Inside Badenoch’s reshuffle plan to clear out the Tory ‘deadwood’ (sorry Mel)

As Andy Burnham jetted off to Ukraine for his first overseas visit as Prime Minister earlier this week, his opposite number was undertaking an international tour of her own across southern Europe. The Tory leader met first Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni on Monday, before travelling to Greece to hold talks with its Premier, Kyriakos Mitsotakis. The topic of conversation on both accounts was how to turn around ailing economies. However, it was Badenoch’s decision to meet Meloni that caught most attention, as she clearly sees more than a little of herself in the Italian leader. Shorts Badenoch said that when Meloni was first elected people “wrote her off”, insisting she would not last six months. “In 10 days she will be fronting the longest-serving government in the history of the Italian Republic,” the Tory leader said. “She has shown what a serious centre-right government can achieve. I wanted to understand how she did it.” The decision to try to learn from, and even emulate, Meloni, along with talk of overseeing an “economic revolution” (as Badenoch described it) should the Tories return to power, signals an increasing confidence from Badenoch as she edges towards two years at the head of her party. While she is credited with stabilising the Tories after the party’s disastrous 2024 election result, it is still struggling in the polls. The latest BMG poll for The i Paper on Friday put the Conservatives on just 18 per cent – still in third place behind Reform UK’s 23 and Labour’s 27. There is a belief, however, that her personal ratings are improving. The i Paper poll has her on a net rating of 0 per cent, which may sound low, but compared to Rishi Sunak’s nadir of -44 is not too bad, and not far behind Andy Burnham’s +6. So the rub is that while Badenoch herself is relatively popular, the Tories aren’t. And part of that problem, insiders argue, lies with the failure of the Shadow Cabinet. ‘Priti keeps acting like an alabatross’ The next immediate step towards getting her party fighting fit is therefore to oversee a reshuffle. While it is difficult at the best of times for opposition parties to seize control of the political limelight, there are concerns within the Tory machine that too few shadow ministers are pulling their weight, allowing Reform to steal the stage and present themselves as the unofficial opposition. “It’s a big opportunity for Kemi to get rid of the dead wood and bring in fresh faces,” a Tory source told The i Paper. “We are painfully aware most of the frontbench are getting no cut through. When Kemi speaks, she makes waves. Most of the front bench are struggling to do the same.” Among those that could be for the chop are shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel, shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Helen Whately, and even shadow Chancellor Mel Stride. Stride could be reprieved, at least temporarily, as the favourite to replace him, according to insiders, is Claire Coutinho, who holds the energy brief. She, however, is about to go on maternity leave meaning Stride could have several months to prove his worth. “Mel could be out, for failing to cut through on the single most important issue for the Tories. But he could stay until Claire returns and then she simply takes over. “A lot of the current front bench have had a long time to settle into their briefs and delivered nothing, and other frontbenchers, CCHQ [Conservative Campaign Headquarters] and Loto [Leader of the Opposition] are getting agitated. “Helen Whately has one of the best briefs and has sat on her arse and ceded ground to Reform. Everyone, both inside and out of CCHQ, knows she has failed.” The source then aimed the crosshairs at Patel: “Priti keeps acting like an albatross around the Tories’ neck while doing nothing on a critical issue, especially given how bad Burnham could potentially be on defence and foreign issues.” Several other names were highlighted. “[Shadow Environment Secretary] Victoria Atkins can be good, but again has failed to cut through recently. Same with [health spokesman] Stuart Andrew who has barely made a sound since taking on health. [Shadow Home Secretary Chris] Philp could be demoted, but is energetic and cares.” ‘Reform people won’t be so smug’ Names that are being linked with a promotion are the likes of shadow whips Katie Lam and Harriet Cross, but the party still lacks strength in depth. Badenoch made waves over the summer as she blocked some more well-known faces from the previous Conservative administration from being able to stand as Tory parliamentary candidates at the next election, including former party chair Grant Shapps. She refused to be drawn on the issue, but insisted that when candidates are revealed people will “see that this is a very different party from the one that was removed from government in 2024”. It reflects a growing confidence in her own abilities as Badenoch seeks to mould the Tory party closer to her own image. MPs are supportive of her approach – for now, at least – and are increasingly confident that she will first be able to reel in Nigel Farage’s Reform and then pose a challenge to Labour at the next election. Badenoch meets Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome (Photo: Christine Quarmyne/CCHQ) A Tory MP close to Badenoch said they believed the Conservatives would overhaul Reform, questioning whether Farage had the “stamina” to stay the course until a general election in 2029. Burnham’s arrival had already heaped pressure on Farage, they said. “If Labour looks a bit more solid, it wins back some stuff from the Greens and it’s consistently ahead in the polls, the Reform people won’t be so smug.” With Farage facing unrelenting media scrutiny over his and Reform’s finances, and contending with a standards investigation into the £5m he received from crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne, which could trigger a second by-election in Clacton (both deny wrongdoing), the Tory MP said it was conceivable that Farage could quit frontline politics before the next election. Without him, the Tories would decisively leapfrog Reform in the polls, they claimed. “Then slowly but surely it will becomem ‘Do you want Kemi Badenoch, [who’s] becoming the most popular [politician], or do you want Andy Burnham and high taxes?” The MP said they did not know when the polling crossover with Reform would happen. “I’m patient about ​that,” they said, adding: “I just think the country is slowly becoming weary of this constant angry anti-establishment narrative. It’s not yet fully bedded in the polls, but I think it will come out over time. “I think Andy Burnham will be a force of stability. I think he’s going to have to make some very unpopular decisions which will mitigate the growth in his lead and will stop him from being tempted to go for an early election.” ‘Kemi is starting to pull up the party’ Badenoch has continued to improve her own personal ratings, but is yet to convert that into support for the party, although the Tories are slowly closing the gap on Reform, albeit with polling figures that would still be hugely damaging should these be maintained at the next election. Indeed, by far Badenoch’s biggest challenge is not convincing voters she is the right person to lead the country, but convincing them they can trust the Tories again in future. A Tory source insisted that “Kemi’s strong polling is starting to pull up the party”, adding that the Conservatives were now “within the margin of error of Reform with most pollsters”. The senior insider “Reform themselves have spent the summer arguing with a bin and between themselves. They now look more divided than ever and Farage hasn’t been seen for a fortnight. “The Burnham bounce has given Labour new life, but is artificial and we will be ruthlessly challenging him on his tax plans, defence plans and plan to release thousands of serious offenders out of prison early.” ‘Unclear where Badenoch voters are’ Despite the fighting talk, Chris Hopkins, director at polling firm Savanta, pointed out that the “Conservative brand is still tarnished following the premierships of her predecessors”. He added that “it is incredibly challenging from opposition to show you can regain the trust of the public,” and warned that the splintering of the vote on the right presented the Tories with an “electoral challenge they haven’t experienced before”. Badenoch also seems unlikely to be able to secure votes from the centre due to the combination of Labour’s polling improvement under Burnham and her own pivot rightwards since taking the reins of the party. “It remains unclear where Kemi Badenoch’s voters are,” Hopkins warned. Until she can appeal to them, her hopes of returning the Tories to power will be challenging.