Oscar Predictions 2027: Telluride Reshapes the Best Picture Race as TIFF Lines Up Its Crowd-Pleasers

Oscar Predictions 2027: Telluride Reshapes the Best Picture Race as TIFF Lines Up Its Crowd-Pleasers Courtesy of VIFF Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday. Steve Buscemi and Sam Rockwell in WILD HORSE NINE. Photo by Searchlight Pictures/Diego Araya Corvalán, Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures. © 2026 Searchlight Pictures. All Rights Reserved. Searchlight Pictures 2027 Academy Awards Predictions Commentary All Categories (Updated: Sept. 10, 2026): The presumed best picture front-runner will not screen for another three months. The other one has been playing since July. And then there’s everything in between. “Dune: Part Three” won’t arrive until December, and Denis Villeneuve’s finale will hang over every projection between now and then. Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” opened in the summer and has not slipped an inch since. Neither felt any need to haul itself up to any of the festivals. The movies that actually turned up in Telluride are why the race reads differently this week than it did last. Martin McDonagh’s “Wild Horse Nine,” with John Malkovich doing the loosest, meanest work of his late career, walked out of its first screening to the kind of ovation that puts him and the movie, squarely in the thick of the race. Searchlight has made this climb before, and they have their eye on the prize. Over at Focus Features, Simon Stone’s “Elsinore” handed Andrew Scott a showcase that the awards team can build a whole campaign around. A24’s “The Debut” had the biggest applause at the fest, and now TIFF will digest it and see if it can go even further. But A24 has other stuff up its sleeves. No documentary has ever been nominated for best picture. Not saying there haven’t been worthy entrants such as “Hoop Dreams,” “Searching for Sugar Man” and dozens of others. Across nearly a hundred years of this ceremony, the category has kept a wall between nonfiction and the top prize and that wall has never once come down. Enter Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s “You Can See Everything,” which surprised Telluride and took the town by storm. If the film holds through the fall, the 99th Academy Awards could hand a documentary feature the first pest picture nomination in Oscar history and A24 wants it. Then there is “Wildwood,” which was just announced as the opening night film of AFI Fest and Laika is looking to make its own history. Three animated films have ever broken through into the top category. “Beauty and the Beast.” “Up.” “Toy Story 3.” Every last one of them representing a Disney flag. Laika, the Oregon studio that has spent two decades building whole worlds one agonizing frame at a time, has never come within shouting distance of the marquee category. Travis Knight’s “Wildwood” is the film that could finally get there, and getting there would make Laika the first animation house from outside the Disney orbit to land in the category. A stop-motion fantasy, hand-posed frame by frame, could go the distance. But first, Toronto will get its say. While Telluride is a room full of believers, TIFF is tens of thousands of strangers with a ballot and its People’s Choice Award that can prove that a movie has what it takes. The predictions will look nothing like this by Thanksgiving, and we’re ready to keep watching the race unfold. The Governors Awards, which will hand out honorary Oscars to Glenn Close and Ridley Scott, will take place Sunday, Nov. 15. Preliminary voting for the Oscars shortlist in 12 categories runs Dec. 7-11, with the shortlist announcement to follow Tuesday, Dec. 15. Following the close of the eligibility period on Dec. 31, 2026, nominations voting will run Jan. 11-15, 2027. The official Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, Jan. 21, 2027. The 99th Oscars will take place on Sunday, March 14, 2027 and will be hosted by Conan O’Brien. The ceremony airs live at 7 p.m. ET on ABC and in more than 200 territories worldwide from the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood. Projected nomination leaders (films): “The Odyssey” (15); “Dune: Part Three” (12); “The Debut” and “La Bola Negra” (7); “Wild Horse Nine” and “Wildwood” (6); “Project Hail Mary” (5) Projected nomination leaders (studios): A24 (18); Universal Pictures and Warner Bros. (15); Netflix (12); Laika and Searchlight Pictures (6); Amazon MGM Studios (5) *** = PREDICTED WINNER(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order) Best Picture Image Credit: Courtesy of A24 “The Debut” (A24)Jesse Eisenberg, Ali Herting, Dave McCary, Emma Stone“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***Cale Boyter, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve“Fjord” (Neon)Pascal Caucheteux, Dyveke Bjørkly Graver, Cristian Mungiu, Andrea Berensten Ottmar, Marco Perego, Tudor Reu“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo, Jorge Pezzi“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)Ryan Gosling, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Rachel O’Connor, Amy Pascal“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh, Anie Overland“Wildwood” (Laika)Travis Knight, Sam Wilson“You Can See Everything” (A24)Maggie Ambrose, Tatiana Bears, Jack Davis, Nathan Fielder, Lance Oppenheim Oscar category page with rankings>>> Directing Image Credit: Courtesy of MK2 Films Martin McDonagh, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)Christopher Nolan, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)Denis Villeneuve, “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***Olivia Wilde, “The Invite” (A24)Andrey Zvyagintsev, “Minotaur” (Mubi) Oscar category page with rankings>>> Actor Image Credit: Anthony Dickenson Tom Cruise, “Digger” (Warner Bros.) ***Matt Damon, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)John Malkovich, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures) Andrew Scott, “Elsinore” (Focus Features)Sebastian Stan, “Fjord” (Neon) Oscar category page with rankings>>> Actress Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection Marion Bailey, “Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street)Rosalind Eleazar, “Misty Green” (A24)Sandra Hüller, “Fatherland” (Mubi)Julianne Moore, “The Debut” (A24) ***Inde Navarrette, “Obsession” (Focus Features) Oscar category page with rankings>>> Supporting Actor Image Credit: Anthony Dickenson Colman Domingo, “Michael” (Lionsgate)Paul Giamatti, “The Debut” (A24) ***John Leguizamo, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)Guy Pearce, “Ink” (Netflix)Sam Rockwell, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures) Oscar category page with rankings>>> Supporting Actress Image Credit: Bleecker Street [REDACTED], “You Can See Everything” (A24)Penélope Cruz, “The Invite” (A24)Anne Hathaway, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) ***Samantha Morton, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)Kate O’Flynn, “Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street) Oscar category page with rankings>>> Original Screenplay Image Credit: A24 “Club Kid” (A24)Jordan Firstman“The Debut” (A24)Jesse Eisenberg“Fjord” (Neon)Cristian Mungiu“Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street)Mike Leigh“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures) ***Martin McDonagh Adapted Screenplay Image Credit: A24 “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) Brian K. Vaughan, Denis Villeneuve“The Invite” (A24) ***Rashida Jones and Will McCormack“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo, Alberto Conejero“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)Christopher Nolan“Wildwood” (Laika)Chris Butler Casting Image Credit: Carla Oset/Netflix “Being Heumann” (Apple Original Films) ***Adam Caldwell, Bernard Telsey“Club Kid” (A24)Carmen Cuba“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)Francine Maisler“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)Eva Leira and Yolanda Serrano“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)John Papsidera Animated Feature Image Credit: Netflix “Forgotten Island” (DreamWorks Animation)Joel Crawford, Januel Mercado, Mark Swift“Ray Gunn” (Netflix)Brad Bird, John Lasseter, Lisa Beroud, David Ellison, Dana Goldberg“Tangles” (Independent Film Company)Leah Nelson“Toy Story 5” (Pixar)Andrew Stanton, Lindsey Collins, Jessica Choi“Wildwood” (Laika) ***Travis Knight, Sam Wilson Production Design Image Credit: Netflix “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***Patrick Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos, Shane Vieau“The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth” (Netflix)Donald Graham Burt“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)Roger Bellés, Judit Ferrer“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)Ruth De Jong, Larry Dias, Gene Serdena“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)Charles Wood, John Bush Cinematography Image Credit: Warner Bros. “Digger” (Warner Bros.)Emmanuel Lubezki“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***Linus Sandgren“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)Hoyte van Hoytema“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)Greig Fraser“You Can See Everything” (A24)David Bolen Costume Design Image Credit: Screenshot courtesy YouTube/Focus Features “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***Jacqueline West“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)Ana López Cobos“Michael” (Lionsgate)Marci Rodgers“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)Ellen Mirojnick“Sense and Sensibility” (Focus Features)Grace Snell Film Editing Image Credit: A24 “The Debut” (A24)Robert Nassau“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) Joe Walker“The Invite” (A24)Yorgos Mavropsaridis, Anthony Boys“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) ***Jennifer Lame“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)Mikkel E.G. Nielsen Makeup and Hairstyling Image Credit: ©Lions Gate/Courtesy Everett Collection “Digger” (Warner Bros.)“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***“Michael” (Lionsgate)“The Mosquito Bowl” (Netflix)“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) Sound Image Credit: Amazon MGM Studios “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)“Michael” (Lionsgate)“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) Visual Effects Image Credit: ©Columbia Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***“Godzilla Minus Zero” (Toho)“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)“Spider-Man: Brand New Day” (Sony Pictures)“Wildwood” (Laika) Original Score Image Credit: Courtesy of Apple TV “The Debut” (A24)Emile Mosseri“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***Hans Zimmer“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)Ludwig Göransson“Tenzing” (Apple Original Films)Rebekka Karijord“Wildwood” (Laika) Dario Marianelli Original Song Image Credit: Courtesy Bleecker Street “By Any Means” from “By Any Means” (Paramount Pictures)“This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from “The Debut” (A24) ***“Let Me Sell You a Dream” from “Musk” (Bleecker Street)“I Knew It, I Knew You” from “Toy Story 5” (Pixar)TBA song from “Wildwood” (Laika) Documentary Feature Image Credit: William Greaves Productions “The Disciple: A Wu-Tang Fable” (Netflix)Joanna Natasegara“Everest: The Other Side” (National Geographic)Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi“Musk” (Bleecker Street) Alex Gibney“Once Upon a Time in Harlem” (Neon)David Greaves, Liani Greaves, William Greaves“You Can See Everything” (A24) ***Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim International Feature Image Credit: Courtesy of The Barricades “Everytime” from Germany (1-2 Special)Dir. Sandra Wollner“Fjord” from Romania (Neon) Dir. Cristian Mingui“La Bola Negra” from Spain (Netflix) Dir. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo“Minotaur” from France (Mubi) ***dir. Andrey Zvyagintsev“Possible Love” from South Korea (Netflix)dir. Lee Chang-dong