How the Democrats’ surge impacts the US-Israel relationship

Washington | Nov. 04, 2026, 3:21 p.m. ET | 4 min read For decades, American and Israeli leaders have extolled their close ties – often described as a “special relationship.”But analysts say the Democrats’ decisive sweep of both the House and Senate could accelerate a shift toward a more contentious alliance.President Donald Trump, even as a lame-duck leader, will retain control over foreign policy. He is likely to flex that power and his veto pen. So, even a solidly blue Congress might be somewhat limited in what it could do to transform U.S. relations with Israel. But lawmakers will still be able to ask questions about arms sales to Israel, slow down the escalation of the war with Iran, and expand efforts to sanction Jewish settlement building and vigilante violence against Palestinians in the West Bank.The election of several outspoken critics of Israeli policy, most prominently Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan to the U.S. Senate, reflects Israel’s badly damaged reputation in the wake of unpopular wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, and how its leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has become a liability.Progressive Democrats who are critical of Israel will “now have a megaphone … to impact public discourse in Washington,” says David Makovsky, director of the Project on Arab-Israel Relations at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Brian Snyder/ReutersAbdul El-Sayed, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, and his wife, Sarah Jukaku, react onstage after his victory in the midterm elections, during an election night rally, in Detroit, Nov. 4, 2026. “I am concerned by horseshoe politics, that both sides of the political aisle will converge on the Israel issue. For Democrats, [it will be] about the Gaza war, and the Republicans on Iran and how the war is being run. The critiques are different, but the bottom line is something Israel will not like,” he adds. A recent Pew Research Center survey found that 8 in 10 voters who lean toward the Democrats hold unfavorable views of Israel. That sentiment is changing how Israel is viewed within the party, not just by progressives but also moderates. Even pro-Israel Democrats have expressed a willingness to block the sale of offensive weapons to Israel.Emblematic of that approach is Jon Ossoff, who retained his Senate seat in Georgia by a wide margin Tuesday. He has been increasingly critical of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. Carlos Barria/ReutersU.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, a Georgia Democrat, waves to supporters during an election night rally after winning reelection in the midterm elections, in Atlanta, Nov. 3, 2026. In a telling sign of how low its image has sunk in the U.S., President Trump distanced himself from Israel as Americans were casting their ballots. He said the United States would stop funding $3.8 billion of military aid to Israel by the end of 2026 – despite a standing memorandum of understanding that it would run through the end of 2028.“This debate [on Israel] has shifted remarkably quickly,” says Matt Duss, executive vice president at the Center for International Policy in Washington. “In the midterms, uncharacteristically, foreign policy played a large role – U.S. relations in the [Middle East] region and Israel and [the] decision to launch this unpopular war in Iran, with its negative impact on American lives.”Mr. Duss expects a Democratic-controlled Congress to hold hearings on Gaza and the Iran war and to advance legislation such as the Block the Bombs Act, which would ban a wide range of offensive weapons sales to Israel.A new senator in MichiganMr. Duss calls Mr. El-Sayed’s win in Michigan a “game changer.”“Not just because of his views on Palestine and Israel, but because a left progressive populist can show he can win in a swing state," he says. "It will put wind in the sails of populists on a whole range of arguments.” But some argue that because Democrats won by such a wide margin, they will be less beholden to any one faction, including the party’s progressive wing.In his victory speech, Mr. El-Sayed said that voters wanted tax money spent on local needs. In an apparent rebuke of U.S. support for Israel, he added, “We don’t want our money sent to do apartheid, or genocide, or war.”Other outspoken critics of Israel who won seats for the Democrats in the Senate are Peggy Flanagan of Minnesota and Troy Jackson of Maine.Israel’s future governmentIsrael’s election last week resulted in deadlock between Mr. Netanyahu’s bloc and those parties trying to oust him. Veteran observers say the future of U.S. policy toward Israel rides heavily on who will lead the country next.“Netanyahu is associated with all the pain points in the U.S.-Israel relationship,” says Daniel Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel.“If he continues to be the face of Israel, it will be much harder,” he says. “If it’s a new player without that history … there’s space for better and healthier conversations.” Jonathan Rynhold, a political science professor at Israel’s Bar-Ilan University who specializes in U.S.-Israel relations, says Congress’ leverage will largely be limited to its “power of the purse.” But he says he’s especially wary of possible future anti-Israel resolutions in Washington, such as declaring Israel’s war in Gaza, launched in response to the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023 attack, a genocide. Deepen your worldviewwith Monitor Highlights.Politics with respectGet political stories with respectful analysis.There‘s a world of new ideas in everyBooks newsletter.There‘s more to life, enrich yours withCulture & Learning weekly.Follow humanity‘s discoveries withScience & Nature stories in your inbox.Gain a spiritual perspectivefrom the stories in your inbox.Want to understand the deeper impact of critical events? Learn the Monitor‘s insight.Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads. “This could cement Israel’s image as associated with such acts … that means anyone who supports Israel, regardless of whether or not they agree with Netanyahu or not, is considered a supporter of a genocidal state.”Professor Rynhold says U.S. attitudes toward Israel are beginning to harden, making restoring previous bipartisan support ever more elusive. ALREADY A SUBSCRIBER? 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