LEADERSHIP LEAPS: Fikile Mbalula’s path to higher office faces new hurdles from ANC turmoil

It is a recurring fact throughout our democratic history that the position of secretary-general of the ANC is one of the most pressured jobs in the country. Fikile Mbalula is probably under the most intense pressure of his political career. His response could well determine whether he can ever enter the Union Buildings.Mbalula has suddenly found himself as the face of two political dynamics that could completely change the trajectory of his party.The first is yesterday’s Electoral Court defeat, which means the party will not be able to field candidates in some towns and metros for the local elections. The ANC could well lose any chance of retaining power in some places as a direct result.Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Dr Nobuhle Nkabane at the 5th National General Council of the African National Congress held at Birchwood Hotel in Boksburg on 11 December 2025. (Photo: Felix Dlangamandla) The second, his defamation action against Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma after she claimed he paid cash to ANC delegates during the party’s 2022 conference, could well contain enough political bullets to do him serious damage.Worse, it is likely the real target of her claims is not him, but President Cyril Ramaphosa. Which means that if he does not prevail in this dispute, Ramaphosa himself could be vulnerable. President Cyril Ramaphosa and Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma. (Photo: Musa Masilela ANC) The first problem, the Electoral Court defeat, concerns his ultimate responsibility as the equivalent of the chief accounting officer in the ANC. This means the party’s failure to fully comply with the Electoral Commission’s requirements, and thus its loss of seats in November, could well be landed at his door.Many ANC councillors could be about to lose their positions, their power, their patronage and their livelihoods because of this simple, technical mistake.And while there are several steps a party has to go through to legally register its candidates, on the face of it there can be no excuse for failing to do this properly. All other serious parties were able to go through the same process with no problems.Blame gameHowever, it is unlikely Mbalula will be left to carry the blame for this alone. While it has not been publicly stated, it is very likely the main reason this happened is that ANC structures, the regions and provinces, provided many of their details very late. This might well be because they wanted to stop Mbalula as a person, and Luthuli House as the national ANC, from editing their list. They wanted to prevent any of their choices from being removed.Dada Morero, Mayor of Johannesburg. (Photo: City of Johannesburg) The fiasco that saw the ANC being unable to announce mayoral candidates for metros shows how intense these internal dynamics are (as is the continued disastrous tenure of Dada Morero as Johannesburg mayor, despite the fact Loyiso Masuku is the leader of the ANC’s Joburg region).This shows how the real culprit in this is infighting within the ANC itself. Thus, Mbalula might well say that this is really the fault of other ANC structures.In the time-honoured way of the ANC, in public everyone will agree to “share responsibility”. This is a solution everyone can live with, because there will be no consequences for anyone.However, it could still come to haunt him next year. While Mbalula has not explicitly said he wants the top ANC job in December next year, it is often presumed that he does have serious ambitions. Payback?With Ramaphosa having to leave as president in 2029, he might well hope Ramaphosa would reward him for his long-term support by throwing his weight behind him. And, with Deputy President Paul Mashatile still not having been seen in public for six weeks, he might believe this is an important moment to make his mark. Paul Mashatile (Deputy President) during day 2 of the African National Congress National Executive Committee at Birchwood Hotel on January 25, 2026 in Johannesburg. (Photo: Gallo Images / Sharon Seretlo) However, his opponents will still use this electoral list failure against him. In particular, those who lost their positions because of this could easily be encouraged to hold him personally responsible, no matter where the truth lies. That could well lead to a powerful and motivated group of people who are able to prevent him from mounting a strong campaign. At the same time, he might also emerge as the face of Dlamini-Zuma’s claims about vote-buying in the party. Here, the real target might be Ramaphosa, rather than Mbalula. Dlamini Zuma has been very public about her feelings towards Ramaphosa. In December 2022 she was one of only four ANC members to vote to continue Parliament’s investigation into the Phala Phala saga (the others were Mosebenzi Zwane, Mervyn Dirks and Supra Mahumapelo).Former President Jacob Zuma addresses supporters at Alexandra Stadium on February 7, 2024, in Johannesburg. (Photo: Gallo Images / City Press / Tebogo Letsie) And before that, of course, in 2017 she ran against Ramaphosa for the leadership of the party. She appears to share her antipathy towards Ramaphosa with the leader of MK, Jacob Zuma. Certainly, this claim furthers his aims of weakening Ramaphosa and all who sail with him.However, her main claim appears to be based on one single affidavit that has been sharply questioned as evidence by his lawyers. Also, Dlamini Zuma cannot emerge from this case blameless. As Mbalula’s lawyers have argued, if she was aware of this incident of vote buying, why did she not raise it before? And why is she raising it now?Political motiveNo matter what she says, she has a political motive that she cannot hide.Strangely, this case might well strengthen Mbalula, if he handles it correctly. As Ramaphosa is inferred to be implicated in this vote buying, or to have at least benefitted from it, so he might have to defend Mbalula.Also, Mbalula might well claim in ANC meetings that Dlamini Zuma is playing a political role for Zuma and MK, and thus he is defending the entire ANC in this case. That might well resonate with people in the ANC who oppose Zuma and believe MK is a big threat to them.Gwede Mnatashe at the African National Congress (ANC) 2026 Local Government Elections Manifesto launch in Diepsloot on August 23, 2026 in Johannesburg. (Photo: Gallo Images / Sharon Seretlo) Nine years ago, when this writer tried to sum up the decade in which Gwede Mantashe had been the secretary-general of the ANC, we suggested he had been “at the centre of the ANC’s gravity field”. So it is with Mbalula. The problems of the party’s internal structures, the difficulties in facing outside threats (even if those come from a member of the ANC), all of them come to the door of the secretary-general’s office.Mbalula is now face to face with that reality.And will now know how difficult it could be to achieve higher office from here as a result. DM