More Republicans warn nominating Ken Paxton was a ‘mistake’ and expect Texas Senate seat to be lost

Polls are unfavorable for Texas attorney general and Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton. With 38 days until the midterm elections, some Republican politicians have all but conceded the Lone Star seat and remain haunted by the belief that the safer bet would have been to give the nomination to veteran congressman John Cornyn. Paxton isn’t gaining traction, not even after President Donald Trump himself urged voters at the unprecedented Republican convention in September in Dallas — his “Trumpapalooza” — to imagine that on November 3 they would be choosing him instead of the controversial Southern politician.If the election were held today, Democrat James Talarico, 37, and regarded as a rising star in the party, would reach the Senate with a narrow lead over Paxton: 47.6% to 44.7%, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average. Other outlets’ polls — such as Decision Desk HQ — open the gap further and give Talarico a 56% chance of beating Paxton in November.The atmosphere of division within Republican ranks does not help the president’s favored candidate. Over the weekend, two prominent party figures reproached Trump for backing Paxton’s nomination despite the establishment’s recommendation.Republican senator from North Carolina Thom Tillis told CNN that it had been a “colossal mistake”: “We would not be spending tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in Texas if Cornyn had won.”The same conclusion was reached by former George W. Bush adviser Karl Rove, speaking at a festival organized by The Texas Tribune: “If John Cornyn were the nominee, this race would be over.”Those positions are resonating across more corners of the party, in Washington and within Texas itself. Weeks after Trumpapalooza, for example, former state Republican representative Glenn Rogers said in a 30-second ad — paid for by a super PAC supporting Talarico — that he “will never support Ken Paxton and the last place he should be is the United States Senate.”This negative view of the attorney general, fueled largely by his past scandals, has hindered further fundraising for his campaign. At the end of June, Talarico had more than $21.5 million to advance his campaign, while Paxton had less than $1.8 million on hand, according to Federal Election Commission data.The contest for that seat has drawn national attention not only because of doubts about the level of support Paxton will receive from Republicans, but because suddenly the party could lose a statewide race in Texas for the first time since 1994 and, in the process, put at risk a Senate seat that until recently was considered safe.The scandalsIn recent years, as Texas attorney general, the headlines naming Paxton that eroded party support have included corruption scandals, an alleged affair, and his subsequent divorce.But by far the costliest was his impeachment before the state Senate in 2023 on more than a dozen charges, including abusing his powers as attorney general to benefit his friend and donor Nate Paul, an investor who was also under federal investigation. Paxton’s acquittal produced a split within the party, in the state and nationally, from which he has not fully recovered.This is one of the themes Talarico emphasizes in his ads to remind undecided Republican voters why they should vote for him. He also runs another campaign video showing Paxton taking a Montblanc pen from a tray at a metal detector while a voice says: “Vote for James Talarico [...] He won’t steal your pen.”But although the campaign has been aggressive from both sides, the candidates have not sat down for a face-to-face debate. Paxton has refused. Talarico has insisted he is willing to debate even on the conservative network Fox News, if the attorney general accepts.From Paxton’s campaign platform, the Republican has questioned the faith of his opponent — a Presbyterian seminarian in training — and has sought to instill fear in voters regarding Talarico. He has accused him, for example, of supporting gender transition treatments, an issue Paxton has opposed, and has called for an investigation into him: “Do you want a guy who voted to transition your kids?” he said in a speech at Trumpapalooza. In the same vein, he has also labeled him “the most radical Democrat” in the state and a “socialist.”But so far — amid a difficult economic and political reality for Republicans after two highly unpopular years of Trump’s administration — none of his campaign messages has propelled him to the lead in Senate polls.A narrow leadJust over a month from Election Day, there are similarities to the 2018 midterms, the first of Trump’s presidency. In November of that year, Republican senator Ted Cruz held on to his Senate seat despite some polls predicting a narrow lead for Beto O’Rourke. The result was a bitter disappointment for the Democrats.However, the difference between 2018 and 2026 is that voters are heading to the polls at a time when dissatisfaction with Trump’s tenure is higher and continuing to grow, in part because of a worsening economy — an issue he had promised to fix.To win a Senate majority, Democrats need to pick up four seats. An AP analysis says the original path involved holding Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire, and taking at least one Republican seat in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, or Ohio. But the political landscape — with higher inflation, rising gas prices, and the violent arrest of thousands of long-term migrants in the country — has opened new opportunities. Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer said last month that they now believe Talarico could deliver a seat that had once seemed only a long shot: Texas.AP notes that to win on November 3, Talarico needs to win over several types of voters: Republicans who see no alternative in Paxton and undecided Texas independents; to hold his bases in Houston, Dallas, and Austin; and to win back Latino voters in border counties who backed Trump in 2024.But he also needs a key bloc that did not support him in the party primary, which he contested against Representative Jasmine Crockett and whom the Democrat has visited at multiple rallies hoping to win over: Black Texans, who make up more than 13% of the state’s population and who wonder whether Talarico will have their interests at heart.Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition