European infrastructure is vulnerable as Putin escalates Russia’s hybrid war

As Russia’s hybrid war against Europe has escalated in recent months, policymakers and commentators have begun to question exactly how far Vladimir Putin is prepared to go. This has led to speculation over the possibility of a limited Russian attack on NATO, with the goal of testing the resolve of the alliance and undermining the credibility of NATO’s collective security commitments. United States intelligence officials reported in August that a Russian incursion into NATO territory could potentially take place within a matter of months. A number of European countries have recently reached similar conclusions regarding the potential for a localized Russian offensive. Not everyone is convinced. Some skeptics doubt whether Putin’s overstretched military is in any position to risk a major new war against the theoretically overwhelming might of the NATO alliance. However, few question that the threat is real and growing. While opinion remains divided over the likelihood of a direct military confrontation, most Europeans expect Russia’s current campaign of gray zone aggression to intensify further in the coming months. Stay updated As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox. Vladimir Putin seems to think an escalation against Europe can help break the deadlock in the current war. As his full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches a sixth year, the Russian army is struggling to advance on the battlefield and suffering catastrophic losses. With little current prospect of a decisive military breakthrough, Putin now hopes to achieve victory by bombing Ukraine’s civilian population into submission while using intimidation tactics against Europe to deter further support for Kyiv. Moscow has been waging a shadow war against Europe since the Russian invasion of Ukraine first began in 2014. This campaign has escalated in intensity since 2022 and is now entering a dangerous new phase, according to European officials. The attempted bombing of Leipzig airport by Russia in August was widely interpreted as a watershed moment that dramatically raised the stakes in the confrontation between Europe and the Kremlin. With Putin seeking ways to destabilize European countries and hoping to encourage public opposition to pro-Ukraine policies, there are now concerns that he will look to target the continent’s civilian infrastructure. In recent weeks, a series of sabotage operations on strategically sensitive communications hubs across Europe have been linked to Russia, fueling concerns that the Kremlin may be preparing bolder attacks. In October, a Lithuanian company storing Starlink communications equipment was targeted in an attempted arson attack. This incident in the Baltic region followed on from a series of similar sabotage operations in Bulgaria and Poland that also involved Starlink communications infrastructure. Polish officials called a recent blaze at a Starlink satellite station in central Poland a “deliberate act of sabotage” and said it reflected a “new Russian doctrine of attack.” Eurasia Center events Russia reportedly recruits agents across the internet in order to carry out attacks of this nature, making it more challenging for European intelligence agencies to monitor threats. The Kremlin is also thought to employ drones in both surveillance and strike roles, as was witnessed during the failed airport attack in Leipzig. In Germany alone, the police identified 165 suspected sabotage cases and 747 suspicious drone incidents nationwide during the first eight months of 2026. Meanwhile, Britain claims to have uncovered more than five hundred incidents of Russia deploying fishing trawlers to spy on undersea cables connecting the UK with Europe and the United States. Moscow is allegedly mapping this underwater infrastructure for potential future targeting. Any attempts to disrupt cables could have a major impact on transatlantic communications networks as well as banking, healthcare, and a range of other key services. Russia has already faced accusations of targeting Europe’s civilian infrastructure. Poland blamed Russia for a series of cyberattacks on the country’s power grid in late 2025 that came close to causing a major blackout. During the same period, Kremlin-linked groups also allegedly launched similar attacks on a Swedish heating plant and a water utilities service provider in Denmark. These operations have highlighted the vulnerability of Europe’s civilian infrastructure to Russia’s shadow war at a time when many security protocols across the continent remain based on peacetime assumptions that no longer reflect current realities. Europe’s infrastructure is also exposed due to a high degree of integration that means disruption in one country could soon cross borders. A number of European governments appear to be aware of the danger. Poland has launched a new initiative to share information on potential hybrid threats to the country’s infrastructure, while countries including Germany and Austria are exploring similar steps. This is encouraging, but more action is required. Putin is currently looking to exploit Europe’s vulnerabilities as he seeks ways to isolate Ukraine and cut off Kyiv’s European aid lifeline. Civilian infrastructure may be one of the continent’s weakest links. Addressing this weakness should be a security priority as European leaders look to counter the growing threat from the Kremlin. Maksym Beznosiuk is an analyst whose work focuses on Russia, Ukraine, and international security. He is an associate fellow at GLOBSEC. Further reading The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters. The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values, and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia in the East. Follow us on social media and support our work Image: Science Photo Library via Reuters Connect