Local elections: Coalitions are here to stay

Next month's elections are unlikely to produce dramatic political realignment, but they could reinforce a new era of shared governance. South Africans will go to the polls on 4 November with the country once again being told that the local government elections could mark a turning point. Some analysts have described them as the “most significant elections since democracy”. That may be true in terms of the political uncertainty surrounding them, but significance does not always come from uncertainty. The more things change, the more they stay the same. LIVE interactive map, latest news, multimedia and more! View Map The central contest is unlikely to be determined by a dramatic national realignment. Instead, the elections will probably confirm a trend that has been developing for some time: the weakening of outright majorities and the normalisation of coalition government. Voters may punish parties for poor service delivery, internal conflict and unconvincing local leadership, but dissatisfaction does not automatically produce a single alternative capable of governing alone. The most probable outcome is, therefore, a mixed one. The governing party is likely to retain a substantial presence across the country, but with reduced dominance in several important urban centres. The DA should remain competitive in municipalities where it has established organisational strength and a recognisable governing record. Other parties, including the EFF and smaller regional formations, are likely to retain enough support to determine who governs, even where they do not win outright. This will make the post-election period as important as election day itself. The real contest will begin once the votes have been counted, when parties must decide whether their campaign promises were merely slogans, or whether they are prepared to compromise in the public interest. Coalitions are not inherently unstable. They become unstable when parties treat them as arrangements for acquiring positions, rather than as agreements for delivering services. South Africans have already seen the costs of immature coalition politics: shifting alliances, threatened motions of no confidence, disputes over mayoral positions and councils unable to make consistent decisions. Voters must therefore judge parties by their willingness to publish coalition principles, respect agreements and accept accountability when those arrangements fail. eThekwini is likely to be the metro where the greatest uncertainty is concentrated. The participation of the uMkhonto weSizwe party introduces a new variable into an already competitive political environment. The party’s performance could alter the balance between established formations and force a reconsideration of existing alliances. It may not necessarily emerge as the largest party, but even a meaningful foothold could make it a decisive coalition partner. That possibility will encourage established parties to compete aggressively for support in KwaZulu-Natal. Yet, a fragmented result in eThekwini would not automatically bring better government. It would merely create an opportunity for better government. On 4 November, voters will cast ballots for councillors. In the days afterwards, parties will reveal whether they have earned the responsibility of governing together. The country does not need perfect agreement. It needs mature disagreement, dependable institutions and coalitions built around the ordinary work of local government. Without that, the more things change, the more citizens will remain trapped in the same old cycle of promises, instability and disappointment.