Monsoon weakening: Drought threats high as rain defict stands at 13%

Skymet has warned that India's southwest monsoon is weakening, with rainfall likely to stay below normal through the rest of the season. The uneven pattern could deepen moisture deficits in several states even as eastern regions face spells of heavy rain.The developing weather pattern has allowed dry winds to dominate Punjab, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, Rajasthan. (Photo: Windy)India's 2026 southwest monsoon is showing increasing signs of weakness, with private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather warning that rainfall during the remainder of the season could remain significantly below normal.The agency has projected seasonal rainfall at around 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA), placing the monsoon in the below-normal category.According to Skymet's latest assessment, the outlook for the second half of the monsoon season is particularly concerning. Rainfall during August is expected to be around 92% of LPA, while September could see only 89% of normal rainfall, making it the weakest month of the season. The agency estimates a 60% probability of below-normal rainfall in August, rising to 70% in September, indicating a growing risk of drought-like conditions in several parts of the country as the monsoon approaches its withdrawal phase.The forecast aligns with the current rainfall situation. India's cumulative rainfall departure since June 1 remains at 13% below normal, reflecting uneven monsoon performance across the country.Skymet has identified Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh among the states most vulnerable to rainfall deficits. These regions could witness prolonged dry spells, affecting soil moisture, reservoir levels and kharif crop growth.In contrast, eastern India is expected to remain the monsoon's stronghold for the next few weeks. Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal and eastern Uttar Pradesh are likely to continue receiving good rainfall through the remainder of August.The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also indicated active monsoon conditions over eastern and central India due to a depression currently located over Jharkhand.Under its influence, very heavy rainfall is expected over Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and eastern Madhya Pradesh during the next 24 hours, while moderate to heavy rainfall will continue across eastern and central Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.Meanwhile, northwestern India remains under the influence of dry air. Although minor shifts in the monsoon trough could trigger isolated showers over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, Chandigarh and western Uttar Pradesh, rainfall coverage is expected to remain limited and most areas are likely to experience predominantly dry weather.Experts warn that the increasingly uneven distribution of rainfall may pose challenges for agriculture and water resources.While eastern states could face localized flooding from repeated rain spells, large parts of central and northwest India may struggle with worsening moisture deficits as the monsoon heads into September.- EndsPublished By: Sibu Kumar TripathiPublished On: Aug 19, 2026 07:30 IST