Peaceful demise of Vučić in Serbia stands in contrast to second weekend of riots in French cities

The peaceful departure of Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić could open a positive new chapter in Western Balkans history, even as France drifts in the opposite direction. Vučić acknowledged defeat shortly after 9.30PM on Sunday (25 October), when exit polls put his SNS party on 105 seats in parliament, behind the reformist Student List movement, led by cardiologist Ilija Srdanovic, on 135 to 140, even though the final results were far from clear. “Serbia is free! People, BRAVO!,” the Student List posted on X. It had been a tense night in Belgrade, with a heavy police presence in front of government buildings, scuffles at polling stations, and with student and other citizens’ patrol groups monitoring voting, as well as over 300 formal international observers. MEPs and US senators had also warned Vučić (who had once worked at the top of the brutal dictatorship of Slobodan Milošević) on X not to resort to violence to try to steal the vote, But it seems that the landslide was so huge and the turnout so massive (over 69 percent) that there was nothing to be done. And the popular eruption of joy seen afterward all over Serbia was also reminiscent of the fall of Viktor Orbán in elections in Hungary in April. Serbian nationalism, Western Balkan corruption, and Russian interference will not disappear from the region overnight, but with the nationalist-populist Vučić gone there is more chance of normalisation of Kosovo relations and less chance of a Bosnia break up. And there is every chance that a positive reform momentum, rewarded by the EU, could spread from Serbia and help bring more Western Balkan countries into Europe after Montenegro next year. It is the fourth defeat in national elections in a row for pro-Russian and/or far-right parties in Europe this year, after Hungary, but also Sweden and Latvia. And that is a good trend for progressives, in the run-up to the election super-cycle of 2026/2027, which will see similar battles unfold in Spain, France, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Slovakia, Poland, and Italy in the next 12 months. “If we have peace, whatever the outcome, it will be beneficial and blessed. If we have unrest, anger and hatred, whatever the outcome, it will be disastrous for everyone,” said Serb Orthodox Church patriarch Porfirije earlier on Sunday. The spectacle of a peaceful transition of power in Serbia will not be welcomed by Moscow. But it is also a powerful example to any students or ethnic minorities in France, Italy, or further afield in Europe, who spent a second weekend rioting in multiple towns in protest at social inequality. If the far right was to take power in France in April, spurred on by racial tension and civil unrest, it would quickly wipe out any gains made on Sunday in Serbia, both in terms of EU stability, Western Balkans' enlargement prospects, and Russian strategy. But if young people in the EU want change and fairer societies, then the students of Serbia, who began today's tectonic movement in protests two years ago in the town of Novi Sad, have shown them that the path to victory lies in non-violent resistance and patience.