On a Box Office Weekend With Multiple Acclaimed Films, ‘Avengers: Endgame’ Could Top Them All

Movie theaters will not be lacking in quality films to offer customers this weekend. Along with the second weekend of Sony’s glowingly received horror film “Resident Evil,” new releases hitting theaters include A24’s “To Catch a Predator” drama “Primetime” starring Robert Pattinson, Universal/DreamWorks’ original animated movie “Forgotten Island,” and Paramount’s Brad Pitt survival thriller “Heart of the Beast,” all of which have received rave reviews from critics. But there’s a good chance they could all be topped on the box office charts by a re-release of “Avengers: Endgame.” Titled “Avengers: Endgame Encore,” Disney/Marvel Studios’ visually remastered reissue of its 2019 record-smashing blockbuster is projected to make at least $25 million at the domestic box office this weekend, with independent trackers and exhibition sources giving it a good chance at clearing $30 million. If it passes that higher figure, it will set a new record before inflation adjustment for the biggest weekend ever for a re-release, passing the $30.2 million of Disney’s 2011 3D re-release of “The Lion King.” Even if it is on the lower end of those projections, “Endgame Encore” could still take the No. 1 spot as “Resident Evil,” despite strong audience and critic reception, is currently projected to make $24 million in its second weekend for a 60% drop from its $60.1 million opening weekend. “Primetime,” which hits 2,800 locations this weekend, will be dueling with “Heart of the Beast” and “Forgotten Island” for the No. 3 spot on the charts, with all three movies projected for opening weekends in the high teens with a shot at clearing $20 million. That would be a better result for “Primetime,” which was produced by A24 on a $15 million budget while “Forgotten Island” and “Heart of the Beast” carry far higher budgets of around $80 million, with “Beast” produced by Temple Hill. Chris Evans in ‘Avengers: Endgame’ (Marvel Studios) Fueling the interest in “Endgame Encore” are multiple new mid-and-post-credit teasers for this winter’s wildly anticipated “Avengers: Doomsday,” which has already racked up more than $50 million in presales and is now expected to challenge the $360 million domestic opening weekend record of “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” and the $1.22 billion global opening record set by “Endgame” seven years ago. And if interest in this reissue extends beyond this weekend, “Endgame” could retake the hallowed all-time global box office record from “Avatar,” as it currently stands approximately $124 million behind the $2.92 billion lifetime gross of James Cameron’s 2009 sci-fi epic. Theaters won’t just be welcoming Thanos’ return to theaters for this bonus. “Endgame Encore” also marks the start of Disney’s “Infinity Vision” campaign, which will promote premium formats for both this reissue and “Doomsday” beyond Imax, which will not be supporting the latter due to its prior exclusivity engagement with Warner Bros. for “Dune: Part Three.” Because Imax has been devoting much of its screens and resources to movies like “The Odyssey” and “Dune 3” made by close director partners, Marvel is not getting the support from the world’s biggest premium format that it usually does. For the likes of Dolby, 4DX, D-Box and dozens of theater chains with in-house PLFs, this is an opportunity to get moviegoers to embrace other multiplex options and perhaps put a dent in the “Imax or bust” mentality that some exhibitors are concerned that a portion of its customer base may have when deciding whether to go to the theater. Robert Pattinson in “Primetime” (A24) “Primetime” is the latest film in A24’s efforts to expand its box office footprint following the studio record success of “Marty Supreme” last winter. While Timothée Chalamet was driving interest in that Josh Safdie thriller a year ago, the hype this time around is around Robert Pattinson, who comes into this film having already become a cinephile meme with his villainous turn in “The Odyssey.” That popularity among A24’s core audience base only grew once “Primetime” released its trailer, which has racked up 48 million views on the studio’s YouTube channel and which has already minted a meme of its own through Pattinson’s dead-on impression of “To Catch a Predator” host Chris Hansen and his catchphrase, “You see how this looks, right?” With a 90% Rotten Tomatoes score, it is expected to be a major Oscar contender with a likely Best Actor nomination for Pattinson. Without the advantage of the holiday corridor that “Marty” enjoyed, “Primetime” probably won’t get to the $96 million domestic total of that film. But Pattinson’s star power should drive continued turnout from coastal moviegoers under 45 over the next month. The question is whether that lead performance will bring in a wider audience or if director Lance Oppenheim’s highly stylized, surrealist nightmare approach to the rise and fall of “To Catch a Predator” will keep word-of-mouth contained. Brad Pitt in “Heart of the Wild” (Paramount) While “Primetime” focuses on the coasts, Paramount’s “Heart of the Beast” will focus more on rural states with director David Ayer’s tale of a Special Forces vet and his trauma-stricken combat dog who must brave the Alaskan wilderness after a plane crash. Critics have praised the lead performances from Pitt and the show-stealing German Shepherd, Uber, giving the film an 88% Rotten Tomatoes score. If it opens in the high teens, “Heart of the Beast” would open slightly above the $14.1 million launch of MGM/UA’s “Dog,” a Channing Tatum movie that also featured an Army protagonist and his combat dog but was a lighthearted dramedy that showcased Tatum’s signature charm compared to the more grizzled action hero bent that Pitt brings to “Beast.” But with a budget five times greater than “Dog,” “Beast” is going to need a lot of post-release buzz across demos, but particularly among conservative moviegoers, to get substantial ROI. DreamWorks/Universal Swap out conservatives with families, and the same can be said for “Forgotten Island,” the latest original animated theatrical release to brave an entertainment landscape that has not been kind to such films. This past spring, Pixar’s “Hoppers,” despite rave reception, didn’t get very far with $389.6 million grossed globally against a $150 million budget. “Forgotten Island” has half that budget, but could open to a third of the $45.3 million opening of “Hoppers” despite boasting a sterling 100% Rotten Tomatoes score with 48 reviews logged. While some critics noted that its manic, overstuffed nature might put off some adults, praise has been heaped upon H.E.R. and Liza Sobrano’s lead voice performances, the film’s heartfelt story of friendship and growing up, and its countless references to Filipino culture, traditions and folklore. But is any of that going to win over families who have time and time again shown up in droves for sequels and IP but, when it comes to original animation, have preferred to try new things on streaming? “Forgotten Island” is tracking well below the $35 million opening of DreamWorks’ fall 2024 sleeper hit “The Wild Robot,” which legged out to $143.9 million domestic and $334 million worldwide against a $75 million budget. To be fair, “The Wild Robot,” like fellow recent DreamWorks Animation title “The Bad Guys,” is a YA novel adaptation. But that only speaks to how difficult it is for Hollywood to sell parents and kids on something that isn’t familiar to them nowadays. The one thing “Forgotten Island” has going for it along with the rave reviews is that it will not have any significant family film competition until Warner Bros.’ “The Cat in the Hat” in early November — Laika’s October release “Wildwood” will be aimed more at an adult audience — so it will have time for word-of-mouth to spread if it can earn it.