How Did Eduardo Rodriguez Do That?

Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez posted an ERA over 5.00 in his first two seasons with the Diamondbacks. His four-year, $80MM contract looked like an albatross halfway through the deal. And then out of nowhere, Rodriguez emerged as one of the unlikeliest aces in the league. The 33-year-old Rodriguez put together one of his most effective campaigns as a big leaguer in 2026. He ranked 5th in the National League with a 2.89 ERA. The four guys ahead of him are the top NL Cy Young candidates (Jacob Misiorowski, Chris Sale, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jesus Luzardo). Similar to his Red Sox days, Rodriguez limited hard contact at an above average clip. He ranked in the 89th percentile in hard-hit rate and in the 83rd percentile in average exit velocity. These were skills he’d shown before, just not in recent seasons. The main difference these days is that the strikeouts have dried up. Rodriguez posted a career-low 18.1% strikeout rate. He had the fourth-lowest called+swinging-strike rate among qualified pitchers. The reliance on soft contact, combined with a subpar groundball rate and minimal punchouts, made Rodriguez’s performance look suspect. The ERA estimators certainly didn’t buy it. He finished with a 4.27 xERA, a 4.44 xFIP, and a 4.62 SIERA. Those marks are right in line with his numbers from 2025, including an identical xFIP. The driving force behind Rodriguez’s strong season seems to be elite location. He darted spots basically all season. Rodriguez recorded an underwhelming 92 Stuff+, which is where he’s been for the duration of his time in Arizona. But he had a 109 Location+, easily his best mark since tracking began for that stat in 2021. His pitch plot on Baseball Savant shows four-seamers consistently up and away to righties, curveballs down and away, and changeups on the inside corner. The fastball in particular was excellent. It sat 92.1 mph like always, but it had an extra inch of induced vertical break this year. Rodriguez’s heater held hitters to a .212 batting average and a .351 SLG. The pitch posted a 15 Run Value, making it one of the most effective fastballs in the league. Only Misiorowski, Cam Schlittler, and Parker Messick produced better results by Run Value with their four-seamers. Locating the fastball sets the stage for the changeup. Opponents hit .209 against the pitch this season. It was Rodriguez’s best swing-and-miss offering (28.5% whiff rate). He threw it a career-high 26.5% of the time. Both the fastball and changeup had a 110 Location+ or better. The resurgent season doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be repeatable in 2027. Location hot streaks can happen, though they don’t usually last the whole season. Jacob Lopez comes to mind as a soft-tossing lefty who can get hot with hitting spots. When the four-seamer, cutter, and slider are overlaying perfectly, he can dominate. When the approach is a little off, he struggles. The 2026 campaign certainly gives Arizona some hope for Rodriguez in the final year of his deal. One fewer rotation question will be a boost this offseason. Photo courtesy of Ron Chenoy, Imagn Images