ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 6, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: US officials are presenting a list of topics, including security guarantees and European security architecture, for upcoming negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, as issues that the United States, Europe, Ukraine, and Russia agree to discuss. Russia’s frequently reiterated positions on these topics, however, remain incompatible with the official positions and interests of the United States, Ukraine, and Europe. An unidentified actor is conducting a coordinated campaign of hoax bomb threats targeting European commercial flights, airports, and media outlets, likely to disrupt European society and impose economic costs. European states have not yet attributed this coordinated campaign to a specific actor, but it advances the Kremlin’s military and cognitive campaigns against Europe and is consistent with Russian approaches, which ISW assessed in two papers published in September 2026. The Russian government continues to reduce its civil servants’ staffing level in order to cut non-essential social spending amid rising budget deficits. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northwestern Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian forces struck one of the largest oil refineries in southern Russia on the night of November 5 to 6. Russia launched 227 drones against Ukraine overnight. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. See the original here.