Lula’s Victory Preserves Kremlin Ties

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s re-election preserved an important relationship for Moscow just as Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted African leaders at the Kremlin.“We welcome Mr. Lula’s victory,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday, Oct. 26, praising the Brazilian president’s contribution to bilateral relations and the BRICS grouping. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.Three days later, Russia concluded a summit attended by delegations from 48 African countries, including 22 heads of state, according to the Kremlin. Its declaration called for closer economic and security cooperation, opposing unilateral sanctions and the unlawful seizure of sovereign assets. The developments showcase a continuing challenge for Ukraine and its allies: Despite Russia’s invasion, Moscow retains governments willing to maintain trade, participate in its diplomatic forums, and resist Western efforts to isolate it.Lula’s approach to Moscow is personal and practicalLula has spoken openly about the value he places on his relationship with Putin.During a May 2025 meeting at the Kremlin, he praised the Russian president’s attentive approach to their discussions and the dialogue between their foreign ministers. He was visiting Moscow for the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, joining other foreign leaders at the commemorations while Russia’s war against Ukraine continued. His reluctance to confront Moscow has also surfaced outside discussions about Ukraine. After Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny died in an Arctic penal colony in February 2024, Lula urged an investigation before assigning responsibility. Other Topics of Interest FSB Accuses 76-Year-Old Communist of Spying for Ukraine A party colleague disputes the FSB’s claims, while local reporting suggests the case may concern a publicly announced pharmaceutical project. “Why the rush to accuse?” he asked, arguing that conclusions should await the results of an autopsy. His remarks contrasted with Western leaders who held the Kremlin responsible. Commercial interests only serve to reinforce that diplomatic caution.During an Aug. 4 telephone conversation, Lula and Putin discussed Russian diesel and fertilizer supplies, alongside cooperation in energy, science, technology, and shipbuilding. Brazil’s presidency said both leaders intended to continue working together in BRICS. Those supplies matter to Brazil’s economy. Its agriculture ministry says imports account for 93% of fertilizer consumption, with Russia and China leading the country’s supply. Restricting those relationships would therefore present practical challenges for Brazilian agriculture. A setback for Trump’s regional ambitionsLula won the Oct. 25 runoff with 51.79% of valid votes against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48.21%, according to Brazil’s electoral court. The result secured a fourth presidential term, and a second consecutive term since his return to office in 2023. It also interrupted a regional trend toward governments aligned with US President Donald Trump.Christopher Sabatini, director of Chatham House’s Latin America Program, described Bolsonaro’s defeat as a setback for a White House that had hoped to consolidate a network of conservative governments across the hemisphere. Lula nevertheless faces conservative majorities in both houses of Brazil’s Congress, which could constrain his domestic agenda. Trump responded by questioning the election. On Thursday, Oct. 29, according to Al Jazeera, he called the contest a “disgrace,” while maintaining that he had not taken sides. His remarks followed Bolsonaro’s departure for the US and unsupported allegations that the vote had been stolen. Such tensions create an opening for Moscow and Beijing. Lula can present those relationships as evidence that Brazil has alternatives to Washington, particularly when US pressure is perceived as interference in Brazilian sovereignty.The economic relationships differ substantially. Brazilian exports to China reached $100 billion in 2025, compared with $38 billion to the US, according to Chatham House. Russia’s importance rests more heavily on particular commodities and cooperation in diplomatic forums. BRICS keeps Russia at the tableLula’s re-election provides continuity for BRICS, which he helped establish during his earlier presidency.While Bolsonaro had questioned Brazil’s role in the grouping, Lula supports expanding financial cooperation, including greater use of national currencies in trade. His victory reduces the prospect of a Brazilian retreat, although the members’ differing economic and geopolitical interests remain. For Moscow, Brazil’s participation helps keep BRICS broader than a gathering of Russia’s closest security partners. It places Putin’s government alongside major economies that also maintain extensive relationships with Europe and the US.Still, there are limits to that accommodation. Putin did not attend the 2025 BRICS summit in Rio in person as Brazil could not provide assurances concerning the International Criminal Court warrant for his arrest.Nevertheless, continued engagement provides Russia with opportunities to negotiate, trade, and influence international debates without first ending its war against Ukraine.In Africa, Putin seeks partners and investment opportunitiesThis week’s Moscow summit followed a similar approach.Putin presented Russia as a partner in a multipolar international order, invoking Soviet support for African anti-colonial movements. He said Russia had supplied 13 million metric tons, approximately 14.3 million US tons, of grain to Africa in the first nine months of 2026, according to ABC News.He also highlighted educational and diplomatic ties, saying approximately 40,000 African students were studying in Russia and that Moscow had opened eight embassies on the continent since the previous summit in 2023.The economic pitch extended beyond trade. Putin said Russian companies were interested in moving some production operations to African countries, explicitly linking that interest to sanctions against Russia’s economy and businesses.He called for guarantees protecting Russian investments but did not identify particular factories, destinations, or a relocation timetable. Burundian President Évariste Ndayishimiye, who chairs the African Union, meanwhile urged investment that would help African economies move beyond exporting raw materials and importing finished goods. The summit’s declaration emphasized cooperation in nuclear energy, critical minerals, agriculture, and security. Its opposition to unilateral sanctions also aligned with Moscow’s position on Western restrictions. Russia’s outreach addresses African demands for investment, security, and greater representation in international institutions. It also allows the Kremlin to present itself as a defender of sovereignty abroad while violating Ukraine’s.Kyiv has doubtsIn spite of cooperating with the Kremlin, Lula has encouraged Putin to negotiate with President Volodymyr Zelensky and has publicly said that he asked the Russian leader to end the war. Several African countries have expressed diplomatic support for Kyiv, including Ghana, Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire, and Zambia. They were among 14 African states that endorsed the communiqué from the 2024 Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland, reaffirming support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Ghana and Kenya have also backed Ukraine-related resolutions at the UN. Yet, Kyiv remains unconvinced.In September, Zelensky criticized the absence of a consistently strong position from countries including Brazil and South Africa, arguing that they possess influence over Russia and could use it to help secure peace. Lula’s re-election and the African summit illustrate the difficulty of that appeal. Governments may favor negotiations while prioritzing their commercial and diplomatic relationships with Moscow.For Putin, those relationships provide room to maneuver. Even if these countries don’t endorse the invasion, continued trade, diplomatic access, and resistance to sanctions help sustain Russia’s international position while the deadly fighting continues.