Experts release updated Jaguars vs. Bengals Week 4 prediction and player props

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) throws a pass during an NFL football game.AP Photo/Matt DuriskoBy Sina Torki | Special CorrespondentThe Jacksonville Jaguars travel to face the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, October 4, 2026, with kickoff set for 1:00 PM EDT at Paycor Stadium, broadcast on CBS. Dimers’ latest simulations project a 27-25 Bengals win, with the spread still sitting right at even — Jaguars +2.5 and Bengals -2.5 are each priced at a 50.0% cover probability.Odds stay tight across the boardThe current betting odds have Jacksonville at +2.5 (+105) against Cincinnati at -2.5 (+106) on the spread, with the moneyline at Jaguars +135 and Bengals -108. The total sits at 50.5 points (-110/-104), pointing to a game both models expect to feature plenty of scoring even with the spread this close.Two quarterbacks projected almost dead evenTrevor Lawrence is projected for 267 passing yards, essentially matching Joe Burrow’s projected 268 — about as even a quarterback projection as it gets heading into a Week 4 matchup.Where the touchdown probability separatesThe backfields tell a different story than the passing projections. Bhayshul Tuten leads Jacksonville’s ground game at a 46.4% anytime-touchdown probability and 56 projected rushing yards, but Cincinnati’s Chase Brown tops the entire board at 59.9% and 73 yards — the single highest touchdown probability for either team in this matchup. Through the air, Parker Washington paces Jacksonville at 77 yards and a 35.6% touchdown probability, while Ja’Marr Chase leads all Bengals pass-catchers at 81 yards and 51.3%, with Tee Higgins right behind at 64 yards and 41.5%.Game detailsTeams: Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati BengalsDate: Sunday, October 4, 2026Time: 1:00 PM EDTVenue: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OhioBroadcast: CBSCompetition: NFL Week 4Current oddsMarketJaguarsBengalsMoneyline+135-108Spread+2.5 (+105)-2.5 (+106)TotalOver 50.5 (-110)Under 50.5 (-104)Predicted score: Jaguars 25, Bengals 27Anytime touchdown probabilitiesJaguarsProbabilityBengalsProbabilityBhayshul Tuten46.4%Chase Brown59.9%Parker Washington35.6%Ja’Marr Chase51.3%Chris Rodriguez24.7%Tee Higgins41.5%Trevor Lawrence24.6%Samaje Perine24.2%Brenton Strange24.1%Mike Gesicki24.1%Prediction Markets:Prediction markets are an increasingly popular option for Bengals and Steelers fans as an alternative to traditional sportsbooks. Here are our top prediction markets for NFL Week 4, plus available promo codes:PlatformVerified codesNew-user offerPolymarketCUSE, SILIVE, OREGON, MASS, CLEVE$50 bonus on a $10 deposit ($60 total to trade)Kalshi (upgraded, limited time)CLEVELAND55, SILIVE55, OREGONLIVE55Deposit $25, get $55 ($80 total to trade)Kalshi (standard)SYRACUSE, MASSLIVE1Deposit $25, get $25 ($50 total to trade)Bottom line for Jaguars vs. BengalsEven with the spread priced as an even split, Cincinnati’s offense carries the stronger scoring profile across the board — Chase Brown and Ja’Marr Chase both rank as the most likely players on either roster to find the end zone. Jacksonville’s path likely runs through leaning on Tuten early and forcing Lawrence to match Burrow’s efficiency through the air.These projections and odds reflect data available at the time of publication and are subject to change as the week progresses.Win probabilities and odds reflect model projections and market data at the time of writing and are subject to change. All times listed are EDT.MLB Polymarket promo code “CLEVE” launches $50 White Sox-Astros dealMLB Kalshi promo code “CLEVELAND55” extends $55 White Sox-Astros bonusKalshi code CLEVELAND55: New $55 referral promo for MLB Wild Card Game 1sNFL Kalshi promo code “CLEVELAND55” upgrades $55 deal for Eagles vs. BearsKalshi Code CLEVELAND55: New $55 referral promo for Monday Night Football tonightLearn more about our gaming editorial staff.If you or a loved one has questions and needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call the Ohio Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-589-9966 or the National Council on Program Gambling Helpline (NCPG) at 1-800-522-4700 or visit 1800gambler.net for more information. 21+ and present in Ohio. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gambler. LiveChat with a GameSense Advisor at GameSenseMA.com or call 1-800-GAM-1234 If you purchase a product or register for an account through a link on our site, we may receive compensation. By using this site, you consent to our User Agreement and agree that your clicks, interactions, and personal information may be collected, recorded, and/or stored by us and social media and other third-party partners in accordance with our Privacy Policy.