temperatures 9.5 degrees Fahrenheit above the average temperature in 1991 to 2020. The summer was especially deadly for people ages 85 and up, who represent about 22,500—nearly 45 percent—of the mortalities. But young people were also affected, with people between 20 and 44 representing more than 800 of the deaths. Quick fact: Deadly spring The researchers didn’t even include deaths related to excessive springtime heat, which they estimate killed about 1,500 people between May 21 and 31. The numbers are likely an underestimate, says Kristie Ebi, a climate epidemiologist at the University of Washington who wasn’t involved in the study, to Science. Computer models often assume that deaths rise at a steady rate with growing temperatures, but it’s possible that fatalities actually shoot up during the most extreme heat. Other scientists who weren’t involved in the study, however, believe the estimates should be interpreted with caution. They “involve several uncertainties and assumptions,” says Lasse Vestergaard, an epidemiologist and chief physician at the European Mortality Monitoring Network, to CNN, though they largely align with his group’s estimates. As climate change continues to raise temperatures, experts stress that more needs to be done to address extreme heat. “We can’t just be mopping up the mess on the floor without thinking about turning the faucet off,” says Jonathan Patz, a global health researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who wasn’t involved in the work, to the AP. “So, we need prevention at different levels. We need better cooling and protecting vulnerable populations from inevitable increased frequency and extreme heat waves. But we also need to go to the root of the problem and absolutely address the burning of fossil fuels.” You Might Also Like Get the latest stories in your inbox every weekday. More about: Climate Change Death Global Warming Health Heat Medicine