Russia is Planning “Something Big” This Year, Sikorski Warns as Escalation Fears Grow

Russia is preparing “something big” this year, Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has warned, amid concerns that Moscow may be seeking to escalate its conflict with NATO. Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on Thursday, Sikorski said: “We are receiving information (...) we are not revealing the sources, but there are many [of them], that Russia is preparing something big this year.” JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. He also said the Kremlin might use the operation as a pretext for further mobilization efforts in Russia. “I believe that Putin needs a pretext for mobilization, so they could carry out a false-flag attack and tell the Russian people: ‘We are under attack, and therefore we need to mobilize,’” he added. Europe has been on high alert in recent months following intelligence assessments warning that Russia could test NATO through actions ranging from sabotage, cyberattacks and drone activity to a limited military operation. Potential escalation Asked about other potential scenarios for Russian escalation, Sikorski said that “Belarusians are very concerned about being drawn into the war.” The comments came after Sikorski met with his Belarusian counterpart, Maksym Ryzhenkov, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, reportedly the first meeting at this diplomatic level since 2016. Other Topics of Interest ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 24, 2026 War in Ukraine - Latest update, key takeaways and map from the Institute for the Study of War on September 24, 2026. Minsk has been one of Putin’s closest allies, but it has not actively participated in the war against Ukraine. Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, however, allowed Russia to launch part of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory. Belarus is also hosting Russian nuclear weapons. Testing Article 5 Sikorski also said that the Baltic countries with Russian minorities could face the risk of Russian escalation, adding that NATO must be prepared to “deter” potential aggression. He added that Russia would be “crazy” to launch a full-scale invasion against a NATO country and that he expects something less explicit, which could also make it harder to invoke the alliance’s Article 5 mutual-defense clause. The Polish foreign minister also noted that while Russia’s economy is under strain, Moscow could continue the war for another year or two, “unless Ukraine destroys more than half of its refinery capacity.” “Russia believes it still has two cards to play: mobilization and a harsh winter, as well as the destruction of Ukraine’s energy grid, heating systems and major companies. “This is happening and damaging the Ukrainian economy. But the Ukrainians also have, as President Trump said, cards to play,” he said. Ukraine has intensified its long-range strikes in recent months, targeting oil refineries and strategic sites deep inside Russia. Moscow, meanwhile, has continued its regular attacks on Ukraine, hitting civilian infrastructure, including the energy grid, in an effort to weaken Ukrainian morale through the winter. TVP World is Poland's first English-language channel where you can find our guest interviews, world news from the Polish perspective and the latest news from the CEE region.