FanGraphs Power Rankings: Offseason 2027 (No. 16–30)

Even though the offseason has technically begun, we’re currently in the lull between the end of the World Series and the real start of hot stove season. Teams are just about done with the annual housekeeping necessary to prepare their rosters for the winter, but the big moves are still on the horizon and the owner’s lockout is looming. That means it’s as good a time as any to take stock of how each team measures up. The rankings below present each team as they are currently constructed, based on our Depth Charts playing time projections. This should give us a pretty good idea of which teams would be ready to compete if the 2027 season started today, and which teams have a lot of work ahead of them this offseason. I’ll start with teams projected to finish below .500, and then will have the top half of the rankings later this week. Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these offseason rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. Our projections are entirely powered by the 2027 Steamer projections right now; the ZiPS projections will be added later on in the offseason. The delta column in the full rankings below shows the change in ranking from the final regular season run of the power rankings. FanGraphs Power Rankings (No. 16–30) Rank Team Projected Record Implied ELO Projected Batter WAR Projected Pitcher WAR Δ 16 Athletics 80-82 1498 25.9 12.5 12 17 Orioles 80-82 1497 25.4 12.8 -2 18 Rangers 80-82 1497 22.8 15.1 1 19 Nationals 80-82 1496 19.8 14.4 2 20 Marlins 79-83 1495 19.6 15.4 -2 21 Cardinals 79-83 1495 22.9 11.4 5 22 Astros 79-83 1495 26.9 11.6 -11 23 Giants 79-83 1495 20.0 13.1 4 24 Diamondbacks 79-83 1493 24.9 12.4 -11 25 White Sox 78-84 1490 24.4 13.1 -13 26 Padres 75-87 1483 22.0 11.4 -24 27 Royals 75-87 1480 25.1 9.7 -2 28 Angels 74-88 1478 18.8 11.6 1 29 Reds 73-89 1474 17.0 12.4 -9 30 Rockies 66-96 1455 13.2 7.9 0 … Tier 6 – The Muddy Middle Team Projected Record Implied ELO Projected Batter WAR Projected Pitcher WAR Athletics 80-82 1498 25.9 12.5 Orioles 80-82 1497 25.4 12.8 Rangers 80-82 1497 22.8 15.1 Giants 79-83 1495 20.0 13.1 Diamondbacks 79-83 1493 24.9 12.4 The Athletics actually led the thoroughly mediocre AL West through most of May, but a rash of injuries to nearly all of their offensive stars resulted in a bummer summer and their fourth season with 90-plus losses in the last five years. The good news is that Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, Jacob Wilson, and Brent Rooker should all be healthy to start next year. And with young Leo De Vries knocking on the door to the big leagues, the team’s offensive core looks potent. The pitching staff is another matter, though 2027 will be the final year the A’s spend in West Sacramento. The upcoming move to Las Vegas puts a little more pressure on the organization to take a big step forward next year to ensure an exciting product is on the field for the franchise’s inaugural season in its new home in 2028.You Aren't a FanGraphs MemberIt looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed. We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member. 1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other. 2. Unlimited articles! 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We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it. In case you didn't read all that, here's the short version. Membership includes:✓Ad-free browsing✓Unlimited FanGraphs & RotoGraphs articles✓Historical & platoon projections✓Leaderboard & player-page stat heatmaps✓One-click data exports✓Customizable player-page dashboards✓Dark & Classic site modes✓Weekly Members-only mailbag✓FanGraphs Walk-Off, your year in review✓Optional homepage photo removal✓Gift articles to non-Members✓Full postseason coverage For a team that looked like it had such a promising future just a few years ago, the Orioles suffered through their second consecutive hugely disappointing season. So many of their top prospects just haven’t panned out in the big leagues and trading Adley Rutschman felt like the end of an era that never actually got started. That leaves Baltimore in the awkward position of having a fairly young team, but far too many holes to fill to suddenly turn the roster into a contender overnight. The O’s will need to be extremely judicious in figuring out how to supplement a core led by Pete Alonso while determining if guys like Gunnar Henderson are actually pieces to continue building around. Three years have passed since the Rangers won the World Series, and it’s looking more and more like that championship was a flash in the pan instead of the beginning of a long contention window. Most of the team’s best players — Jacob deGrom, Corey Seager, Nathan Eovaldi, and Brandon Nimmo — are on the wrong side of 30, and there isn’t really a wave of young prospects to inject new talent into the roster. The Rangers managed to stay competitive in the AL West for most of the season despite hovering around .500 for the entire year. That probably won’t cut it next year, so they’ll either have to figure out a way to take a big step forward with their aging roster or tear it all down and start over. Barely anything went right for the Giants this year, and many of their woes — from the uninspired play on the field to the anti-Pride Night demonstration by a few players and the organization’s bungled response to it — were self-inflicted. How the team can best repair its relationship with its fans is unclear, and the path forward on the field is similarly murky. There’s a ton of money wrapped up in three players — Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, and Matt Chapman — and only Devers played up to the level demanded by those massive contracts this season. It’s not all doom and gloom in San Francisco; Bryce Eldridge finally looked settled in by the end of the season and Drew Gilbert was really fun to watch in center field. Still, this is a flawed roster with no easy paths to quick improvement. Like the Rangers, the Diamondbacks have struggled to build upon their World Series appearance in 2023. They remained competitive in the NL Wild Card race through most of summer, but they ultimately fell short of a postseason berth for the third consecutive season. There are some questions about Ketel Marte’s future with the organization after his unannounced departure from the team in August. According to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, “in the days surrounding Marte’s return from the restricted and injured lists in late August/early September, players seemed to intimate that they expected Marte to be moved over the winter. Multiple players made comments about getting through the year and ‘dealing with the situation’ after the season.” Beyond whatever happens with Marte, the pitching staff will need some reinforcements this offseason. Corbin Burnes should be healthy next year, but with Michael Soroka and Zac Gallen both free agents, the rotation looks pretty thin behind him. Tier 7 – Young and Fun Team Projected Record Implied ELO Projected Batter WAR Projected Pitcher WAR Nationals 80-82 1496 19.8 14.4 Marlins 79-83 1495 19.6 15.4 Cardinals 79-83 1495 22.9 11.4 White Sox 78-84 1490 24.4 13.1 The Nationals were one of the most fun teams to watch this year thanks to a high powered offense led by James Wood and CJ Abrams. The pitching side of the equation wasn’t anywhere near as enjoyable, but at least Cade Cavalli put together a healthy season and earned a well-deserved contract extension after his breakout. Trade deadline acquisition Connelly Early and a quiet breakout from Andrew Alvarez provide some intriguing pieces behind Cavalli in the starting rotation, too. If Washington can bring in the right pieces during the offseason to bolster its young core, this feels like a team that’s on the cusp of taking a huge step forward. Like the Nationals, the Marlins also look like a team on the up and up. Breakouts from Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards give the lineup a dynamic duo to build around, while Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez anchor the starting rotation. Unfortunately, Robby Snelling and Jakob Marsee both underwent Tommy John surgery this year — it’s a much longer road back for Snelling as a pitcher, but Marsee probably won’t be healthy until the season is underway. Top pitching prospect Thomas White will also be returning from a shoulder injury that wiped out most of his 2026 season; he probably would have made his big league debut sometime this summer if he hadn’t gotten hurt. The team will have to navigate through all those injury issues and any potential trades it makes (Alcantara, for example, is entering the final year of his contract), but nearly the entire roster is under club control for 2027. Veteran reliever Pete Fairbanks is Miami’s only free agent. The Cardinals’ final record fell short of .500 for the second consecutive season — the first time that’s happened since 1994–95 — but they really committed to a youth movement in 2026. They gave JJ Wetherholt, Joshua Báez, Leo Bernal, and Quinn Mathews opportunities to make an impact as rookies after trading away a bunch of their veterans last offseason. Weatherholt is a strong contender to win NL Rookie of the Year honors, and there’s more young talent coming up through the farm system. Coming off his long-awaited breakout year, Jordan Walker and the steady Alec Burleson give the lineup a pair of anchors. There’s work to be done on the pitching side of the roster, but St. Louis feels like it’s poised to take a big leap forward next year. After three consecutive 100-plus loss seasons, the White Sox shocked the baseball world by making the playoffs and coming within one win of reaching the ALCS. Ultimately, the pitching staff was the weak link down the stretch and in the postseason. Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith both made their major league debuts this year and should feature prominently in the rotation in the coming years, but the Sox desperately need some veteran starters to reinforce the youngsters. There are fewer issues on the offensive side of the roster thanks to Munetaka Murakami’s excellent transition to MLB and Miguel Vargas’s big breakout. This is a super young and promising team that has even more talent matriculating through the farm system. The future definitely looks bright on the Southside. Tier 8 – Contenders in Transition Team Projected Record Implied ELO Projected Batter WAR Projected Pitcher WAR Astros 79-83 1495 26.9 11.6 Padres 75-87 1483 22.0 11.4 The two teams in this tier made the playoffs in 2026, but each has an uphill battle to get back next year. Despite a surprise division crown, the Astros are facing some tough questions after finishing the year at .500. It’s the fourth consecutive season they’ve seen their win total drop after their last World Series victory back in 2022. Yordan Alvarez had a MVP-caliber season that propelled the team to the top of the historically bad AL West, but his supporting cast just wasn’t what it used to be. Jose Altuve is deep into the decline phase of his career, Carlos Correa can’t stay on the field, and the pitching staff is a bit of a mess behind Hunter Brown. Randy Flores is the new GM in Houston, and he has the unenviable job of trying to reset this roster while working with meddlesome owner Jim Crane. The Padres were one of the best teams in baseball down the stretch and nearly toppled the Brewers in the NLDS. Unfortunately, 16 of their players — who combined for 15.5 WAR in 2026 — are now free agents. The potential departures from the pitching staff are particularly striking: Michael King, Nick Pivetta, Casey Mize, Robbie Ray, Walker Buehler, Adrian Morejon, and Jason Adam, just to name a few. For those keeping track at home, that works out to five starting pitchers and two high-leverage relievers. Thankfully, some key hitters won’t be going anywhere — Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts still form the core of that group — but the team will need to figure out how to replace the production from Ty France. Tier 9 – Perpetually Rebuilding Team Projected Record Implied ELO Projected Batter WAR Projected Pitcher WAR Royals 75-87 1480 25.1 9.7 Angels 74-88 1478 18.8 11.6 Reds 73-89 1474 17.0 12.4 Rockies 66-96 1455 13.2 7.9 The Royals failed to maintain the momentum of the last two years, since their surprise postseason appearance in 2024. Instead, they lost more than 90 games for the third time in the last five years. The loss of Cole Ragans to another elbow repair is a significant blow to a pitching staff that is filled with veteran starters on the decline. Bobby Witt Jr. is an unquestioned superstar, but he can only carry the lineup so far. With so many issues up and down the roster, this team looks closer to another teardown than it does to another playoff run. The Angels are in the beginning stages of a huge transition. The sale of the franchise to Stan Kroenke has been agreed upon, but not yet made official. That delay has put the hiring of a new general manager on hold. Whoever the team brings in to lead baseball operations will have a tall task ahead of them. Mike Trout played in more than 130 games for the second consecutive season, the first time he’s done that since 2018–19. Still, he’s not the dominant force that he used to be and his supporting cast leaves a lot to be desired. The Halos took their first steps toward tearing down the roster by trading away a bunch of pieces at the trade deadline, but this offseason will mark the true beginning of the rebuild. The Reds are in a weird position. Elly De La Cruz and Chase Burns are legitimate superstars with enormous ceilings. Hunter Greene would have been mentioned in that previous sentence, but he’s out for all of 2027 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. Sal Stewart made a great case for NL Rookie of the Year this season and should provide a nice sidekick to De La Cruz in the lineup. Beyond that, though, the roster is made up of a ton of broken pieces, prospects who didn’t pan out, and spare parts. Cincinnati is nowhere close to building a contender, yet the team has two (or three depending on your opinion of Stewart) stars to anchor the roster. With Greene left to rehab next year, will the organization be OK with staying in a holding pattern until he’s ready to pitch again in 2028? Or will the Reds pull the plug and trade away their most valuable pieces to restart their rebuilding cycle? With Paul DePodesta now leading baseball operations, the Rockies took a small step forward this year. There were moments when the team looked almost competent on the field. Hunter Goodman continued to mash, TJ Rumfield was a savvy pickup last offseason, and prospects like Cole Carrigg and Zac Veen made promising debuts. The eternal question of how to build a pitching staff at altitude still hasn’t been answered, but at least there’s some progress being made on the position player front.