Opinion: What about that demographic dividend?

For decades, we’ve repeated this phrase: Mexico is a young country. For a growing economy, we had an ideal demographic dividend — a large proportion of people of working age compared to those who depend on workers. The INEGI 2025 Intercensal Survey, published last week, should give us pause for thought. Mexico remains a young country and maintains its demographic dividend — but it is being depleted faster than we had anticipated. Los datos de la Encuesta Intercensal el @INEGI_INFORMA dan información que nos debería llevar a una reflexión profunda sobre el cambio demográfico y sus implicaciones. Sobre eso mi columna en @El_Universal_Mx: https://t.co/njFGKqsJMN — Valeria Moy (@ValeriaMoy) September 30, 2026 The Intercensal Survey shows that in October 2025, our population stood at 130.9 million. The population in private households grew by 0.7% annually between 2020 and 2025, the slowest rate in the series dating back to 1990. In the first five-year period of the 1990s, the growth rate was 2.1% and the median age of Mexicans rose from 29 to 32 years. The good news: we remain a young population compared to other countries. The median age in the United States is 39 years, in Germany it is 45.5 years and in Japan it is 49.8 years. The bad news: during the same five-year period (2020-2025), Germany’s median age increased by 0.6 years, Japan’s by 2.1 years and Mexico’s by 3 years. Mexico remains much younger, but it is aging faster than both countries. Those aged 60 and older now account for 14.7% of the population, up from 12% in 2020. The most striking figure, however, is another one: the fertility rate fell from 1.9 children per woman in 2019 to 1.2 in 2024. In Mexico City, it is even lower, at 0.8. The fertility rate is equivalent to that of Japan, although we’ll have to wait and see if the trend holds. Being below the replacement rate — 2.1 children per woman — doesn’t mean the population will start to decline tomorrow, but the direction is clear and the pace is unusual. Mexico has reached this fertility level with a fraction of the per capita income of those countries. Mexico’s population surpasses 130 million even as fertility rate falls By the way, what did we do with that demographic dividend — that young population, ready to work and generate economic growth? The demographic dividend is not an automatic gift; it will generate economic returns only if that population develops its talents, works in productive jobs, saves and contributes to social security. The emigration data are significant. Between October 2020 and the same month in 2025, 1.26 million people emigrated, compared to 803,000 in the previous five-year period. It does not, however, account for households that emigrated in their entirety. Seven out of ten were men, and four out of ten were between the ages of 20 and 29. The tax burden will begin to increase. In 2025, half of all households had at least one member with non-labor income, compared to 38.5% in 2020, with transfer programs as the main source, followed by retirement benefits and pensions. The proportion of the population enrolled in public health services fell from 77.1% to 72.5%. More older adults, more transfer payments and less formal coverage — this is a combination that public finances will struggle to withstand. What can be done? A national care system with a real budget is urgently needed. It is the most direct path to enabling more women to have paid work. We must discuss how pensions will be financed, especially in a country with low economic growth. We will also need a health care system prepared to handle chronic diseases as well as quality education. Demographic data give us plenty of warning. And it’s already warned us. Valeria Moy, an economist, columnist and director of the think tank Mexican Institute for Competitiveness. Follow Moy on X at @ValeriaMoy. This article was translated, edited and republished with the permission of Valeria Moy, whose column regularly appears in the newspaper El Universal.