First NFL head coach to be fired odds on Kalshi: Whose seat is hotter, Dan Quinn’s or Nick Sirianni’s?

After Sunday’s overtime debacle that resulted in a tie with the New York Giants, Washington’s Dan Quinn is the most likely NFL head coach to be fired next, according to the latest trading trends on Kalshi. Quinn has a 53% implied probability of being the first head coach fired in 2026. After a baffling series of mistakes that led to a 27-27 tie with the Giants, Quinn, his quarterback, and his offensive coordinator are all taking tremendous heat for awful clock management. Ultimately, though, most of the blame will always fall on the head coach. In this article, we’ll look at the latest implied probabilities and Kalshi prices regarding the job security of several NFL head coaches. NFL head coaches on Kalshi: Next one out?Dan Quinn, Washington CommandersPrice: $0.53 on KalshiWith less than a minute remaining in overtime on Sunday, the Commanders were well within field goal range. They called a running play and then wasted time on personnel changes. Quarterback Jayden Daniels finally snapped the ball with 13 seconds left. Instead of spiking the ball, Daniels scrambled and was brought down with eight seconds remaining. The clock ran out before he could spike the ball, and the game ended in a tie. Massive criticism has been heaped on Quinn, Daniels, and offensive coordinator David Blough. Quinn has been criticized for questionable clock management and in-game decisions several times before, and he has now lost 15 of 21 games over the past two seasons. Quinn was fired five games into his sixth season in Atlanta in 2020. He piloted the Commanders on an unlikely run to the NFC Championship game in 2024, but the goodwill built up that season seems to have mostly evaporated.Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia EaglesPrice: $0.27 on KalshiTwo seasons ago, the Eagles won the Super Bowl, but Sirianni has drawn much ire since and is now on shaky ground after a 2-3 start to the 2026 season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is also being showered with heavy criticism as the offense has sputtered. The loss of WR A.J. Brown, along with multiple key injuries, has sent the Philly offense to last in the NFC after five weeks. Philadelphia’s standards have been raised in recent seasons, and management is known to have a quick hook. The fan frustration continues to linger after last season’s first-round playoff exit. Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay BuccaneersPrice: $0.21 on KalshiBowles is highly respected for his defensive acumen, but in 10 years as a head coach, he has a 62-78 record and two winning seasons. Tampa Bay has lost 12 of its last 14 games under Bowles.Some NFL analysts rank Bowles as the most likely coach to lose his job next. Bowles has not helped himself by pointing fingers elsewhere, and the injury to QB Baker Mayfield certainly has not helped. Bowles has been handled with patience by the Jets and Buccaneers, but he could be one of those head coaches who fares better as a coordinator. Robert Saleh, Tennessee TitansPrice: $0.10 on KalshiThe Titans are unsurprisingly winless, and Saleh has a 20-36 career record as a head coach. He has never won more than seven games. But Tennessee is terrible on offense, and Saleh is a defensive-minded coach. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has not gotten much out of his playmakers, and the Tennessee front office may exhibit patience with Saleh. The coaching staff is in the early stages of a rebuild. Over time, though, Saleh must prove he is not another fine coordinator who cannot succeed as a head coach. Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles ChargersPrice: $0.10 on KalshiHarbaugh may be facing the axe soon, even though the environment around him is tuned for failure. The offensive line continues to be a major concern, and there have been injuries throughout that unit. Offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel is a big flop so far. Quarterback Justin Herbert is playing at his lowest level, and running back Omarion Hampton is struggling while having his reps reduced. Harbaugh has not won a playoff game with the Chargers and is off to a surprising 0-5 start in his third season. Ending the disaster in Los Angeles may start with coaching changes in the near future. More head coach firing candidatesHouston’s DeMeco Ryans (2% at $0.03) might get his chance to turn things around if the defense starts to play up to its reputation and QB C.J. Stroud benefits from the addition of wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Dallas’ Brian Schottenheimer (1% at $0.02) has lost 12 of 22 games as head coach and drew criticism when he was an offensive coordinator. The Jets’ Aaron Glenn and Indianapolis’ Shane Steichen could move up on the board soon. Head coach Kalshi contract priceDan Quinn, Washington$0.53 Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia$0.27Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay$0.21Robert Saleh, Tennessee$0.10Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers$0.10DeMeco Ryans, Houston$0.03Brian Schottenhimer, Dallas$0.02How Kalshi works for NFL head coach firingsKalshi’s implied probabilities and associated prices are crowdsourced from the user base. Kalshi is not a sportsbook and does not use fixed odds. Kalshi is a federally regulated trading platform where users trade against their peers. To trade on Kalshi, users buy ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ contracts based on sporting outcomes. Contracts cost $0.01 to $0.99, and winning contracts pay out $1 each. So if you take Quinn at $0.53 to be the next coach to lose his job, and he gets fired first, winning contracts on that outcome pay out $1 each with a $0.47 profit. New Kalshi users can unlock $55 in bonus credits after they complete $25 in opening cash trades. The Kalshi promo code NJCOM triggers the welcome offer. 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