Expert Urges United Airlines To Launch This New 15-Hour Nonstop Route: Here's Why

Published Sep 21, 2026, 2:00 PM EDT James lives and breathes route development. Educated in Air Transport Management at Loughborough University and Cranfield University, James has a PhD in Airline Strategy and Economics. James was Market Opportunity Analyst at London Luton Airport and Chief Analyst at anna.aero. He taught airline strategy and economics to undergraduate and postgraduate students for five years and has worked closely with multiple carriers on route and market intelligence projects. He is based near London, UK. United Airlines is the second-largest US operator to Africa this year, behind Delta Air Lines. According to Cirium Diio data, United is second in terms of passengers, seats for sale, flights, available seat miles, and the number of routes. The Star Alliance member now has six routes from its hubs at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) and Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD) to Africa. It did have seven, but IAD-Dakar service ended in March 2026 after only operating for a brief time. Could another route materialize? Expert Says United Should Begin This Route To Africa Behramjee Ghadially is a senior airline network planner, African aviation specialist, and industry commentator. Speaking exclusively to Simple Flying, he stated United should seriously consider flying to Kenya. In 2025, 498,000 passengers flew between the US/Canada and the country. Specifically, United should add service from IAD to Nairobi's Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (NBO). For now, at least, NBO only has one nonstop route to North America. Kenya Airways has flown to John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) since 2018, which is partly to feed fellow SkyTeam member Delta at JFK. This is primarily why Kenya Airways chose not to fly to IAD instead. In 2025, booking data shows that just over 50,000 round-trip local passengers flew indirectly between IAD and NBO, with the top five operators shown below. Before Kenya Airways began flying to JFK, Ghadially says that "IAD was a larger local market to/from NBO. United could easily stimulate demand by 35%+ if nonstop flights are launched." Top Airlines For IAD-NBO Travel Share Of Passengers In 2025 Ethiopian Airlines via Addis Ababa 18% Qatar Airways via Doha 16% Delta/Air France/KLM via Paris and Amsterdam 11% United/Lufthansa via Frankfurt 10% Emirates via Dubai 9% It is not just about historical or potential future passenger traffic. Or, for that matter, freight, despite the prediction that "belly cargo would be full in both directions, thus providing major incremental revenue." It is also about passenger fares. When all airlines, cabins, and passengers are considered, Ghadially says that the average fare between IAD and NBO was $933 each way last year (including a fuel surcharge but excluding taxes). He adds: "United could easily boost the average fare higher because of strong premium loads, as those passengers will pay extra for the convenience of having nonstop flights. The airline would benefit from high-yielding US government and corporate traffic and its loyalty program base in North America, along with safari tourism with high net worth individuals." Loading map… Drag to explore Three Weekly Flights To Nairobi? Ghadially suggests that United should launch this brand-new route in winter 2027. Covering 6,585 nautical miles (12,195 km) on a great circle basis, a thrice-weekly operation using the Boeing 787-9 is recommended. This is a standard frequency for a new link and would mean only one dedicated frame would be needed. Given the long distance, the block time back to the US is estimated to be around 15.5 hours. Of course, local passengers (those only flying between IAD and NBO) are just one part of the overall target. To help consistently fill the aircraft in each direction, United would also actively target traffic to multiple destinations via IAD. Connections to/from Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (MSP) would be especially important. Ghadially says: "United's core advantage would be offering passengers a convenient one-stop service between MSP and NBO. It is the third-largest US-NBO market, with 49,000 passengers in 2025 [after NYC and IAD itself]. Presently, Kenya Airways does not codeshare with Delta between JFK and MSP." United's top ten transit targets via IAD would be NYC (85,000 passengers in 2025), MSP (49,000), Toronto (41,000), Dallas (29,000), Seattle (28,000), Boston (26,000), Los Angeles (20,000), San Francisco (18,000), Houston (16,000), and Miami (11,000). Ethiopian Airlines Would Be The Main Loser, But... Credit: Ethiopian Airlines Fellow Star Alliance operator Ethiopian will inevitably be the primary airline to lose out if United launches IAD-NBO service. However, "it would not suffer too much. The local Addis Ababa-IAD market is strong in itself [49,000 passengers last year], while the carrier has many more African and Indian Subcontinent markets to fall back on to make up whatever traffic is lost between IAD and NBO." Booking data shows that NBO was Ethiopian's largest segment from IAD via Addis Ababa. Despite the detour, Lagos was second, with the rest of the top 15 markets being Johannesburg, Entebbe, Douala, Abuja, Kilimanjaro, Kigali, Luanda, Dar es Salaam, Cape Town, Harare, Yaoundé, Lilongwe, and Accra.