Guyana’s Oil Riches Are Transforming Its Economy at Breakneck Speed

Guyana is starting to see significant profits from its rapidly expanding oil operations, with much more expected to come. Oil was first discovered in the offshore Stabroek Block in 2015, with development commencing soon after, and production starting in December 2019. This has transformed Guyana into South America’s third-largest oil producer, after Brazil and neighbouring Venezuela.Guyana’s oil production could surpass one million bpd by the end of the year, with crude output already exceeding 900,000 bpd, according to Guyana’s Minister of Natural Resources Vickram Bharrat. The plan now is to monetise Guyana’s gas resources and to expand the economic benefits, said Bharrat.The tiny South American country is expected to see around 20.8 percent GDP growth in 2026, driven by an anticipated 17.9 percent increase in oil production and projected oil revenues of $6.50 billion. Crude production supported GDP growth of 63.3 percent in 2022, 33.8 percent in 2023, 43.6 percent in 2024, and 10.3 percent in 2025. This development has helped accelerate Guyana’s progress towards becoming a high-income economy, according to the International Monetary Fund, with Guyana’s Natural Resource Fund growing to over $3.1 billion by the end of 2024.Following a strong 2026, the government aims to produce around 1.3 million bpd of crude by 2027 and 1.7 million bpd by 2030. Meanwhile, upcoming developments, such as the $12.7 billion Uaru project, Whiptail, Hammerhead, and Longtail, are together expected to significantly boost production. This could help raise Guyana’s oil revenues and contribute to the country's GDP reaching between $50 billion and $69 billion by 2030.The rapid expansion of the sector is also supporting broader economic growth through investment in construction, logistics, engineering, manufacturing, transport, and financial services. Between 2019 and 2025, investors spent an estimated $3.6 billion with local businesses. Economic growth reached an impressive 33 percent in the first half of 2026, according to government data, making Guyana the world’s fastest-growing economy.Guyana has helped increase Exxon’s oil production to the highest in over 40 years, contributing an estimated 15 percent of the company’s operating income. The Guyanese economist Richard Rambarran explained, “It’s often said that Exxon saved Guyana… [but] one could also say that Guyana saved Exxon.”While this sounds like an economic success story, many are now questioning how much of the oil profits Guyana will see and how the government will spend its newfound revenue. Thomas Singh, an economist at the University of Guyana, said that Guyana’s 14.5 percent take from the consortium’s Exxon operations is “a terribly bad deal” when compared to the higher cuts taken by governments in other countries, such as Norway and Brazil. However, Alistair Routledge, who leads Exxon’s Guyana operations, emphasised that an escalation mechanism is in place to allow Guyana’s proceeds to rise.In terms of external investment in Guyana’s social system, Exxon currently supports biodiversity research and efforts to boost food production, and has agreed with partners to invest $100 million to develop the local workforce and improve health care. Meanwhile. The government has announced a wide range of spending plans for the country’s oil revenues, including the construction of 40,000 homes over the next five years, as well as investments in infrastructure, healthcare, education and transportation.Guyana has a population of just one million, meaning that the per capita value of its oil reserves is estimated to be the second highest in the world, after Kuwait.The government has announced a wide range of spending plans for the country’s oil revenues, including the construction of 40,000 homes over the next five years, as well as investments in infrastructure, healthcare, education and transportation.Government officials say that living standards are rapidly improving thanks to the recent investment of oil profits, citing tax cuts, new infrastructure, such as bridges and highways, the scrapping of college tuition and one-off cash payments of roughly $500 to citizens.However, some suggest that life on the ground is not all it’s made out to be. “We’re sick of hearing about a boom that means nothing to most Guyanese,” said Romola Lucas, one Guyanese lawyer. Raw sewage continues to flow through Georgetown’s canals, while several families are forced to share unfit housing that is vulnerable to flooding or fires, and armed muggings continue to be a common occurrence.Guyana has the potential to invest its oil revenues wisely and accelerate improvements in living standards, but it remains to be seen whether it will succeed with this aim. One business leader involved in aviation and lodging ventures, Gerry Gouveia Jr., said, “Guyana’s leadership knows where other countries got it wrong… We’re showing that we have a chance to get this right.” The hope is that Guyana will be more successful than some other Latin American countries that have significantly lost out on the economic potential of their natural resources due to inadequate stakes in private projects, corruption, and other factors.By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.comMore Top Reads From Oilprice.comForeign Investors Pull $3.2 Billion From Indian Markets as Oil Rally ReturnsChina’s Thermal Coal Prices Surge to Three-Year HighAnalysts Cut China's Q4 Crude Import Forecasts by 400,000 Bpd