Russia Craters

Ukraine’s battlefield gains, the US midterms, and Moscow’s ruinous war costs bear down on Putin. Russia hurtles toward economic collapse, as its five-year war against Ukraine falters and military costs consume both its armed forces and its economy. On Nov. 9, hackers obtained intelligence from Russia’s statistics agency, Rosstat, that confirmed his war has been catastrophic. Based on compiled Russian death certificates, data revealed that 412,576 Russians had been killed so far in Ukraine.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. The US-based Institute for the Study of War quickly added that the number was incomplete, according to their calculations, and the carnage, including wounded, was worse. “Russian officials have tried to misrepresent the total number of deceased service members as missing, but total Russian casualties (killed or seriously wounded) are reportedly nearly 1.6 million as of November 2026.” This Congress must send more aid and weapons to Ukraine and pile sanctions on Moscow. However, it must first fix the fact that it overwhelmingly voted in September for sledgehammer sanctions against Russia, but Trump signed the bill and then “waived” it on Oct. 16. His treachery must be addressed and reversed immediately: Congress must pass a law that cancels the “waivers” and also limits Trump’s power to reissue them. “There is also a bipartisan, perhaps even a veto-proof, majority to support Ukraine and oppose Vladimir Putin’s aggression, given that only 3 percent of Americans side with Russia,” wrote Max Boot in the Washington Post. Other Topics of Interest Putin has rejected a bilateral energy ceasefire while Starshield speed caps in occupied Ukraine hamper drone defenses and carry political risks, Zelensky said on Friday. Putin is already running out of cash and time. “Congress could pass additional aid to Ukraine, ensure that Starlink’s satellite internet system stays turned on, send Russian funds frozen in the United States (estimates range from $5 billion to $50 billion) to Kyiv and strengthen sanctions on Moscow without any presidential waiver. Congressional leaders can offer Trump a deal: They’ll give him money to finish the White House ballroom in return for more Patriots to Ukraine.”These sledgehammer sanctions, proposed by late Senator Lindsey Graham, are essential to finish off the Russian regime and end its war quickly.Putin is already running out of cash and time. One Kremlin insider warned a few weeks ago on Russian radio that war costs are eating the rest of the Russian economy alive. He said: “This is not an economy at all; it’s a kind of ‘berserk mode’ that can only exist for a limited time, and the necessity of which should be considered very carefully.”Putin needs $200 billion to wage his war this year and is so desperate for cash that he is even double-crossing his “cannon fodder.” He’s reneged on the promise of a death benefit to the military families (of 5 million rubles or $61,000) by slashing the amount.Worse, the poorest regions in Russia (which have supplied the most soldiers) are so strapped and overwhelmed by the number killed that some are abolishing the death benefit altogether. The increasing war burden has also forced many regions to slash social spending and lay off public-sector employees, including doctors and healthcare workers.And this month, the Kremlin announced that salary payments for defense employees not involved in the war have been postponed to January. Few believe they will ever resume. But Russians know that the war is going badly, just from the casket count alone. To minimize public backlash, the Kremlin instructed state-controlled media outlets to heavily censor or entirely avoid reporting on the country’s spreading economic crisis. But Russians know that the war is going badly, just from the casket count alone. They also know the country is going broke based on word of mouth or media reports about financial problems.For instance, a major plant producing warships and other military sea vessels has not paid its 850 workers for two months.“They promised to pay everything they have on Oct. 23, but again nothing,” said a worker to the Russian media. “At the meeting, they say that the Defense Ministry is not transferring money for orders.”Other factories across the country have shuttered operations, and there are more warning signs. Government arrears have tripled, and workers in construction and mining are not being paid for projects at home.Sectors hit by payment failures are IT, telecoms, and manufacturers owed millions by state enterprises. Recently, thousands of workers at a major nuclear reactor site staged strikes and filed mass resignations after going several months without compensation. Putin spends like a drunken sailor on his war. Protests and walkouts are increasing, contributing to a run on the banks by ordinary Russians that began in the early summer and lasted until the government stepped in to limit withdrawal amounts and frequency.Even so, in June, July, and August, more than $15 billion was withdrawn, mostly due to fear of deposit seizures by the government. Russians are right to distrust their government and to worry. Putin spends like a drunken sailor on his war; not even China offers Russia any financial support. So the government borrows from domestic state banks, and these are now heading for serious financial trouble.A Kremlin-linked think tank, CMACP, said in May that banks’ problem assets exceeded what it called the “critical threshold” of 10%. It said the crisis is latent, with deteriorating asset quality masked by loan restructuring and the dominance of state-owned banks. Al Jazeera reported a few weeks ago that half a million Russians have gone personally bankrupt, and The Moscow Times estimates that total bankruptcies in 2025 reached 636,000. It’s worsening in 2026.But the biggest economic blow has been dealt by Ukraine and its bombing campaign against Russia’s energy facilities, which has destroyed $23 billion worth of assets in the oil sector and cut exports by 30%. Losses to Russia’s coffers are more than $1 billion a month in refined products alone, and it imports gasoline and jet fuel from South Korea and India to meet local needs. This has forced the cash-strapped Kremlin to shake down its non-oil industries. A Kiel Institute/Stockholm Institute report stated that civilian investment has stagnated, labor shortages have intensified, and trade volumes have fallen to their lowest level in more than a decade.Think tank CEPA says Moscow’s rainy-day fund’s liquid assets have fallen from 9.7 trillion rubles ($118 billion) in February 2022 to about 4 trillion ($49 billion) today. Its deficit doubled this year; it now rations gasoline to its people; it makes 40% fewer cars than before the 2022 invasion, taxes are sky-high, and so is inflation. The Ruble is rubble.Even Donald Trump warned Putin to end his war by pointing out, due to the country’s gasoline rationing, that “all of a sudden, the economy is going to collapse.”It is headed that way, but one expert quoted in the National Security Journal warned that Russia can continue its war through 2027 and possibly 2028. But what’s different now is that the Democrats can and should drive Russia over the edge.If the President doesn’t use this leverage, or Putin continues to demand stupid concessions, then Russia must be sanctioned, bankrupted, and shattered into dozens of political pieces. That happened in 1991, and it wasn’t a disaster but a blessing. Thus, if history repeats in 2026, it will be a major win for world peace if, once again, the world’s biggest scourge is disabled and divided.Reprinted with permission. Read the original here. The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.