ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 17, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: It remains unclear whether Ukrainian forces can use SpaceX’s low-earth orbit satellite communication technology (Starlink and Starshield) to intercept Russian jet-powered drones as of October 17. The Ukrainian military officially refuted Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov’s exaggerated battlefield claims from October 16. US President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order on the night of October 16 that waives key sanctions, restrictions, and tariff provisions against Russia from the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act – a decision that will help Russia finance and protract the war in Ukraine. Polish authorities warn that Russia may escalate its sabotage attempts and provocations against Polish logistics infrastructure, likely in an attempt to disrupt the transportation of Western aid to Ukraine during Winter 2026-2027. Ukrainian forces recently advanced east of Kramatorsk, and Russian forces recently advanced north of Kostyantynivka. Russia launched 332 drones and an unspecified number of missiles and Banderol/Dan-T loitering munitions against Ukraine overnight. See the original here.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.