Russia’s Missile Machine Is Running Hot — and Ukraine May Not Get a Break, HUR Says

Russia is unlikely to pause its missile campaign against Ukraine despite record levels of ballistic strikes, as Moscow continues to exceed production targets and redirect resources toward weapons it considers more effective, Ukraine’s military intelligence deputy chief said. Russia could reduce the number of missiles fired at individual targets but is unlikely to halt its strikes, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy chief of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), told RBC-Ukraine.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. “Everything will primarily depend on their production volumes,” Skibitskyi said, adding that Russia’s ability to maintain its current tempo would depend on how many missiles it can produce. The warning comes after Russia launched a record 377 ballistic and cruise missiles at Ukraine in July, according to Kyiv Post’s earlier assessment. The figure included Iskander-M ballistic missiles, missiles launched from S-400 systems and Zircon hypersonic missiles. Russia also fired 153 Kh-101, Kalibr and Kh-32 cruise missiles during the month. But out of the 126 ballistic missiles launched, only 36 were intercepted – roughly 29%, meaning for every four launched, around three managed to evade Ukrainian defenses. The figures reflect a sharp acceleration in Russia’s ballistic campaign. Moscow launched 61 ballistic missiles in April, 107 in May and 134 in June, according to HUR. Other Topics of Interest Russia Escalates Drone Strikes on Ukraine’s Naftogaz Russia has intensified its attacks on Ukraine’s Naftogaz Group, striking Ukrnafta production assets, drilling rigs and filling stations. “Remember, they used to conduct attacks every 10 days? Then it became once a week. Now it is even more frequent,” Skibitskyi said. Russia is also exceeding production targets for several key missile systems. According to Skibitskyi, Moscow is currently producing its main missile types at 110-120% of planned monthly levels. Russia had already fulfilled its annual production targets for Zircon and upgraded Oniks missiles by Aug. 3, producing 33 Zircons and 60 Oniks missiles in seven months. “Moscow is focusing on the production of certain weapons and reallocating resources toward them,” Skibitskyi said. At the same time, Russia has redirected resources toward weapons it considers more reliable and effective. Production of Kinzhal and Kh-32 missiles has been halted since April, Skibitskyi said. Russia had been trying to improve the accuracy of the Kh-32, but several combat tests failed to deliver the desired results. “They were unable to achieve this, and the Russians sent them back for further development and suspended the plan for serial production,” he said. Moscow has similarly struggled with Kinzhal accuracy, according to Skibitskyi. “For an effective missile, the deviation from the target should not exceed 5-7 meters, while theirs is 30 meters or more,” he said. The resources previously allocated to the Kinzhal and Kh-32 programs are now being redirected toward other ballistic missiles. Russia is also shifting its drone production. Moscow plans to manufacture around 11,000 attack UAVs in August, with production increasingly focused on turbojet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones. In one recent Russian attack, turbojet-powered UAVs reportedly accounted for around half of the drones used. “In one of the recent attacks, 50% were already turbojet-powered UAVs,” Skibitskyi said. The shift could complicate Ukraine’s air-defense efforts, as the faster drones require different interceptors or short-range air-defense systems. Meanwhile, Russia is accelerating development of its own satellite communications network, dubbed Rassvet, which Skibitskyi described as a Russian analogue of Starlink. Russia launched 16 satellites into low Earth orbit in March and plans to build a constellation of 292 satellites by 2027 and 924 by 2035. For now, the system operates only intermittently over Ukrainian territory. But once a full constellation is deployed, Skibitskyi warned, it could function similarly to Starlink. Russia’s strikes are increasingly focused on Ukraine’s defense industry, logistics, ports, railways and energy facilities supporting critical infrastructure, he said. HUR also believes Moscow is trying to create a missile reserve ahead of the fall and winter campaign – meaning Ukraine could face sustained strikes even if Russia reduces the number of weapons used in individual attacks. Kyiv Post is Ukraine’s first and oldest English news organization, reporting since 1995. Its international reach – 97% of readers are outside of Ukraine – make it truly Ukraine’s global voice.