Melaka polls talks expose fault lines in Malaysia's shifting political alliances

JOHOR BAHRU: Buoyed by electoral victories in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, the Barisan Nasional (BN)-Perikatan Nasional (PN) partnership heads into the Melaka state election with momentum, with analysts tipping it to deliver another setback to Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.But beneath the electoral gains, cracks are emerging.Even before campaigning officially begins on nomination day this Saturday (Oct 31), disputes over seat allocations have exposed tensions within the partnership, particularly among BN's longstanding component parties.Last Saturday, leaders of the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) walked out of BN's Melaka candidate announcement, protesting what they said was their party's marginalisation in seat negotiations.MCA president Wee Ka Siong said seats previously contested by the party had been allocated to others without proper consultation, despite its decades-long partnership with BN."You want new friends, but your old friends, allies who have stood by you for decades … So for our party's dignity we walked out," Wee told reporters outside the venue.MCA is understood to have been allocated just two seats, down from the seven it contested in the previous state election.Across the political divide, Anwar's Pakatan Harapan (PH) faces its own tensions over possible cooperation with former ally-turned-rival Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu). The announcement of the candidates and launch of the Pakatan Harapan Melaka state election machinery at Hang Jebat Stadium in Melaka on Oct 24, 2026. (Photo: Facebook/Anwar Ibrahim) The prospect has drawn resistance from figures within PH component party Democratic Action Party (DAP), who remain opposed to reconciliation following Bersatu's role in the so-called Sheraton Move in 2020 that brought down the PH federal government led by Mahathir Mohamad. The move saw Bersatu's departure from PH and more than 30 Members of Parliament in PH defecting, bringing the government down after just 22 months. Former Melaka DAP chairman Damian Yeo has threatened to quit the party, and politics altogether, rather than accept an electoral pact with Bersatu."I would rather work with a known enemy than a friend who previously stabbed me in the back," he reportedly told news outlet The Star.While Melaka is a state-level contest, the seat-sharing disputes have laid bare a broader challenge confronting Malaysia's evolving political alliances: Reconciling electoral pragmatism with longstanding rivalries and competing interests.How these tensions play out could offer an early test of whether the alliances can hold together ahead of the next general election due by February 2028.Analysts interviewed by CNA point to two distinct challenges: BN-PN must balance the competing demands of its partners despite recent electoral gains, while PH faces the politically sensitive prospect of working with a party whose defection helped topple its previous federal administration.Beyond these political fault lines, however, analysts say local issues and perceptions of the incumbent state government's performance could prove decisive in shaping voter sentiment."Whether the current state government has done a good job, the voters will ultimately decide if it wants to reward (incumbent Melaka chief minister Ab Rauf Yusoh) with a second term. It will be a difficult battle for Anwar's PH," said political analyst Oh Ei Sun, principal adviser at the Pacific Research Centre. MCA chief Wee Ka Siong posing with UMNO state assemblyman Mohd Noor Helmy Abdul Halem. The latter has garnered popularity from netizens for his hands-on approach in resolving local municipal issues. (Photo: Facebook/Wee Ka Siong) MCA PROTEST EXPOSES WIDER BN-PN POWER STRUGGLEOn the surface, BN-PN cooperation in Melaka remains on track, following the formula that delivered electoral victories in Johor and Negeri Sembilan.But MCA's public protest over seat allocations has exposed strains within BN as it accommodates its new electoral partner.Days after MCA leaders walked out of BN's candidate announcement, party president Wee Ka Siong met BN chairman and United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and other coalition leaders to convey the party's dissatisfaction.Wee subsequently confirmed that MCA would contest the two seats allocated to it, after receiving assurances that the party's interests would not be overlooked."We were given the assurance that the representation of the Chinese community and MCA will not be sidelined, and will continue in a manner that needs to be better arranged," he reportedly said.Machang Member of Parliament Wan Ahmad Fayhsal Wan Ahmad Kamal, from PN component Parti Wawasan Negara (Wawasan), described MCA's grievances as "an internal matter for BN" to resolve."PN's position is that we will contest seven seats (in Melaka). Negotiations remain ongoing, but PN remains committed to electoral cooperation with BN," he told CNA. (From left) Parti Wawasan Negara's Hamzah Zainudin, Barisan Nasional (BN) chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and BN Rantau candidate Mohamad Hasan celebrate at the UMNO headquarters in Seremban, Negeri Sembilan on Aug 1, 2026. (Photo: CNA/Fadza Ishak) Analysts, however, believe the MCA-BN dispute is unlikely to derail the BN-PN partnership.Former deputy international trade and industry minister Ong Kian Ming, who has resigned from DAP, said MCA has limited room to manoeuvre, given its reliance on UMNO and Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), PN's largest component party, to secure Malay votes."MCA knows that its fortunes are tied together with UMNO and even PAS, in terms of winning the Malay vote, in order for it to win the state seats in Melaka and, more importantly, state and parliamentary seats in GE16," said Ong, an adjunct professor at Taylor's University."The worst thing which can happen is if BN and PAS / Wawasan overlap in one or two state seats in Melaka but even this is unlikely given the stakes involved," he added.Beyond MCA's grievances, however, a bigger contest is unfolding over the balance of power between BN and PN.Seat-sharing negotiations have reportedly been fraught, with PN seeking more than the seven seats currently under discussion. BN, meanwhile, is expected to contest 21 of Melaka's 28 state seats.The bargaining has also extended beyond Melaka. A BN leader, Nur Jazlan Mohamed, has reportedly called on PAS to allocate UMNO one-third of the seats in the PN-governed states of Terengganu, Kedah, Kelantan and Perlis. Analysts say these competing demands reflect a broader struggle over which coalition will wield greater influence within the partnership, particularly in negotiations over leadership and power-sharing ahead of GE16.Political scientist Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) said PN's push for more seats in Melaka could reflect PAS' stronger presence there compared with Johor and Negeri Sembilan.Nevertheless, she said PAS recognises that it must play the role of "junior partner" in states such as Melaka, where BN remains the dominant force.Whether PAS would accept a similar arrangement in states it governs, particularly its northern strongholds, remains an open question."There may be an understanding that BN will not make a claim in the states held by PAS later on," she added. CAN PH AND BERSATU PUT SHERATON MOVE BEHIND THEM?While BN-PN's tensions centre largely on seat allocations and political influence, a possible PH-Bersatu partnership faces a more fundamental obstacle: Overcoming the mistrust stemming from their bitter political split.PH has announced plans to contest 21 of Melaka's 28 state seats, with analysts suggesting the remaining seven could be left to Bersatu candidates.But no formal alliance has been announced, and the prospect of cooperation remains politically sensitive.Resistance has been particularly pronounced within the DAP, where some figures have openly opposed working with their former ally.Taylor’s University’s Ong said the proposed cooperation lacks a compelling political rationale beyond a shared desire to challenge BN-PN."The actual narrative for this cooperation can only be worked out tentatively since there is no larger narrative which unites PH and Bersatu beyond 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend'," said Ong. Former Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin arrives at the Kuala Lumpur Courts Complex together with Bersatu’s Azmin Ali to continue his trial on seven charges linked to the Jana Wibawa programme, Aug 27, 2026. (Photo: CNA/Fadza Ishak) He added that PH leaders and supporters are unlikely to have forgotten the roles played by Bersatu leaders Muhyiddin Yassin and Azmin Ali in the Sheraton Move, particularly after both were branded "traitors" in the lead-up to the 2022 general election.Yet some analysts believe electoral pragmatism could ultimately outweigh those grievances.Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, said Bersatu could offer PH a way to make inroads among Malay voters, which Anwar's coalition has struggled to do in recent state elections.PH's heavy defeats in Johor and Negeri Sembilan have been attributed in part to strong Malay-Muslim support for the BN-PN partnership."There is a lot of displeasure, especially from DAP members who are still reeling from the backstabbing they experienced during the Sheraton Move, but if Bersatu can deliver Malay votes (away from BN-PN), then even the DAP members will rethink their stance," Azmi said.Syaza of IIUM similarly argued that PH has little to lose from exploring cooperation, given its weakened electoral position.But she questioned how much Bersatu could realistically contribute.The party – which has been weakened by internal divisions – lost its deposits in 10 of the 16 seats it contested in Johor and 23 of the 24 seats it contested in Negeri Sembilan. Candidates forfeit their deposits if they fail to secure at least 12.5 per cent of the votes cast in their constituency.Syaza said Bersatu's poor electoral showing raises doubts over whether it can deliver the Malay votes PH is seeking, particularly compared with Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS)."The calculation right now for PH is to get more Malay votes and Bersatu could bring (this to the table) but ultimately, Bersatu is not (as effective as PAS) in garnering Malay vote support. Is this partnership worth alienating some members of its support base?" she said. MELAKA'S BIGGER TEST: CAN ELECTORAL PACTS BECOME LASTING ALLIANCES?Beyond the seat-sharing disputes, the Melaka election will test whether Malaysia's shifting political alliances can translate their electoral strategies into voter support, and potentially lay the groundwork for cooperation ahead of the next general election.Wawasan's Wan Ahmad Fayhsal expressed confidence that the strong Malay support for BN-PN seen in Johor and Negeri Sembilan would carry over to Melaka."Majority of Malays in Malaysia would like very much to see BN-PN cooperation to be realised in Melaka (and the GE). The wave is real … I think Melaka voters already have clarity on what they want in the upcoming state polls," he said.Analyst Ong predicted that the BN-PN partnership would secure more than the 21 seats BN won in the 2021 Melaka election.He argued that a key weakness for PH and its potential partner Bersatu was the lack of prominent, credible leaders to rival BN's line-up. Melaka caretaker Chief Minister Ab Rauf Yusoh is seen here at a Barisan Nasional event. (File photo: Facebook/Ab Rauf Yusoh) Ong cited incumbent chief minister Ab Rauf Yusoh and Duyong assemblyman Mohd Noor Helmy Abdul Halem as examples of BN politicians who had built strong local profiles in the past term."Former PH Chief Minister, Adly Zahari, has also not distinguished himself in his state leadership of PH and as state assemblyman of Bukit Katil, a marginal seat which he is likely to lose," he added.But beyond the immediate contest, analysts say Melaka could offer an early indication of how Malaysia's political parties might position themselves for the next general election, as they weigh the benefits of cooperation against longstanding rivalries and competing ambitions.Syaza said the election would be particularly challenging for Anwar's PH, given Melaka's electorate, which is more than 60 per cent Malay."The BN-PN partnership works because of the support from Malays. At this point, Anwar should just be looking at not losing more ground," she said."This will give him some momentum to build back PH's support among its supporter base – the non-Malays and the urban Malays (for the next GE)," she added.