ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 9, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: US President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 9 to waive sanctions on Russian diesel to increase diesel supply to the United States’ and global markets — a decision which will fund Russia’s war effort and protract Russia’s war in Ukraine. Montenegrin law enforcement authorities detained Mikhail Zvinchuk — the founder of the Russian ultranationalist Telegram channel “Rybar” — in Risan, Bay of Kotor, Montenegro on the morning of October 9. Russian officials and milbloggers responded with outrage and urged the Russian government to take retaliatory measures, including reciprocally detaining US and European nationals, in response to Zvinchuk’s arrest. The Montenegrin Police Directorate deported Zvinchuk and his associates to Russia shortly after their detention on October 9 despite Zvinchuk being under British sanctions and being an internationally wanted person by the US government. Ukrainian forces conducted a second long-range strike against a Yandex (Russia’s closest analog to Google) data center in Kaluga Oblast on October 9. Russia is likely attempting to indigenize the production and assembly of key Geran-type strike drone components in cooperation with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes against Russian defense industrial facilities and oil infrastructure in Russia overnight on October 8 to 9. Russian forces launched 136 drones against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian forces recently advanced northeast of Lyman and east of Oleksandrivka. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. See the original here.