From Ukraine to the Middle East: How drones and AI are rewriting the rules of modern warfare

Ukraine’s recent tensions with the United States highlight the importance of technology in contemporary warfare. The American disruption of Starshield, the military version of Starlink, significantly increased Ukraine’s vulnerability to Russian attacks. But what media coverage of these events misses, with its focus on the U.S., is that technology has made it easier for smaller states and sub-states to resist and challenge dominant powers. From Ukraine to the Sahel and the Middle East, smaller states and sub-states are using technology to maximize their capabilities against larger nations. Read more: Is the US limiting Starlink in Ukraine? The consequences could be catastrophic Military affairs ‘revolution’ The post-Second World War environment has seen a widespread dissemination of new military technologies across the globe. Rockets, missiles, nuclear weapons and other technologies have led countries to adapt their armed forces in new and unexpected ways. The culmination of these changes is what’s been described as a revolution in military affairs. Soviet Union theorists writing in the 1970s argued that emerging technologies, particularly in precision weapons and how they were being employed, fundamentally altered warfare. From the U.S. perspective, the 1991 Gulf War was an example of this theory in practice. In particular, precision-guided munitions that helped defeat the Iraqi army highlighted this shift. The role these weapons played in beating an enemy, in fact, still inspires American military efforts to this day. A Ukrainian soldier tests a drone in November 2025 in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson) The problem with this military focus is that it reinforces a view that fighting a great power is pointless because they have superior weapons. What these analyses forget, however, is that warfare is essentially a human activity. Technology can enhance and facilitate conflict, and it can temporarily upset the balance of power between states. But it’s only a matter of time before other states either acquire the technology or develop counter-measures. In this regard, recent conflicts demonstrate that smaller states and sub-states are employing the very technologies that facilitated great power exceptionalism against them. Ukrainian drones Most analysts believed that Russia would rapidly defeat Ukraine in 2022. That didn’t happen largely due to the determined defence and morale of the Ukrainian people. Technological advances also helped Ukraine stand up to what analysts previously regarded as a great power. Specifically, technology is helping Ukraine overcome its material and numeric limitations. One reason analysts were pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances in a conflict with Russia was arithmetic. Russia has a significantly larger population, and the Russian government employed its superior numbers to overcome its substantial losses in the first phase of the invasion. Ukraine recognized this limitation early in the conflict and has increasingly relied on drones as part of its defensive effort. Read more: Ukraine drone strikes demonstrate its continuing intent to fight the long war against Russia Earlier this year, in fact, Ukrainian officials argued that their use of only drones to fight an enemy represented a first in the history of warfare. Ukraine, furthermore, has overcome its material disadvantage in artillery by substituting it, whenever possible, with drones. While there are limitations to this approach, it’s helped Ukraine maintain its sovereignty. Smoke billows into the sky following Ukrainian drone strikes on warehouses of Russia’s online retailer Wildberries, in St. Petersburg, Russia, in July 2026, with St. Isaac’s Cathedral seen in foreground. (UGC via AP) Houthi tactics It’s not just Ukraine taking advantage of drone technology. The Houthi, a paramilitary organization in Yemen, entered into a protracted war with Saudi Arabia and its allies in 2015. The Houthi’s ability to resist Saudi-led forces has been due, in part, to the effective use of drones. Technology has further enhanced the Houthi’s military capabilities — in recent weeks, they’ve at times effectively shut down Saudi airspace. Furthermore, Houthi drone, missile and rocket attacks have disrupted the oil trade that the Saudi kingdom is dependent upon and, by extension, the global economy as well. Supporters of Yemen’s Houthi rebels raise their machine guns during a rally in support of the group in Sanaa, Yemen, in September 2026. (AP Photo/Osamah Abdulrahman) Importantly, the Houthi also demonstrate that technology can be employed in unforeseen ways. In the past, their projectiles were particularly inaccurate. But they appear to have used Anthropic’s Claude to improve their weapons guidance systems, making them more effective and accurate. While U.S. President Donald Trump may wish for the American military to accelerate its use of AI, it appears the Americans are lagging behind potential foes in its implementation. Terrorist groups embrace AI Terrorist organizations have also pioneered the use of AI tools in a variety of ways. The most common is using generative AI for recruitment purposes, allowing these groups to create content at an alarming rate and boost the numbers of followers and combatants. Terrorist groups are also undermining generative AI’s safety features to have direct battlefield applications. They’re now using AI to help them plan and co-ordinate operations. There are also indications AI is being used to assist in the preparation of explosives. A new frontier Technological advances are part of human existence. It’s easy to assume technology can determine and control how humans interact. Warfare, however, shows us something different. While technology may set the boundaries of warfare, human choices ultimately determine how effective the technology is. Until policymakers realize this, not only will protracted conflicts like those in Ukraine and Iran become more common, but smaller states and sub-states will continue to maximize technology to their advantage.