Scientists Can Predict Where the Next Devastating Earthquake Will Hit

3 min readHere’s what you’ll learn when you read this story:The eastern coast of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula experienced a magnitude 8.8 megathrust earthquake in late July 2025. While the earthquake created only moderate damage and a minimal tsunami, a new study gathered satellite data related to the earthquake and created an algorithm that accurately predicted where the earthquake would strike.While the model can’t foresee the strength of the generated tsunamis or when the earthquake will occur, the algorithm could help communities prepare that are located near stressed regions along subduction zones.On July 30, 2025, at 11:24 a.m. local time, a massive magnitude 8.8 megathrust earthquake rattled the eastern coast of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula. It was the largest seismic event since the Tōhoku earthquake in 2011, although thankfully it was much less deadly. The massive quake happened along the Kuril–Kamchatka subduction zone—a fault boundary between the Okhotsk plate and the Pacific plate on the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire, a 25,000-mile stretch of seafloor that produces three-quarters of the world’s earthquakes. Most accounts of the 2025 quake reported only moderate damage and minimal tsunamis in coastal regions across the Pacific, though one small valley did record a 109-foot wave. While Japan is still recovering from the fallout of the Tōhoku earthquake even now, the world mostly forgot about the Kamchatka earthquake in less than a week.But while its historical legacy might be short-lived, its scientific one may be just beginning. In a new study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, two University of California Riverside (UCR) geophysicists, Axel Periollat and Gareth Funning, used the Kamchatka earthquake to test a model that attempts to predict the precise location where major seismic events will strike.“Earthquakes capture headlines when they happen, but for years beforehand the fault is quietly accumulating strain,” UCR’s Funning said in a press statement. “This strain can be measured.”The study focused on subduction zones (areas where one plate travels, or subducts, under another), which typically produce Earth’s largest and most destructive earthquakes. Subduction-zone earthquakes usually occur when a section of the fault locks up and creates asperities that gather up more and more stress until they suddenly slip, causing sudden, massive releases of seismic energy. Following a quake, the stress in the subduction zone begins building up again from close to zero. That made Kamchatka an ideal laboratory because the last comparable quake there struck in 1952. The fault had been recharging for 73 years, long enough for the strain to become measurable from space.Using GPS measurements along with Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), which can detect changes in the Earth’s surface down to the millimeter, the authors created an algorithm that could determine specific regions where strain gathered along the fault line. When compared with the 2025 Kamchatka earthquake, the model correctly predicted where the earthquake would eventually strike.“We had an idea where the strain was accumulating based on a relatively limited data set,” Periollat said in a press statement. “Seeing it work so well confirmed that this approach has real potential.”The model does have a few limitations that are beyond the scope of this particular study. For one, the model can’t predict the severity of the tsunamis the earthquakes will cause. While both the 1952 and 2025 earthquakes struck along the same fault, the first one produced a much larger tsunami, suggesting that the shallower section of the fault slipped more than it did in 2025. The algorithm could be improved with better data-gathering from faults along the seafloor, and the model also can’t predict the timing of an earthquake. But knowing where a fault experiences the most stress can help communities and governments prepare. And when it comes to earthquake prediction, both Funning and Periollat have a vested interest.“Your peace of mind shouldn’t come from believing we can forecast the exact earthquake,” Funning said. “Especially where we live in Southern California, it’s not a matter of if, but when. There is no substitute for preparation.”Darren lives in Portland, has a cat, and writes/edits about sci-fi and how our world works. You can find his previous stuff at Gizmodo and Paste if you look hard enough.