New deal: On COP31 and lofty climate goals

The 31st Conference of Parties (COP) began this week in Antalya, Türkiye. Hosted by Türkiye and negotiations presided over by Australia, the run-up to the gathering saw ministerial delegations visit Fiji and Tuvalu. This was to serve as a stark reminder of the purpose of COPs, namely that it was small island nations that are most vulnerable to warming from rising greenhouse gas emissions. However, the opening days have belied this sense of urgency. Prominent world leaders, even from the European countries who as a group champion the cause most vociferously, have chosen to skip the meet. The agenda and pre-summit expectations suggest that the main concerns this year are likely to be about delivering on existing commitments such as delivering $300 billion a year by 2035, which was decided at COP29 in Baku, as well as the COP30 call to triple the adaptation finance during that interval. However, deciding how these climate funds will practically flow has been deferred to COP32. The second global stocktake, a periodic check on progress under the Paris Agreement, begins at COP31, but the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has dithered on a timeline for the next reports that will serve as the scientific push to policy makers to accelerate efforts towards keeping a rise in temperatures below 2°C, and more ambitiously 1.5°C.The previous edition of COP30 concluded without a formal roadmap away from fossil fuels — a step back from the COP28 consensus in Dubai. There is a voluntary roadmap ahead of COP31 but it is out of the formal negotiating text. In the background of the West Asia war, the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement and financial strain writ large over Europe, funds are a challenge as evidenced in the recent Loss and Damage fund approval to Nepal of $21 million when the ask is in billions. COP31 president, Murat Kurum has laid an electrification target, which is to raise electricity’s share from 23% of total energy consumption to 35% by 2035. India has already refused to sign such a pledge and insisted on predictable climate finance, technology transfer, and nationally determined approaches to climate mitigation. These negotiations have a character of their own and deliberating nations must strive to get nations to deliver on past promises rather than commit to new lofty targets. Published - November 13, 2026 01:49 am IST