Midterm Power Shifts Could Reshape State Climate and Energy Policies

Scott Olson/Getty Images Get your news from a source that’s not owned and controlled by oligarchs. Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily. This story was originally published by the Inside Climate News and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. Democrats are poised to achieve trifectas—control of the governor’s office and both legislative chambers—in at least three states in this year’s midterm elections, and maybe even more. This matters because states play an outsize role in climate and energy policy. And when Democrats control state government, they often take substantial action. This isn’t a partisan statement. It reflects recent history in Illinois, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, New Mexico, and Virginia, which passed climate and energy legislation after Democrats gained control. The states now have laws designed to cut carbon emissions and increase the use of renewable energy. Each state has its own story, and I spoke this week with people monitoring the races. Headed into the election, Republicans have trifectas in 23 states, Democrats have them in 16 states and 11 states are split. Democrats have momentum, entering election season with a Republican president whose approval ratings are low, and Democrats have polling advantages on major issues, including concerns about consumer prices and access to healthcare. One leading factor is “grassroots anger” about many topics, said Bill Kramer, vice president and counsel at MultiState, a lobbying firm that tracks state issues and elections. The anger is “not particularly partisan,” he said. “But if you’re the incumbent party, that’s who [gets blamed], and right now Republicans control a lot more of the states than the Democrats do.” This landscape creates opportunities to advance climate and clean energy policy, said Caroline Spears, executive director of Climate Cabinet, an advocacy group that focuses on state-level issues and elections. State trifectas “are the most powerful tool for 2027 policy outcomes on clean energy,” she said. The outcome depends on the results of just a few races, Spears said. Fewer than 25 races out of more than 7,000 legislative seats could determine whether Democrats gain five new trifectas, or none at all, she said. Here are those five states, plus some others to watch. Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin are the most likely to shift from split control to Democratic trifectas. Since they’re in close proximity on the map, let’s call them the Northern Three. To regain a trifecta in Michigan after two years of split control, Democrats need to add four seats in the House, maintain a majority in the Senate and win the governor’s race. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, is polling ahead of US Rep. John James, a Republican, in the contest for governor. Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer cannot seek another term because of the state’s term limits. In Minnesota, Democrats control the governor’s office and Senate and are in a 67-67 tie in the House. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, a Democrat, is likely to prevail in the race for governor against House Speaker Lisa Demuth, a Republican. The winner will replace Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat, who decided not to seek re-election. The party had a trifecta until losing it when the 2024 elections led to a tie in the House. Wisconsin has new legislative maps following a state Supreme Court ruling that found the previous maps improperly favored Republicans. The new districts give Democrats a decent chance of gaining majorities in the House and Senate, where Republicans now hold majorities of 54-45 and 18-15, respectively. Democrat David Crowley holds a narrow polling lead in the governor’s race over Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany. Incumbent governor Tony Evers, a Democrat, chose not to run. Of the three states, Wisconsin has the most potential for rapid progress on climate and clean energy. The state hasn’t had a Democratic trifecta since 2010 under Gov. Jim Doyle and there is pent-up enthusiasm to take action. Wisconsin has plentiful wind power but has underachieved relative to its neighboring states in passing legislation that would encourage utility-scale and customer-owned renewable energy and battery energy storage. In basketball terms, Democrats picking up trifectas in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin would be like making free throws. Doing the same in Arizona and Pennsylvania would be like making three-pointers. For years, Arizona and Pennsylvania have been just out of reach for Democrats. The party has elected governors, but didn’t get full control of the legislature, which has constrained them. Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, is running for re-election and leads in polls over Republican US Rep. Andy Biggs. Republicans hold majorities of 33-27 and 17-13 in the state House and Senate, respectively. An outside observer may look at those narrow majorities and national fundamentals and think it’s easy to flip both chambers in Arizona, but people who follow the state say the path ahead for Democrats, especially in the Senate, is far from smooth. “I feel like every year the Democrats are saying they’re going to try to flip that Legislature, and they just never do,” Kramer said. In Pennsylvania, Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, is running for re-election and likely to win. His Republican opponent is Stacy Garrity, the state treasurer. Democrats hold a 103-100 majority in the House and Republicans have a 27-23 majority in the Senate. Like Arizona, the path to a trifecta in Pennsylvania looks simple, but Republicans have a strong position in Senate district races and are fighting to regain their majority in the House. “Those final couple of seats are really hard to flip,” Kramer said of Democrats’ chances in the Pennsylvania Senate. That said, plenty of people said the same thing about the Pennsylvania House before Democrats won a narrow majority in 2022 and then held on to it. The main difference is that Republicans have run the Senate since the 1994 election, which is a much longer run than the 12 years of House Republican control that preceded the shift in 2022. If Election Day turns out to be a rout for Democrats across the country, then it’s plausible that Arizona and Pennsylvania would be part of the national trend, giving the party hard-fought trifectas in each state. The policy opportunities are substantial. Arizona is rich in solar power, and clean energy advocates have long lamented that the state has underachieved when it comes to harnessing the economic and environmental opportunity of this resource. Pennsylvania is a leading natural gas producer and has a powerful fossil fuel lobby. The state has low levels of renewable energy development. Even modest changes to state policy could open the door to more diverse power sources, with new solar and battery projects. Nevada is a category of its own. This one comes down to the race for governor, with Gov. Joe Lombardo, a Republican, running for re-election against Attorney General Aaron Ford, a Democrat. Democrats have majorities in the state House and Senate. The only reason I didn’t put Nevada in the same category as Arizona and Pennsylvania is that Lombardo has the advantage of incumbency and has been ahead, or within the margin of error, in polls. The state has a history of surprising results, including Lombardo’s 2022 win over incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak. Neither Kramer nor Spears had a strong sense of which way the governor’s race is tilting. The states that fall short of being trifecta opportunities for Democrats include Georgia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Texas. If the party has a win for the ages, and Republicans suffer an apocalyptic defeat, then there’s a chance in one or more of those states, but the probability is low. Kansas is the one state where Republicans are likely to win a new trifecta. In the governor’s race, state Senate President Ty Masterson, a Republican, is leading in polls over state Sen. Cindy Holscher, a Democrat. Gov. Laura Kelly, a Democrat, cannot run because of term limits. Kansas has a robust clean energy economy, with ample wind energy generation, but the state has shown little interest in passing laws to reduce emissions and support renewable energy. Republicans also hope to attain trifectas in many of the same states that are in Democrats’ sights. If Republicans have a better-than-expected election nationwide, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin could become new trifectas for the party. But at this point in the election season, the big picture is that Democrats are poised to gain ground. The main question is simply how much.