FanGraphs Power Rankings: August 31–September 6

Labor Day has come and gone, and with just three weeks left in the regular season, the playoff pictures have become a little more clear. There are still a couple of division races up for grabs and a handful of teams in both leagues vying for the final Wild Card spots. Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab. First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. All power rankings stats, including team records, are updated through Sunday’s games. The rest of the information below is current as of Tuesday morning. FanGraphs Power Rankings Rank Team W-L Hot/Cold Elo Opp Elo Playoff% Power Score Δ 1 BOS 79-65 — 1575 1501 99.7% 1614 5 2 ATL 85-58 — 1562 1496 100.0% 1603 0 3 PHI 80-63 — 1564 1500 99.1% 1603 1 4 MIL 88-56 ❄️ 1561 1495 100.0% 1603 -3 5 LAD 86-57 ⛵ 1553 1494 100.0% 1597 2 6 NYY 81-62 — 1549 1499 100.0% 1593 -1 7 TBR 85-58 — 1549 1487 100.0% 1593 -4 8 CHC 81-63 — 1539 1499 99.5% 1586 0 9 CHW 75-68 — 1519 1501 88.2% 1562 0 10 HOU 73-71 — 1516 1489 79.4% 1546 0 11 ARI 76-68 — 1534 1505 54.1% 1530 0 12 TOR 72-72 🔥 1545 1506 38.4% 1518 1 13 SDP 75-68 ❄️ 1527 1507 43.3% 1511 -1 14 CLE 73-71 — 1499 1501 56.3% 1500 1 15 TEX 71-73 — 1479 1495 24.9% 1462 1 16 NYM 65-78 — 1514 1508 0.0% 1456 3 17 PIT 71-73 ⛵ 1501 1508 1.1% 1446 3 18 CIN 69-74 🔥 🛣️ 1499 1504 0.0% 1444 4 19 MIA 72-72 — 1489 1500 1.3% 1441 -2 20 STL 72-72 — 1486 1503 1.7% 1437 3 21 KCR 64-80 — 1490 1495 0.0% 1437 -3 22 BAL 69-75 ❄️ ⛵ 1483 1502 2.8% 1437 -8 23 MIN 68-75 — 1467 1493 3.5% 1424 1 24 SEA 67-77 ❄️ 1466 1501 6.6% 1421 -3 25 DET 65-78 — 1449 1494 0.1% 1405 0 26 WSN 67-78 — 1438 1502 0.0% 1396 0 27 SFG 59-85 — 1436 1504 0.0% 1394 0 28 COL 55-88 — 1408 1506 0.0% 1373 1 29 ATH 57-87 — 1404 1502 0.0% 1370 1 30 LAA 54-89 🛣️ 1399 1500 0.0% 1366 -2 🔥 Elo up >20 pts (last 10) | ❄️ Elo down >20 pts (last 10)🛣️ Avg opp Elo >1525 (last 10) | ⛵ Avg opp Elo <1475 (last 10) … You Aren't a FanGraphs Member It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed. We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member. 1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other. 2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off. 3. Dark mode and Classic mode! 4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them. 5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects. 6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.) 7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only. 8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO. 9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members. 10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features! We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it. Tier 1 – The Best of the Best Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Red Sox 79-65 1575 1501 99.7% 1614 Braves 85-58 1562 1496 100.0% 1603 Phillies 80-63 1564 1500 99.1% 1603 Brewers 88-56 1561 1495 100.0% 1603 The Red Sox crushed any hope the Orioles had of making a run in the AL Wild Card race after sweeping Baltimore in a four-game set over the weekend. Boston held the O’s scoreless on Friday and Saturday and allowed just a single run on Sunday in an impressive display of pitching against a division rival. Unfortunately, Ceddanne Rafaela had to be placed on the IL on Sunday with a minor quad strain after missing the first three games against the Orioles. In more encouraging injury news, Garrett Crochet threw a bullpen session last week, the first time he’s thrown off a mound since he went down with a shoulder injury in late April. The Braves and Phillies split a huge four-game wraparound series over the weekend. Sunday’s game was punctuated by a game-tying, three-run home run in the eighth inning from Ronald Acuña Jr. It was his third homer of the week to go along with 11 hits and nine RBI. There’s plenty of supporting talent up and down Atlanta’s roster, but a well-timed hot streak from Acuña alongside the continued brilliance of Chris Sale could carry the team deep into the postseason. As for the Phillies, this weekend’s series was a huge opportunity to try and challenge Atlanta for the NL East title. Sunday’s defeat was offset by Jesús Luzardo’s brilliant complete game on Monday to even the series. Still, a split doesn’t get Philadelphia any closer to the division lead; the team’s division odds sit at 8.9% with three weeks left to play. The Brewers’ week started off poorly, when they were blown out 17-3 by the Cubs last Monday. They wound up splitting that big four-game series and then started a second series against Chicago with a win yesterday. Those three wins kept the Cubs from gaining any ground in the NL Central, and the two rivals will complete their season series with two more games this week. In between those series against the Cubs, Milwaukee dropped its weekend three-game set against the Reds. It’s probably just a blip, but it was a little concerning to see both Jacob Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison get blown up last week. Misiorowski allowed five runs in four innings against the Cubs on Wednesday — the Brewers won the game anyway — and Harrison allowed 15 total runs across his two starts last week. Those two have carried the pitching staff for nearly the entire season and are absolutely critical to Milwaukee’s chances of playing deep into the postseason. Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Dodgers 86-57 1553 1494 100.0% 1597 Yankees 81-62 1549 1499 100.0% 1593 Rays 85-58 1549 1487 100.0% 1593 Cubs 81-63 1539 1499 99.5% 1586 After scuffling a bit as the calendar flipped to September, the Dodgers got a bit of their mojo back over the weekend. It began with a walk-off victory on Thursday to salvage a win in their series against the Cardinals and continued with a sweep of the Nationals, with two of those wins coming in the seventh inning or later. Shohei Ohtani was sidelined with minor maladies during that four-game winning streak, but he returned to the lineup yesterday. However, the team all but confirmed that we won’t see him back on the mound this season. Without Ohtani in the lineup, Mookie Betts stepped up to lead the offense; he tallied nine hits and two home runs last week, including the game-winning blast on Sunday night. The Rays placed Shane McClanahan on the IL on Friday with forearm tightness. It’s a huge blow to their rotation, though McClanahan is hopeful he’ll be able to pitch again this season. Still, with his injury history, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team handle him very carefully over these next few weeks. Thankfully, Freddy Peralta seems to have turned a corner; he’s allowed just a single run on five hits across his last two outings. He earned a bit of revenge against the club that traded him away last month, pitching six strong innings against the Mets on Wednesday. Aaron Judge is back! He faced live pitching for the first time during his rehab process yesterday, and the Yankees were satisfied enough with his progress that they activated him off the IL soon after. They will need to handle him with some care — he’s coming back without a minor league rehab assignment and is ramping up very quickly after spending three months on the shelf — but his return comes at an opportune moment in the season. Trent Grisham just hit the IL with a hamstring strain, and New York is four games behind the Rays in the AL East and two games ahead of the Red Sox in the Wild Card standings. Getting Judge up to speed over the next few weeks would be ideal ahead of what looks like a decisive four-game series against Tampa Bay during the final week of the season. Pete Crow-Armstrong hit his 40th home run of the season on Sunday — becoming the first Cubs player to reach that milestone since Derrek Lee in 2005 — and blasted no. 41 on Monday. He also has a shot at becoming the seventh member of the 40/40 club; he needs just five steals over the final three weeks of the season after swiping two bags yesterday. Alex Bregman continued his hot second half last week as well, smacking a trio of home runs against the Brewers last Monday and adding a fourth on Wednesday. He’s now up to 15 homers since the All-Star break, more than doubling his total (9) from the first half of the season. Tier 3 – The AL Melee Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score White Sox 75-68 1519 1501 88.2% 1562 Astros 73-71 1516 1489 79.4% 1546 Blue Jays 72-72 1545 1506 38.4% 1518 Guardians 73-71 1499 1501 56.3% 1500 The White Sox couldn’t keep pace with the Astros in a four-game series in Houston last week, losing three times against a potential playoff foe. Chicago did bounce back with a series win against the Twins over the weekend, capped off by a 10-1 drubbing on Sunday night. The losses earlier in the week dropped the South Siders’ lead in the AL Central to just three games over Cleveland. As for the Guardians, they won their weekend series against the Tigers, including two walk-off wins in a doubleheader on Friday, but then lost the first game of their series against the Orioles yesterday. Next week’s three-game series between the White Sox and Guardians looms very large in this division race. Despite winning that series against the White Sox, the Astros still haven’t been able to pull away in the AL West. They dropped their weekend series against the Diamondbacks and are just two games ahead of the Rangers and six games ahead of the Mariners in the division. Hunter Brown is finally pitching a lot more like the ace Houston needs him to be; he’s allowed four runs total across his last three starts with 21 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays clambered all the way up over .500 with a four-game winning streak last week, taking a critical series against the Guardians in the process. Unfortunately, the Jays were walked off by the Athletics last night and dropped a game under .500 and a game behind Cleveland in the AL Wild Card standings. It’s not a huge hot streak, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. notched seven hits and a home run last week, an encouraging sign of progress from the beleaguered slugger. With Jameson Taillon hitting the IL last week, joining Shane Bieber and Trey Yesavage, the Blue Jays have had to cobble together a pitching staff behind Dylan Cease and José Soriano. They’re making it work for now, but their depth will be tested down the stretch. Tier 4 – The NL Melee Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Diamondbacks 76-68 1534 1505 54.1% 1530 Padres 75-68 1527 1507 43.3% 1511 After both teams went 3-3 last week and won their respective games yesterday, the Diamondbacks and Padres are still separated by half a game in the NL Wild Card standings. The way these two teams are playing, it really seems like that final Wild Card spot will come down to their matchup in the final series of the season. And both teams are also getting reinforcements off the IL at a critical time. Arizona is set to activate Corbin Burnes and Michael Soroka this week, while Nick Pivetta returned from his elbow injury and started for San Diego yesterday. Unfortunately, Joe Musgrove’s rehab has been put on pause while he works through some fatigue issues, though the team is confident he’ll be able to pitch for the big league club in some capacity sometime before the end of the season. Tier 5 – Long Shots Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Rangers 71-73 1479 1495 24.9% 1462 Orioles 69-75 1483 1502 2.8% 1437 Twins 68-75 1467 1493 3.5% 1424 Mariners 67-77 1466 1501 6.6% 1421 The Rangers are managing to hang around in both the AL West and the AL Wild Card races, though they haven’t made much progress in either since the beginning of August. Merely treading water isn’t going to cut it; they’re going to have to start winning in bunches to advance to the postseason. They face four contenders over the next two weeks, beginning with a big series against the Mariners that starts tonight. As for the rest of the teams in this tier, none of them had much success last week. The Orioles had their slim playoff hopes dashed, with two losses in Colorado before getting swept in four games by the Red Sox. Baltimore had claimed Luis Robert Jr. off waivers in the hopes that he could help give the offense a boost, but he only managed to play in three games before hitting the IL with a hamstring injury. The Twins went 3-3 against the Tigers and White Sox last week and dropped the first game of another series against Detroit yesterday. Joe Ryan was activated off the IL for Monday’s game, but his return might be too little, too late. The thing about the Mariners’ soft schedule in September is that they had to actually take advantage of it to get back into the playoff picture. They couldn’t figure things out against the Athletics over the weekend, dropping three of four to one of the worst teams in baseball. They’re still technically alive in the AL West race because they have one more upcoming series against the Rangers and two more games remaining against the Astros, but they need to win something like 80% of their remaining games to have a shot at toppling Houston. Tier 6 – No Man’s Land Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Mets 65-78 1514 1508 0.0% 1456 Pirates 71-73 1501 1508 1.1% 1446 Reds 69-74 1499 1504 0.0% 1444 Marlins 72-72 1489 1500 1.3% 1441 Cardinals 72-72 1486 1503 1.7% 1437 Royals 64-80 1490 1495 0.0% 1437 With series wins over the Rays and Giants last week and a win against the Marlins on Monday, the Mets are now five games over .500 since the beginning of August. Bo Bichette has a lot to do with his team’s encouraging stretch, as he’s produced a 143 wRC+ since August 1 and recorded seven hits and two home runs last week. New York also recently activated Juan Soto off the IL, which means the lineup is as close to full strength as it’s been in a long while. Based on their remaining opponents’ playoff and division odds, the Royals have the most opportunities to play spoiler of any non-contending team. They came up short in their shot to do so against the Blue Jays last weekend and dropped the first game of their series against the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still to come on the schedule: the Red Sox, Astros, White Sox, and Guardians. Stay tuned. Tier 7 – Hope Deferred Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Tigers 65-78 1449 1494 0.1% 1405 Nationals 67-78 1438 1502 0.0% 1396 Giants 59-85 1436 1504 0.0% 1394 Rockies 55-88 1408 1506 0.0% 1373 Athletics 57-87 1404 1502 0.0% 1370 Angels 54-89 1399 1500 0.0% 1366 It’s really hard to parse what the future of the Athletics looks like when five core members of their lineup have been sidelined with season-ending injuries. Still, despite missing Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, Jacob Wilson, and Tyler Soderstrom, there are some bright spots to be found in Sacramento. After a rough first half of the season, Lawrence Butler has put up a 132 wRC+ since the All-Star break and just had a 14-game hitting streak snapped on Sunday. The pitching staff is still a mess, however, and it will continue to hold the team back from truly taking a step forward. At least Jacob Lopez has continued to pitch well down the stretch. He’s compiled a 3.13 ERA and a 3.82 FIP across 11 starts and a bulk relief appearance since being recalled from Triple-A on July 7. Right now, the Angels are an exercise in contradictions. They’re 11 losses away from losing 100 games for the first time in franchise history. The team was also just sold for a record $4 billion to Stan Kroenke. This is the worst the team has ever played, yet it might also be the most optimistic the fan base has been in over a decade. It will obviously take a while for the imprint of former owner Arte Moreno to be excised from the organization, but the future finally seems a little brighter in Anaheim.