Israeli Arabs, Palestinians view path to coalition through political clout - analysis

OCTOBER 30, 2026 09:30Israel’s October 27 parliamentary elections have left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing a struggle to remain in office, with neither his bloc nor the opposition securing the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset. A record showing by Arab parties has placed their lawmakers at the center of the battle over who governs next.For more stories from The Media Line go to themedialine.orgWith the vote count completed Thursday, preliminary results gave Netanyahu’s bloc 53 seats, down from 68 in the outgoing Knesset, while the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot held 48. The Joint List won 11 seats and Ra’am eight, giving the two Arab-led parties a combined 19 seats, nearly double their previous representation. Official certification is expected November 4.Together, the opposition and Arab parties would command 67 seats, enough to replace Netanyahu if they could agree on a governing arrangement. But the arithmetic masks deep political divisions. Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman have previously rejected reliance on Arab parties, while Democrats leader Yair Golan has urged cooperation to remove Netanyahu.For Palestinian citizens of Israel, the results reflect political mobilization fueled by frustration over domestic policies, organized crime and successive wars. For Palestinians in the West Bank, the possibility of change is being viewed more cautiously.Nidal Foqaha, a Palestinian political analyst based in Ramallah, told The Media Line that the Arab parties’ success reflected growing insecurity among their voters.Members of the United Arab List (Ra’am) party stand on stage following the release of exit poll results in the northern Israeli city of Sakhnin, on Israel’s general election night, October 27, 2026. (credit: MICHAEL GILADI/FLASH90)“This achievement is also attributed to the situation in which Arabs in Israel feel that they are threatened, given the last four years of the policies of the government of Israel, and specifically the policies of ministers like [Itamar] Ben Gvir,” he said.Foqaha pointed to crime, budget allocations and political rights among the concerns driving Arab voters, alongside developments affecting Palestinians in the West Bank.Reem Hazzan, a member of the political bureau of the Communist Party of Israel and Hadash, which is part of the Joint List, said the election exceeded expectations.“It was a great joy that this happened because it means that the people went out and voted and protected themselves, and showed that if they want power, they also know how to get it,” she told The Media Line.Hazzan linked the turnout to anger over the war in Gaza, conditions in the West Bank, organized crime within Arab communities and the policies of Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition. She said voters increasingly regarded those issues as interconnected and believed that removing Netanyahu and his allies could bring tangible improvements.But the Arab parties’ gains have also prompted accusations of election fraud and foreign interference from Netanyahu’s Likud party.Likud has alleged bribery, intimidation and other irregularities in Arab communities, citing suspected cash payments linked to Ra’am ballots. It has also accused Qatar of financing efforts to influence the election, an allegation Doha denies.CEC directs Shin Bet to investigate suspicions of foreign election interferenceIn a letter dated Wednesday and made public Thursday, Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Noam Sohlberg directed the Shin Bet security agency to investigate suspicions of foreign interference and election bribery, stressing that the allegations had not been verified. Separately, police arrested seven suspects in southern Israel in connection with alleged vote-buying.Neither investigation has established widespread electoral fraud. Acting Central Elections Committee Director General Dean Livne said there was no basis for claims of systematic violations of election integrity. The Shin Bet said its inquiry originated from intelligence collected independently of political parties and did not implicate Arab voters as a community. Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas denied his party’s involvement in wrongdoing and welcomed an investigation.Hazzan rejected Likud’s allegations as an attempt to undermine Arab political representation.“If there are any allegations of someone moving money from Qatar, they should look into Netanyahu,” she said, apparently referring to a separate investigation into allegations involving Netanyahu aides and work performed for Qatar.Hazzan also alleged that Netanyahu and the Shin Bet had been preparing to challenge the election results before voting began.“We actually see it as just a continuation of delegitimizing, of undermining the people’s will of how they voted,” she said.That allegation has not been independently established. Although Israeli media reported before the election that Likud was preparing complaints about voting irregularities in Arab communities, the Shin Bet said its investigation originated independently and that no political actor had access to its intelligence before the election concluded.Likud rejected Eisenkot’s accusation that Netanyahu was attempting to delegitimize the results. In a statement published Thursday on its Telegram channel, the party accused Eisenkot of conducting “an influence operation to whitewash and legitimize election bribery” on behalf of prospective Arab-party partners. It also alleged that a government supported by those parties would depend on votes bought with foreign money. Those claims remain unproven.Despite the dispute, the Joint List remains willing to support an alternative government, even without formally joining the coalition.“We have already expressed our position, and we said that we are very much willing to support, to vote in favor of an alternative government in order to get rid of Netanyahu,” Hazzan said.Arab participation in government is not without precedent. Ra’am joined the Bennett-Lapid coalition in 2021, becoming the first independent Arab party to do so. This time, however, opposition leaders remain divided over accepting Arab parliamentary support.Eisenkot’s Yashar party won 21 seats, Bennett’s B’Yachad party 12, the Democrats eight and Liberman’s Yisrael Beyteinu seven. Without Liberman, a theoretical 67-seat anti-Netanyahu majority would fall to 60.That would not necessarily prevent a new government from taking office. Under Israeli law, the initial confidence vote requires a majority of votes cast, not necessarily 61 affirmative votes. Bennett’s government, for example, was approved in 2021 by 60 votes to 59, with one abstention.Even so, a minority government would need sufficient cooperation to survive subsequent parliamentary votes.“They need to be courageous. We are not mistaken about who Liberman, Bennett and Eisenkot are. They are right-wing. They are not left-wing,” Hazzan said.She argued that opposition leaders must decide whether their commitment to removing Netanyahu outweighs their reluctance to accept support from the Joint List and Ra’am.Foqaha expressed similar doubts, suggesting that the main obstacle was not necessarily disagreement over Palestinian statehood but the unwillingness of opposition leaders to work with Arab lawmakers.Without such cooperation, a national unity government involving Likud and some of Netanyahu’s rivals could become an alternative. That might allow Netanyahu to remain in office, potentially under a rotation agreement, while giving opposition parties influence over security policy and ministerial appointments.But Eisenkot and other opposition leaders campaigned against Netanyahu, and joining his government could alienate their supporters. Any agreement would also have to address whether Netanyahu’s current partners, including National Security Minister Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, would remain in government.If negotiations fail, Israelis could face another election.Once the official results are published, President Isaac Herzog will consult representatives of the parliamentary factions and assign a Knesset member the task of forming a government. The first candidate will have 28 days, with a possible extension of up to 14 days.If that effort fails, additional candidates may receive opportunities to form a government. Should the process be exhausted without success, another election would follow. Netanyahu would remain prime minister at the head of the outgoing government until a successor took office.Another election could give Netanyahu an opportunity to recover lost support. It could also prove costly for an opposition that cannot be certain Eisenkot’s electoral appeal or the unusually high Arab turnout would be repeated.Foqaha cautioned against assuming that Netanyahu would emerge stronger from another vote.“What he couldn’t achieve a couple of days ago, he won’t be able to achieve in three or four months from now,” he said.Nevertheless, Foqaha said Palestinians in Ramallah remained realistic about Netanyahu’s political durability, particularly because Likud retained its position as the largest party in the Knesset.“People here in Ramallah are also very realistic. We know that, with the current situation, there is not really any signal telling us that Netanyahu will be out forever,” he said.“He is still the main player.”For Palestinians in the West Bank, Foqaha said, a change in government would not necessarily bring an immediate breakthrough on statehood. Nevertheless, the departure of some of Netanyahu’s more hard-line ministers could create opportunities for practical improvements.“We believe that any Israeli government which does not include ministers like Ben Gvir, Smotrich and [Minister for Settlement and National Missions Orit] Strock, and those very radical guys, can at least start with small, doable things,” he said.He identified financial conditions, security and protection from settler attacks as areas where a new government could make a difference.Hazzan also pointed to the treatment of Palestinian prisoners as a reason Arab voters wanted a change in government.“If we can get Ben Gvir out of the government, it means more bread for the prisoners. It means less torture in prison, and people really thought about it,” she said.The election has thus produced a political paradox: Arab parties have secured unprecedented parliamentary representation, and their support could determine whether Netanyahu remains in power, yet the opposition remains divided over accepting that support.For Arab voters, the test is whether their electoral strength can translate into meaningful political influence. For Palestinians watching from Ramallah, it is whether the next Israeli government brings any improvement to their daily lives.Follow us on Google