Patriot Missiles Are Running Short Worldwide, Ukraine Faces Winter Threat

Ukraine is struggling to secure enough Patriot air defense missiles ahead of another winter of Russian attacks as shortages affect both the US and Europe, while a proposed deal to produce the interceptors in Ukraine could take years to deliver results.President Volodymyr Zelensky has appealed directly to the US for more missiles, saying even a fraction of the US arsenal could help Ukraine survive the winter. But plans for licensed production of Patriot interceptors face major technical, industrial, and political obstacles, German outlet Welt reported on Sunday, Aug. 16.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.“This year, I am asking our US partners to sell me five percent of their missile arsenals,” Zelensky told CNN. “If they sell us ten percent, we will destroy all of Russia’s ballistic missiles.”Patriot shortage hits Ukraine and its alliesUkraine’s shortage of interceptors comes as demand for Patriot missiles has increased globally.Neither European countries nor the US have enough missiles to easily meet Kyiv’s requests while maintaining their own defenses, Welt reported.The situation has been further complicated by the US war with Iran, which has placed additional pressure on American missile stocks.For Ukraine, the shortage is particularly serious because the most advanced Patriot interceptors are among the few weapons capable of reliably defending against Russian ballistic missiles.Zelensky has warned that Ukraine’s air defense deliveries have fallen sharply compared with last year, while Russia has increased its use of ballistic missiles. 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Production deal faces major hurdlesTrump initially raised hopes in July by saying the US would allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot missiles under license.The announcement came during Trump’s meeting with Zelensky on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara.Trump later appeared to back away from the commitment, saying the technology was difficult to share because countries receiving it could eventually turn against the US.US officials have since continued discussions with Kyiv, but the practical difficulties are significant.One of the first unresolved questions is which Patriot variant Ukraine would be allowed to produce.Olga Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s former ambassador to the US, told Welt that Kyiv wanted to manufacture the PAC-3, the most advanced Patriot interceptor. Unlike the PAC-2, the PAC-3 is designed to destroy incoming ballistic missiles through a direct hit.The PAC-3 is manufactured by Lockheed Martin, while some earlier Patriot variants are produced by Raytheon.JC Lintzenich, a visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said the most advanced technology would be difficult for Lockheed Martin to transfer.“These are the company’s crown jewels, and nobody wants them to fall into the hands of China or Russia and be copied there,” he told Welt.Production would take yearsEven if Washington and Lockheed Martin approved production in Ukraine, establishing a manufacturing line would not quickly solve Kyiv’s shortage.Lockheed Martin delivered 620 PAC-3 missiles in 2025, a 20% increase from the previous year.Japan, the only foreign country with licensed production of the missile, produces only around 30 interceptors a year. Key components, including Boeing-made seeker technology, remain a major constraint.“What the Japanese are struggling with, the Ukrainians will also struggle with,” Lintzenich said.The alternative could be production of the less advanced PAC-2, for which the US has already licensed manufacturing in Germany.Raytheon and the European defense consortium MBDA are building a Patriot missile factory in Schrobenhausen, Bavaria. Construction began in November 2024, and the facility is expected to be completed this fall.That timeline illustrates how long it can take even when the necessary political agreements are already in place.Europe cannot quickly fill the gapUkraine could potentially receive missiles produced in Germany, but that option also faces capacity constraints.Ukrainian diplomats reportedly view the Schrobenhausen factory as one of the most straightforward ways to obtain additional interceptors. However, production would have to be increased significantly.Current unconfirmed plans reportedly envision around 240 missiles a year from the facility, while existing contracts could cover up to 1,000 missiles ordered by countries including Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands.Meaning, Ukraine would have to compete for limited production capacity with European countries that are also trying to rebuild their own air defense stocks.The shortage is therefore not simply a Ukrainian problem. Allies face the difficult choice of sending scarce interceptors to Kyiv or retaining them for their own national and NATO requirements.Winter deadline is approachingZelensky has privately acknowledged that establishing domestic Patriot production could take years.US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said last week that a long-term production agreement would not be concluded before winter.For Ukraine, that timeline is too slow to address the immediate threat.Russia is expected to intensify missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure during the winter months. Without sufficient interceptors, Kyiv could face a serious gap in its ability to protect critical targets from ballistic strikes.The prolonged negotiations could also have political consequences for relations between Washington and Kyiv.Laura Cooper, a former Pentagon official responsible for Russia and Ukraine policy, warned that delays could be interpreted in Moscow as evidence of growing friction between Trump and Zelensky.“The Kremlin could interpret this as a setback in relations between Trump and Zelensky,” she told Welt.For now, Ukraine remains dependent on existing Western stocks while the proposed production arrangements move through a process that could take months or even years.