In his desperate search for a Middle East victory, Trump confuses tactics with strategy - opinion

ByERIC R. MANDELAUGUST 23, 2026 20:14Updated: AUGUST 23, 2026 20:29US President Donald Trump has sent his Board of Peace representatives – Jared Kushner, Tony Blair, and Nikolai Mladenov – to pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to begin withdrawing from the Gaza Strip before Hamas disarms, and to stop attacking Hamas terrorists.He is likely dangling his endorsement in the upcoming Israeli election as the carrot to motivate Netanyahu, even though the prime minister knows that no one other than Israel has the capability to enforce the agreement against Hamas violations or verify its disarmament.Israel will be strong-armed to allow Hamas supporters Qatar and Turkey to help verify the agreement, despite their history as Hamas’s financial and diplomatic supporters, and their providing sanctuary to members of a US-designated terrorist organization.What the US president fails to realize is that when negotiating with terrorists – whether Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, or Syria – victories are elusive.The inaugural Board of Peace meeting at the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington, DC, US, February 19, 2026. (credit: KEVIN LAMARQUE/REUTERS)Hardly a day goes by without Iran thumbing its nose at Trump, declaring that Tehran, not Washington, controls the international waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. When the president says America controls the strait, Americans look at the evidence: oil is not flowing freely, and gasoline is not below $3 a gallon.Nine months ago, Trump was still basking in the victory of the June 2025 war against Iran. Operation Midnight Hammer (known in Israel as Operation Rising Lion) and the 12-day war profoundly degraded Iran’s nuclear program at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz, including the unprecedented use of 30,000-pound bunker-buster ordnance against deeply buried nuclear facilities.As recently as December 2025, Netanyahu was at Mar-a-Lago discussing Iran with Trump and receiving his blessing for Israel to act unilaterally against Iran’s rapidly expanding ballistic missile production. That arsenal posed a near-existential threat to Israel because it could overwhelm Israeli missile defenses – a concern that resonates today amid reported shortages of American and allied interceptors across the Middle East.Then events changed the equation. Trump believed that hundreds of thousands of Iranians taking to the streets signaled that the regime was on its last legs. New Israeli intelligence indicated that Iran’s supreme leader, and much of its political and military leadership, would be gathered in one location.Fresh from the arrest of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro, Trump believed he might achieve what had eluded previous American presidents: creating the conditions for regime change by decapitating Iran’s leadership.Despite historical revisionists who want to blame Israel, this was Trump’s decision, according to the president’s own public account. The operation would never have occurred without his approval.Today, victory remains elusive, in part because Iran considers survival itself a victory. Western policymakers apparently found it unfathomable that the regime would slaughter upward of 50,000 protesters within 72 hours and continue killing its own people. Since the war began, Tehran has intensified repression and executions while further impoverishing Iranians.Anyone familiar with jihadist movements, Shi’ite or Sunni, should understand what radical Islamism is capable of. Yet successive administrations have too often been reluctant to confront Islamist ideology directly, fearing accusations of Islamophobia.The result has been to abandon many Muslims to authoritarian Islamists and jihadists across much of the Middle East and North Africa. Notably, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco (Abraham Accords nations) have chosen a different path.The Trump administration had no Plan B to capitalize on the profound tactical achievements American and Israeli forces produced during seven weeks of fighting in March and April. Unable to confront the United States conventionally, Iran exploited asymmetric warfare and America’s intolerance for casualties.Closing the Strait of Hormuz proved enormously effective, diverting Trump’s attention away from Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, terrorist proxies, and support for the Iranian people.We are now fighting a Hormuz-centric war, and victory remains distant, even if Washington reaches an agreement likely to favor Tehran.America has faced this challenge before. During the Iran-Iraq War and the “Tanker War” of the 1980s, the United States protected navigation through the Strait of Hormuz by escorting reflagged Kuwaiti tankers during Operation Earnest Will, and confronting Iranian forces during Operation Praying Mantis.We can still take away Iran’s greatest source of leverage. Trump must explain to Americans why reopening this international waterway is a vital US national security interest, and why achieving it requires patience. Washington could also establish a fund to backstop war-risk insurance, encouraging tankers to transit Hormuz under US Navy escort.Confusing tactical successes with strategic victoriesWith victory over Iran uncertain, Trump is searching elsewhere for a Middle East foreign-policy success.In Gaza, Trump deserves significant credit for securing the release of Israeli hostages while allowing Israel to retain control of more than 60% of the territory. But in the rush to declare victory, the administration risks forgetting that Hamas remains the kinetic arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, driven by an ideology that will not disappear.The current agreement offers Hamas fighters amnesty for surrendering their weapons while potentially condemning Gaza to permanent Hamas influence, openly or behind the scenes. Verifying the demilitarization of tunnels and decommissioning weapons could take a decade. Israel is the only actor capable of effectively accomplishing that mission, yet it is being sidelined.So Trump turns to Lebanon.The weak government of this failed state has made extraordinary statements about disarming Hezbollah. But rhetoric is not reality. Hezbollah, which has no intention of voluntarily surrendering its weapons, remains Lebanon’s most powerful military force and has infiltrated the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).The latest charade has the LAF taking control of pilot zones from the IDF. Yet according to the Alma Research and Education Center, Hezbollah’s supposedly “civilian” organizations – inseparable from its broader infrastructure – are already entering those areas, preparing the ground for Hezbollah’s return.The real test should have come first: Require the LAF to enter areas of southern Lebanon where Israel has not operated and that remain under Hezbollah control. Everyone knows why that test was avoided.That leaves Syria, potentially Trump’s best opportunity for a diplomatic achievement – if he can escape Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s influence. Erdogan wants Syria transformed into a Turkish vassal state as part of his neo-Ottoman ambitions. He is a Muslim Brotherhood Islamist whose repeated anti-Zionist rhetoric cannot simply be dismissed, particularly because Turkey possesses NATO’s second-largest military.Pyrrhic Middle East victories can generate short-term political headlines. They do not constitute strategy.Unless Americans confront the region as it is – including the uncomfortable reality that even supposed partners such as Saudi Arabia are increasingly aligning with Islamist powers such as Pakistan and Turkey – Washington will continue confusing tactical successes with strategic victories.And what happens in the Middle East does not stay there. China is watching closely to see whether America will defend freedom of navigation through an international waterway. America’s allies in Asia are watching too.If Washington accepts new Iranian control over Hormuz and calls it a victory, Beijing will draw its own conclusions about American resolve.The writer is the director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network, and the senior security editor of The Jerusalem Report. He briefs members of Congress, their staffers, and the State Department.Follow us on Google