How I Set a Smarter Goal Pace for Half Marathon Race Day

Recently, I got about halfway through my 10-week half marathon build and realized I have no idea what pace to target on race day. I haven’t done any major races this year so far, and I haven’t run a half marathon in about a year and a half.Initially, I wanted to train without a goal and make my racing comeback after dealing with depression and burnout. But as I progressed through the first few weeks, I panicked about how to pace the race and realized how much I wanted to see what I was capable of achieving.Plus, I know how important it is to head to the starting line with a plan. Otherwise, I tend to start out too fast or pick it up too soon midrace, both of which almost always lead to a serious fade before the finish line (and some miserable miles).I went searching for guidance from Kai Ng, a USATF- and RRCA-certified coach in New York City, exactly one month out from my half marathon. “It’s important to know the fastest pace you could run on race day because if you run faster than that, you risk hitting the wall,” he says. On the other hand, run too slow to start and miss hitting your goal time.As runners, we all want our finish times to reflect our hard work—myself included. So I learned the best strategies for setting a smart goal pace a month out from race day. Here’s how to execute.How to Set a Smart Half Marathon Goal PaceIdeally, Ng prefers that runners do a time trial or race (ideally, a 10K) one week before they start their race training block. From there, you can use a calculator (like the Runner’s World pace calculator or V.O2 calculator) to set your training paces.It’s a good idea to do another race or time trial midway through your training block, because testing and retesting helps you understand your current fitness level.In the second half of training, you can use race pace workouts to get a closer look at what your race goal should be, Ng says. At this point, you should be able to hold goal half marathon pace comfortably for five to eight miles, he adds.If, like me, you haven’t run a race in months, a few specific strategies can help you fine-tune race pace throughout training. Here’s what to do.1. Look at Any Race HistoryThough I had not run any 5Ks or 10Ks this year, I had just run a one-mile race at the 5th Avenue Mile in New York City a week before my conversation with Ng, which did give some insight into my fitness.While a 10K race is a much better option to set paces before a half marathon, Ng says, the mile is a good indicator of my current fitness. Plus, he says we can take into account the finish time from my first marathon last fall, and the half marathons I did years ago, with a PR of 1:46.My goal for this half marathon was to come back to race training and rebuild my fitness. I figured if I could break 2:00—especially considering this race is on a hilly course—I would be happy. But when I told Ng my mile time (6:00 flat), he suggested I aim for the 1:34 to 1:44 range instead, according to pace equivalents on the V.O2 calculator.I treated my training as if I was starting from scratch, but our conversation made me begin to wonder if I was being a little too easy on myself, and I could afford to find a faster goal pace.2. Check Threshold PaceBased on my mile time, I should be able to hit a 7:11 pace for the half marathon, Ng says, and my threshold pace would be around a 7:03. I would’ve written that off as way too fast except for the fact that when I ran a recent track workout (mixed intervals that alternated between 800 meters and one mile), I was able to hold a 7:05 pace in each repetition and feel surprisingly strong.Find Your Threshold PaceThat workout felt like threshold pace is typically described by coaches: comfortably hard, I could get a few words out at a time, and I felt I could keep going for a few more miles. I knew I was right around my threshold, and that Ng’s pace suggestions were probably right; I just needed to spend more time at my threshold pace to close the gap between my aerobic and anaerobic fitness levels.Ng recommended I scratch my remaining speed workouts (5K pace intervals) and swap them for threshold workouts of two- to four-mile repeats. I completed four reps of one-mile threshold intervals at about a 7:05 to 7:10 pace range at my next workout and felt really strong.I tentatively set my half marathon pace to 7:11.3. Test Half Marathon Pace in a Long RunFor my final long run during peak week, I ran 10 miles with five at half marathon pace, specifically shooting for a 7:11 pace. Ng suggested if it got too hard, I could always drop down to around 7:30 pace and make my race pace decision from there.The day I did this run, I found I was able to maintain a 7:40 average pace for those five miles. I felt good—other than some hunger pangs and mild fatigue from underfueling—but I wanted to fine-tune my half goal even more.So I plugged my five-mile time into a pace calculator and looked at the half marathon equivalent. It suggested going for an 8:08 pace or 1:46 finish time—my official goal.If I hadn’t stopped to talk to a coach or test myself with half marathon pace, I would’ve wandered aimlessly to the starting line, shooting for a half marathon time that’s more than 10 minutes slower than what I’m truly capable of. (I also realized I need to work on my aerobic fitness a little more, compared to anaerobic!)On race day, I’ll show up feeling way more confident with a specific pace to guide me. Who knows? I might even surprise myself and run even faster.Kristine Kearns, a writer and avid runner, joined Runner’s World and Bicycling in July 2024. She previously coached high school girls cross country and currently competes in seasonal races, with more than six years of distance training and an affinity for weightlifting. You can find her wearing purple, baking cupcakes, and visiting her local farmers market.