In Dallas, Trump leans into a midterm where ‘I’m on the ballot’

With two months to go until Election Day, Democrats are eager to make the midterms a referendum on President Donald Trump amid a prolonged slump in his approval ratings. So, too, is President Trump himself, who convened Republicans for a two-day national gathering in Dallas that ended Thursday night as it began – with the spotlight on the president and his priorities.Some Republicans in tight congressional races who have been quietly distancing themselves from Mr. Trump opted to skip the convention. Mr. Trump’s primetime speeches were aired live on some news channels but were competing with the opening games of the National Football League that attract substantial audiences.Republicans who traveled to Dallas had to pay for the privilege as part of a fundraising drive by the Republican National Committee, which already has a financial edge over Democrats. Mr. Trump controls a substantial war chest of his own, of which little has been spent so far in this cycle. Why We Wrote This With midterm elections for control of Congress drawing closer, a challenge for Republicans is Donald Trump’s deep slump in public approval. This week in Dallas, the president has been trying to turn that liability around on live TV. To Americans who were watching, Mr. Trump pitched what he sees as the best way to stymie a Democratic takeover of Congress – namely, a rerun of his two presidential victories in 2016 and 2024.“Pretend that I’m on the ballot,” he said. “Because in a way, I am on the ballot.”In 2024, Mr. Trump turned out enough irregular right-leaning voters to defeat Kamala Harris, his Democratic opponent. And the president may be correct in calculating that raising his own visibility could drive turnout among Republican base voters.But his support among independents, particularly those without college degrees, has fallen sharply amid an unpopular war with Iran that has driven up gas prices. He’s also lost ground among Latinos, who could swing the vote in crucial congressional districts.These are the voters Republicans will need to win in order to hold onto their majorities, says Matt Wylie, a GOP strategist based in South Carolina.“What Trump and his team are trying to do is push up Republican turnout,” he says. “But in a lot of these districts and these tight races, you’re not going to win with just Republicans. We have to get those persuadables, we have to get those swing voters, and this convention gave them nothing.” SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Treasury Department | Jacob Turcotte/Staff Mr. Trump made one splashy pitch to voters who may be feeling unhappy with the state of the economy under his administration.The president promised on Wednesday night to send a $5,000 dividend check to every adult citizen should Republicans keep control of Congress – an unfunded $1 trillion-plus proposal that he reiterated on Thursday. Democrats were quick to point out that previous Trump pledges of a $5,000 “DOGE dividend” or a $2,000 tariff rebate were never fulfilled.On Thursday, Mr. Trump was preceded on stage by Vice President JD Vance, who made a direct plea to voters who were still “making up their minds.”Thursday was the one-year anniversary of the assassination of Charlie Kirk, the prominent right-wing activist who had personal ties to Mr. Vance and others in the Trump administration. Some credited him for steering a greater share of young voters to Mr. Trump in 2024.Mr. Vance spoke of his close friendship with Mr. Kirk, saying in the months before his death he had spoken to him nearly every day. And he noted that Mr. Kirk did not agree with the Trump administration on everything.“Charlie hated war. That was his view,” he said. While not specifically mentioning the Iran war, the vice president said he wanted to speak to “young men – many of whom felt inspired by Charlie Kirk but are unhappy with some of what has happened in the wake of his death.”Mr. Vance asked those voters to follow Mr. Kirk’s example and not “throw the baby out with the bathwater.”Republicans do still need to motivate their base voters: A recent U-Mass Amherst poll found a 12-point gap between Democrats and Republicans when asked if they were “very enthusiastic” to vote in the midterms. Such gaps are typical in midterms when the party in power is seen as struggling.In 2006, President George W Bush was in a similar spot: U.S. troops were bogged down in Iraq and his approval rating had fallen to 38%. (Mr. Trump is currently averaging 39%.) Mr. Bush’s political advisers recognized that his unpopularity could be a drag on some GOP candidates, and rationed his campaign appearances. “There was a self-awareness about where [Mr. Bush] could be an asset,” says Mr. Wylie.Republicans went on to suffer a net loss of 30 House seats in November 2006, as Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress. Now Mr. Trump is running a different playbook, in which he is the star attraction. His party will find out soon enough if the strategy works.