Haredi parties plan to remain outside government coalition until draft law is resolved

SEPTEMBER 17, 2026 14:11The haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties are preparing for the possibility of a dramatic shift in their political strategy after the elections, initially refraining from recommending a candidate for prime minister and remaining outside the coalition that is formed, while the new government is forced to deal with the crisis surrounding the draft law, haredi sources involved in internal political discussions told Maariv on Thursday.Once the issue that has shaken the haredi political establishment is resolved, the haredi parties could then consider joining the sitting government.Haredi sources familiar with the internal discussions said the emerging direction is currently not to recommend either Benjamin Netanyahu or Gadi Eisenkot to the president, based on the assumption that the haredi parties would sit in the opposition during the initial period following the elections."The feeling right now is that we won't recommend anyone," a haredi source said. "The haredim are coming in with the intention of sitting in the opposition for the first year."This is not a formal decision adopted by Shas or United Torah Judaism, nor is it a plan agreed upon by the party leaders. Haredi sources stressed that, at this stage, it reflects a prevailing mood and a commonly expressed view in discussions within the haredi political establishment.HAREDI DEMONSTRATORS protest in Jerusalem on July 23, 2025. (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)"This still isn't something that people sat down and wrote in a document and had approved by the rabbis," one source said, "but it is a widely held view."Sources familiar with the haredi discussions said the position has also come up in conversations with senior officials in the haredi parties.Government will struggle to get past draft law deadlockAt the center of the issue is the deadlock surrounding the draft law. Haredi sources believe that under the current circumstances, it would be extremely difficult for a government dependent on the haredi parties to pass legislation that both meets their demands and survives political and legal obstacles.That has led to the possibility now being considered: The next government would be required to deal with the issue while the haredi parties are not part of it.Under the scenario being discussed, the haredi parties would sit in the opposition, oppose the draft law advanced by the government, and even attack it, but they would neither be signatories to the legislation nor bear responsibility for the compromise language."Some kind of draft law will pass, we won't be tied to it, and we'll be able to attack it from the opposition," a haredi source explained. "After the law passes, that obstacle will already be behind us."Even supporting a Netanyahu government from outside the coalition is not necessarily seen as a solution. Some within the haredi political establishment believe the latest term demonstrated the cost of being fully identified with Netanyahu at a time when the haredi community was at the center of the public battle over conscription."They realized that being on the grill isn't good," a haredi source said.In his view, outside support could leave the haredi parties in essentially the same position: They would continue paying the public price associated with being identified with the government, while the problem that led them to remain outside it would still be unresolved.Once a draft law is passed, another possibility that currently appears more distant could also open up for the haredi parties: joining a government headed by Eisenkot.Haredis will not rule out joining centrist coalitionHaredi sources estimate that the conscription issue is currently the main obstacle to such a move. If the law were already behind them, they would not rule out joining a centrist coalition that is not based on the Netanyahu bloc."After a year, the haredim could enter any government," a haredi source said. "Every government wants to expand and become more stable. The haredim know how to be good coalition partners. Once the draft law is no longer on the table, there is no reason they couldn't be brought in."That assessment is based on the political experience of the haredi parties and the assumption that a government that has already been formed and weathered the conscription crisis could seek to broaden its coalition and strengthen its stability.If the government formed after the elections does not want to bring them in after a year, sources in the haredi political establishment said that continuing to sit in the opposition would also be a scenario they could live with.A draft law passed by a government that is not dependent on the haredi parties would present them with a complicated equation.Haredi sources estimate that the content of such a law would be tougher for the haredi public and further removed from the parties' demands. At the same time, they believe that a law passed without coalition pressure from the haredi parties could enjoy broader public and political legitimacy.In their assessment, that could also affect the government's ability to defend the legislation before the High Court of Justice.The positions Eisenkot himself has presented add further context to the scenario.Gadi Eisenkot, leader of Yashar party and a former IDF chief of staff, speaks during an election campaign rally in Nordiya, Israel, Thursday, Aug. 31, 2026. (credit: GILI YAARI/FLASH90)In recent months, Eisenkot has made clear that he does not intend to compromise on the principle of service, and has said that if the choice is between forming a government and compromising on the draft law, he would prefer another election.The framework he has presented is based on mandatory military, national, or civilian service, an end to the blanket exemption, sanctions on those who do not serve, and the possibility of allowing up to 3% of each annual cohort to defer service for one year for Torah study.Haredi sources assume that a law passed under a government headed by Eisenkot would be far removed from their demands. From the opposition, they could oppose the law without bearing responsibility for passing the legislation, and after its enactment they could reassess their relationship with the government.Eisenkot's public position fits into that picture. He has made mandatory service one of his fundamental conditions for forming a government.This could create a situation in which, at least initially, both sides are interested in the same separation: Eisenkot makes mandatory service a basic condition, while some in the haredi political establishment believe they would be better off sitting in the opposition while the legislation is passed.After the law is enacted, the calculations of both sides could change.Haredi sources deny having secret deal with EisenkotAccording to the haredi sources, there is no secret deal with Eisenkot behind the scenario."There are no talks with Eisenkot," a haredi source said, meaning that, according to the source, there are currently no negotiations or political coordination regarding the future scenario.Eisenkot has publicly rejected the claim that he is "flirting" with the haredi parties and said he has not held talks with Shas MKs over the past year.The possibility of eventually sitting in a government headed by Eisenkot is therefore not being presented within the haredi political establishment as the result of any advance agreement with him.From the perspective of the haredi sources, it could become a practical option if the draft law has already become a fait accompli and the main obstacle from their perspective has been removed.The major question will be Shas.At the same time, the party is fighting to win back voters who have shifted toward Itamar Ben-Gvir and Otzma Yehudit, and it is therefore expected to continue presenting a clearly right-wing line during the election campaign.Nevertheless, haredi sources find it difficult to envision a scenario in which, on the day after the elections, Shas alone joins a government while United Torah Judaism remains outside it."When the moment of truth comes," a haredi source assessed, "Shas won't do something different from United Torah Judaism."Shas leader MK Aryeh Deri seen during a Shas party meeting, at the Knesset, the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem, on January 23, 2023. (credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)Haredi parties enter 2026 elections in weak positionAlso in the background is what sources in the sector describe as the relatively weak position in which the haredi parties are entering the elections."The haredim are coming into these elections very weak," one source said.Shas is concerned, among other things, about voters moving to Otzma Yehudit, while the haredi political establishment as a whole is bearing the cost of the ongoing conscription crisis.That backdrop is also contributing to the view that this time it may be better not to enter the government immediately and once again find themselves at the center of the confrontation over the law.Once the conscription issue is resolved, the traditional priorities of the haredi parties are expected to return to the center of coalition negotiations: funding for yeshivas and institutions, and arrangements addressing the needs of the haredi public.Sources in the political establishment estimate the main budgetary cost would be about NIS 1.2 billion to NIS 1.4 billion, and in any case no more than roughly NIS 1.5 billion.From their perspective, that sum would not constitute a significant obstacle in the context of a state budget worth hundreds of billions of shekels, and a government seeking to broaden its support base could find a way to provide it.If the move materializes, it could also affect the long-standing relationship between the haredi parties and the Netanyahu bloc.There is no discussion within the haredi political establishment of severing ties with Netanyahu, but sitting in the opposition during the initial period could restore political room for maneuver that has nearly disappeared in recent years.From the perspective of the haredi sources, the decision over coalition partnership can wait. First, they want to see how the conscription issue is resolved. Only afterward do they want to examine which government, if any, it would be right for them to join.Follow us on Google