Lula ahead in polls for Brazil’s first-round vote; runoff likely

BRAZlL. A flag in support of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the Workers' Party (PT) candidate for presidential re-election, waves during a rally one day before the general election, in Brasilia, Brazil, October 3, 2026. Mateus Bonomi/Reuters If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes on Sunday, October 4, the two frontrunners advance to a second-round runoff on October 25 SAO PAULO, Brazil – A series of polls on Saturday, October 3, showed Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva slightly ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro before Sunday’s first-round vote, and a close race in a likely runoff between the leftist incumbent and his right-wing challenger. If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes – which exclude blank and null ballots – on Sunday, October 4, the two frontrunners advance to a second-round runoff on October 25. CNT/MDA POLL First round (valid votes): Lula 47.8%, Bolsonaro 42.1%, Augusto Cury 3.6%, Ronaldo Caiado 3.4%, Renan Santos 1.7%, Romeu Zema 0.9% Runoff: Lula 47.3%, Bolsonaro 43.1% MDA surveyed 2,007 people from September 30 to October 2; margin of error of 2.2 percentage points DATAFOLHA First round (valid votes): Lula 45%, Bolsonaro 42%, Caiado 4%, Santos 3%, Cury 3%, Zema 1% Runoff: Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 46% Datafolha surveyed 4,006 people from October 2-3; margin of error 2 percentage points QUAEST POLL First round (valid votes): Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 45%, Cury 3%, Santos 3%, Caiado 3% Runoff: Bolsonaro 44%, Lula 42% Quaest surveyed 3,702 people from October 2-3; margin of error 2 percentage points ATLASINTEL/BLOOMBERG POLL First round (valid votes): Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 44.1%, Santos 4.6%, Cury 2.1%, Caiado 1.4% Runoff: Lula 47.6%, Bolsonaro 47.4% AtlasIntel surveyed 4,945 people from September 27 to October 2; margin of error 1 percentage point – Rappler.com How does this make you feel? Loading