RBI rate decision, earnings, oil & more: Here's what will drive stock market this week

RBI rate decision, earnings, crude oil & bond yields could be among the key triggers of stock market trendsIndian stock markets are set for another potentially volatile week, with a mix of domestic and global factors likely to determine the direction of equities. The Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision, the start of the corporate earnings season, crude oil prices and global bond yields are among the key triggers investors will track.The RBI’s monetary policy decision will be the principal domestic event. Investors will look for signals on the central bank’s policy stance, inflation outlook and growth projections, which could offer cues on the trajectory of domestic interest rates and financial markets.“The RBI’s policy decision will be the principal domestic trigger. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes will subsequently offer insights into the extent of support among US policymakers for further monetary tightening beyond the September rate increase,” Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, Founder & CEO of HST Wealth, a Research Analyst firm, said, as quoted by PTI.The week will also mark the beginning of the September-quarter earnings season, with IT major TCS scheduled to announce its results on October 8. Retail major DMart will also be among the key companies reporting their earnings.“RBI's monetary policy meeting will be closely watched. The policy stance, inflation outlook and growth projections will provide important cues on the near-term trajectory of domestic interest rates and financial markets,” Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research, Religare Broking, said.On the macroeconomic front, India’s final HSBC Services PMI and Composite PMI readings for September are due on October 6. Foreign institutional investors’ trading activity will also remain an important factor for the market.Crude oil prices are another major concern, particularly with Brent crude trading above USD 100 a barrel. Elevated oil prices could add to pressure on India’s external balances and inflation outlook, while continued geopolitical uncertainty could keep the risk premium in energy prices high.“Crude oil remains the most immediate macroeconomic concern. Brent crude trading above USD 100 a barrel continues to intensify pressure on India’s external balances and inflation outlook, while persistent geopolitical uncertainty threatens to keep the risk premium in energy prices elevated,” Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, an online trading and wealth tech firm, said.Global bond yields will also be closely watched for their impact on risk appetite and foreign flows. A moderation in US Treasury yields could ease pressure on emerging-market assets, while a further rise could make US assets relatively more attractive and encourage continued portfolio reallocation away from emerging markets, Ponmudi said.The domestic market enters the week after ending lower for the eighth consecutive week, weighed down by foreign selling, rupee weakness, elevated crude prices and rising global bond yields.The Sensex lost 1,986.04 points, or 2.68 per cent, last week, while the Nifty declined 718.55 points, or 3.10 per cent. In September, the Sensex fell 4,476.98 points, or 5.81 per cent, while the Nifty dropped 1,459.95 points, or 6 per cent.