Opinion: When it comes to housing, Budget 2027 should have one overriding test

As Budget 2027 approaches, Ireland’s housing debate risks returning to a familiar frustration. Too many households still cannot buy or rent at an affordable price, too many young people remain locked out of the market and too many communities are constrained by a shortage of homes in the right locations.That reality must remain at the centre of policy. However, if Budget 2027 is to be effective, the debate must move beyond the assumption that because the problem persists, every intervention has failed. Ireland is seeking to correct a structural housing deficit built up over more than a decade. The question is whether recent measures are moving supply in the right direction, and what must be done to turn that momentum into lasting delivery.The evidence suggests progress is being made, albeit from a low base and still below the level required. New home delivery fell to 4,575 units in 2013, the lowest level on record. By 2025, completions had reached approximately 36,300 homes, the highest annual figure since the Central Statistics Office (CSO) started the New Dwelling Completions series in 2011. READ MOREThis is not sufficient, but it is a material recovery from the postcrash low.Early 2026 data reinforces this point. The CSO reported 7,856 new dwelling completions in the first quarter, up 32.9 per cent on the same period in 2025 and the strongest first quarter on record. Apartment completions rose by 33.3 per cent, scheme dwellings (or homes in housing estates) by 34.5 per cent and single dwellings by 27.8 per cent, with every region recording an increase. These figures do not suggest every measure has been well designed, but they show supply is responding.Commencements are equally important because they point to the future pipeline. The sharp rise in 2024, supported by waivers on development levies and connection charges to utility infrastructure, contributed to stronger delivery in 2025 and should support completions through 2026. In the first quarter of 2026, 8,408 homes commenced, compared with 2,961 in the same period of 2025. This is a significant signal that targeted measures reducing upfront delivery costs can influence development decisions.This distinction matters for Budget 2027. Not all housing supports are equal. Broad demand-side measures in a supply-constrained market can add pressure if poorly targeted. However, buyer supports linked to new homes, such as Help to Buy and the First Home Scheme, can support the absorption of new schemes. Developers and funders need confidence that completed homes will sell at sufficient pace and value before committing to projects.The First Home Scheme illustrates this point. By the second quarter of 2026, more than 11,000 buyers had been approved and almost 6,000 purchases or builds supported since launch. The average support, which is an equity stake in your home taken by the State and repayable over time, was about €67,000, or 17 per cent of the average purchase price. This does not prove every purchase was additional, but it shows the scheme is materially bridging the gap between mortgage capacity, deposits and new-build prices for many households.Budget 2027 should therefore be judged less by the number of new measures it announces and more by whether it concentrates resources on the real constraints to delivery. The acute problem is not a lack of underlying demand. It is the difficulty of converting that demand into viable homes at scale. Infrastructure deficits, planning delays, limited serviced land, high construction costs, finance availability and weak apartment viability remain the central barriers.There has been a welcome policy shift towards these bottlenecks. Development levy and connection waivers, VAT reduction for apartments, enhanced deductions for construction and conversion, expanded homebuilding finance, infrastructure investment, the Housing Activation Office, the Land Development Agency’s enhanced mandate and urban regeneration initiatives are all supply-side in character. They will not deliver homes overnight, but they are directed at the delivery system rather than simply increasing purchasing power.Supports demonstrably linked to new supply should be retained. Measures that are poorly targeted, or create unnecessary deadweight cost, should be tightened or phased out. Temporary incentives should include clear sunset clauses and evidence tests so they do not become permanent by default. Above all, priority should be given to measures that improve viability, accelerate infrastructure, activate serviced land and make apartment development commercially deliverable again.A more geographically balanced recovery is also essential. National completions are improving, but supply remains uneven. Dublin and the mideast of the State have performed better than many regions, while parts of the west, border and midwest continue to fall below estimated requirements. Budget 2027 must connect housing targets to infrastructure, planning capacity and local delivery capability across the State.The scale of the challenge remains enormous. Sherry FitzGerald research estimates underlying annual demand at about 56,200 homes, rising towards 62,000 in the near term when accumulated shortages are considered. On that basis, even the improved 2025 output met only about two-thirds of annual demand. It would therefore be complacent to suggest the current trajectory is enough. It is not.But it would be equally wrong to ignore the signs of progress. The policy debate needs more discipline and less noise. Ireland does not need an ever-expanding list of housing incentives. It needs fewer, better-targeted measures, rigorously evaluated, clearly linked to additional supply and supported by the infrastructure and planning capacity required to turn permissions into homes.Budget 2027 should have one overriding test: will it help more homes get built, in the places they are needed, at a pace that begins to close the deficit? If yes, the measure deserves serious consideration. If no, it should not be added for political comfort or short-term optics. Housing policy must move from intervention to execution. The opportunity for Budget 2027 is to consolidate what is working, remove what is not and turn emerging momentum into a durable national recovery.Marian Finnegan is chief executive of estate agent Sherry FitzGerald