Renewables to reach 40% of total generating capacity, beat gas within a year – EIA

Photo: Ørsted Over the coming year, renewables’ share of total generating capacity will grow from 37.7% to 40.4%, surpassing that of natural gas and outstripping nuclear capacity fivefold, according to new data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign. Renewable electricity generation grew by more than 10% over the past year According to the EIA’s latest “Electric Power Monthly” report (with data through August 31, 2026), renewably generated electricity during the first two-thirds of 2026 was 10.2% greater year over year. The growth was led by utility-scale [>1 MW] solar (up 20.0%), small-scale solar (up 12.0%), wind (up 7.8%), hydropower (up 4.2%), and geothermal (up 3.8%). From January to August 2026, wind produced 333,367 gigawatt-hours (GWh) – 10.6% of total US electrical generation – while utility-scale and small-scale solar combined produced 329,119 GWh (10.5%), hydropower produced 180,940 GWh (5.7%), biomass produced 29,917 GWh (1.0%), and geothermal produced 10,766 GWh (0.34%). By comparison, the electrical output of US natural gas and nuclear power plants grew more slowly – by just 2.6% and 1.3%, respectively. Electricity produced by US coal plants fell by 8.7%. During the first eight months of 2026, the combination of wind and solar, including small-scale solar, accounted for almost 21.1% of domestic electricity production, with wind at 10.6% and solar at nearly 10.5%. During the first two-thirds of this year, wind and solar combined produced 44.4% more electricity than coal and 24.8% more than nuclear. Through the end of August, the mix of all renewables, including biomass, accounted for 28.1% of total US electrical generation – up from 26.2% a year earlier. Over the past year, renewable energy capacity increased by over 43,000 MW Between September 1, 2025, and August 31, 2026, the installed capacity of utility-scale solar increased by 27,141.7 MW, while that of small-scale solar and wind grew by 6,526.1 MW and 9,979.1 MW (including 800 MW of offshore wind), respectively. The combined capacity of all renewable energy sources, including hydropower, biomass, and geothermal, expanded by 43,497.9 MW. In addition, utility-scale battery energy storage capacity increased by 17,586.9 MW. By comparison, coal capacity fell by 2,703.4 MW, while nuclear capacity remained unchanged. However, natural gas capacity rose by 5,316.0 MW. Combined, net new nuclear and fossil fuel capacity totaled just 2,612.6 MW. Thus, renewable energy’s capacity expansion was nearly 17 times greater than the net growth of fossil fuels and nuclear power combined. Utility-scale renewables to add over 53 GW of new capacity in the coming year The EIA projects that the rapid growth of renewables over the past year will accelerate in the coming year. As of September 1, 2026, renewable energy’s share of total US utility-scale generating capacity was 34.5%. EIA projects this to grow to 37.3% by August 31, 2027. Utility-scale solar will add 44,603.1 MW, thereby expanding its share from 13.4% to 16.5%, while wind will grow by 8,312.3 MW (including 3,355.0 MW of offshore wind), increasing from 13.4% to 13.5%. The mix of other renewables (hydropower, biomass, and geothermal) will add 201.9 MW. The combined net capacity growth of all utility-scale renewable energy sources over the 12-month period (53,117.3 MW) is almost 44% higher than that added over the previous 12 months (36,971.8 MW). It would bring renewables’ share of total US utility-scale generating capacity up to 37.3%. Meanwhile, EIA projects no new nuclear generating capacity and a net decline of 1,997.0 MW in fossil fuel capacity. With new small-scale solar, renewables’ capacity is on track to surpass natural gas by summer 2027 The figures cited above don’t include small-scale solar. The estimated capacity of small-scale solar systems grew by 6,526.1 MW during the last year, bringing its total to 63,192.6 MW. EIA does not provide a forecast for small-scale solar capacity growth over the next 12 months, but the SUN DAY Campaign assumes it will roughly equal the 6,400 MW added on average over each of the past five years. Therefore, it is conservatively assumed that an additional 6,000 MW or more will come online in the coming year. If small-scale solar increases by approximately 6,000 MW by September 1, 2027, it will bring renewable energy’s installed capacity to about 550,000 MW. By comparison, natural gas’ projected generating capacity would total 518,312.8 MW. Solar power’s share alone would be more than one-fifth (20.7%) of total US generating capacity. Battery storage to increase by almost 44% by next September EIA foresees battery energy storage adding another 23,656.2 MW by September 1, 2027 – an increase of 43.7%, bringing the total up to 77,753.2 MW. Thus, the combination of utility-scale renewable energy sources and battery energy storage will provide 76,773.5 MW of new clean energy capacity by late summer 2027. With the inclusion of small-scale solar, that figure could rise to 82.8 GW of new generating capacity. “Each new issue of EIA’s ‘Electric Power Monthly’ reinforces the theme that the growth of solar, wind, and battery storage has become unstoppable,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong. “Meanwhile, the share of the nation’s electrical generation and generating capacity provided by fossil fuels and nuclear continues to shrink.” Read more: EIA: 83 GW of renewables and storage coming in 12 months as fossil fuel capacity to fall If you’ve ever considered going solar, make it easy by finding a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing by checking out EnergySage. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. 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