Europe Warned It Is Running Out of Time to Prepare for Wider War With Russia

Europe may already be losing the hybrid war with Russia – and could face a real war on the continent if it fails to turn its economic and military strength into political action, speakers warned at a Paneuropa Ukraine conference in Kyiv. The conference “A Vision of a United Europe: Shared Defense, Diplomacy, and Geopolitical Agency” was held in Kyiv on Sept. 18, bringing together Ukrainian and European politicians, diplomats, researchers and security experts to discuss Europe’s ability to respond to Russia’s war against Ukraine and growing geopolitical challenges.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. A recurring message throughout the conference was that Europe cannot continue relying on assumptions that a major war is impossible on the continent. Several speakers argued that Russia’s war in Ukraine should be viewed as part of a broader confrontation with the European security order, while others warned that Europe is already losing, or has nearly lost, the hybrid conflict being waged against it. The conference is set to continue in Vienna from Oct. 2-4, when a Paneuropa Congress will take place. A draft Vienna Declaration has already been prepared and is expected to be presented after the two events. Ihor Zhaloba, head of Paneuropa Ukraine, said the decision to hold the first conference in Kyiv was itself meant to send a political signal. “Paneuropa is not afraid, Ukraine is not afraid; we are working and considering how to resolve the various issues facing us today,” Zhaloba said. Other Topics of Interest Erdoğan Backs Peace Upholding Ukraine’s Territorial Integrity Ankara is pursuing a Black Sea shipping initiative while balancing support for Kyiv’s borders with deep energy ties to Moscow. Pan-European Conference participants Yurii Honcharenko, Halyna Yanchenko, Ihor Zhaloba, Valeriy Pekar, and Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, from left to right. (Photo by Olena Marchevska) He argued that Europe must develop the political will to use its economic, technological and geopolitical strength. “This is not merely about Russia’s war against Ukraine; it is about Russia’s war against Europe. And, on a broader scale, a conflict between the democratic world and the totalitarian world,” Zhaloba added. That broader framing was echoed throughout the conference. Europe cannot afford to assume war is impossible Reinhard Kloucek, president of Paneuropa Austria, said a generation of European politicians had grown up believing that war was something that happened elsewhere rather than on the continent. “That makes you lazy,” he said. Kloucek argued that the international order is already changing and that Europe needs to become an independent geopolitical actor rather than remaining dependent on the US, China or Russia. He warned that failure to act could leave future generations living in a drastically different Europe. “If we do not realize in the European countries that now we have the chance because of the challenges we are facing, then our children and grandchildren will live in a Soviet Union 4.0,” Kloucek said. Kloucek also added that Ukraine is central to Europe’s ability to develop such a geopolitical role. “The clear point is if we, as Europe, want to play a geo-political role, we need Ukraine,” he said, adding that Russia’s success in conquering Ukraine would demonstrate its ability to divide Europe despite the continent’s greater economic potential. From left to right: Hans Petter Midttun, Reinhard Kloucek, Juraj Mesík, and Oleh Mahaletskyi. (Photo by Olena Marchevska) ‘The EU has nearly lost’ the hybrid war Juraj Mesík, an independent researcher of global trends and risk management from Slovakia, identified Russia as the main threat to Europe and argued that Europe possesses the industrial and technological capabilities needed to confront Russia but lacks the political will to use them. Mesík described “learned helplessness” and Europe’s reliance on the US as major obstacles, arguing that Russia interprets Europe’s defensive posture as weakness. “Russia is weak and vulnerable – the main strength of the Kremlin is political impotence of democratic Europe,” he said. Halyna Yanchenko, a Ukrainian lawmaker, went further, saying Europe should stop treating real warfare as an abstract or secondary threat. “It seems it is time for us to stop talking about hybrid or cognitive warfare and start talking about a real threat. Russia is waging a direct and aggressive hybrid war in Europe. And as of today, it is winning this war – or perhaps has nearly won it already,” she said. Yanchenko argued that Russian influence is being amplified by populist political forces in Europe and warned that the transition from hybrid conflict to conventional warfare could become the most dangerous stage. “The most frightening thing is the transition from hybrid war to actual war; few realize that probably only three countries in the world are prepared for actual war – Russia, China, and Ukraine – simply because the latter has no other choice.” She also said Ukraine’s experience demonstrates the consequences of delayed military assistance, adding that earlier deliveries of weapons could have changed the course of the war. “There are only two things that constitute real security guarantees for Ukraine – and it is not NATO, but a strong Ukrainian army and a robust defense-industrial complex.” Experts warn a real war in Europe is possible Valeriy Pekar, chairman of the board of the NGO Decolonization, offered one of the conference’s most detailed scenarios for how a wider European conflict could begin. He argued that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 should not necessarily be viewed as the model for future Russian military action. Instead, he pointed to what he described as Russia’s concept of “liminal war” – a conflict designed to create uncertainty over whether and how an adversary should respond. Pekar said a future confrontation could begin with a combination of missile and drone strikes, sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation, political influence operations and covert activity, potentially without the immediate deployment of ground forces. He used Poland as a hypothetical example, saying a combination of attacks and infrastructure disruption could create a refugee crisis and undermine European decision-making. His broader warning was that Russia could seek to destabilize European countries through relatively limited but coordinated actions rather than immediately launching a conventional invasion. Hans Petter Midttun, a nonresident fellow at the Centre for Defence Strategies and a Kyiv Post author, similarly argued that Europe must recognize the strategic nature of Russia’s war. “NATO is no longer deterring Russia. And that’s the main purpose of NATO. It’s not to fight a war and win it,” Midttun said. He added that Russia is fighting not merely for Ukrainian territory but to restore great-power status and achieve strategic parity with China and the US. According to Midttun, Ukraine is therefore an objective within a much broader Russian strategy, while the West itself represents the fundamental obstacle to Russia’s ambitions. Ukraine’s role in a stronger Europe Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, a Ukrainian lawmaker and chair of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Freedom of Speech, said Ukraine should already be regarded as part of the Western democratic world. He argued that Europe needs stronger institutions to counter cognitive warfare and proposed an EU-level platform involving Ukraine, Norway and the UK, saying the countries face essentially the same security threat. “Criminal elements are traditionally united, whereas we are not,” Yurchyshyn said. He added that Europe needs its own security policy, whether developed alongside NATO or independently, and that such a policy would be ineffective without Ukraine. From left to right: Yehor Cherniev, Pavlo Zhovnirenko, Vladyslav Hreziev, Christian Weichselbaum, and Yaroslav Bozhko. (Photo by Olena Marchevska) Yehor Chernev, head of Ukraine’s permanent delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and chair of the Rada’s Committee on National Security, focused on Europe’s practical military weaknesses. He said Europe remains heavily dependent on the US for security and on both the US and China for critical defense supply chains. He said European countries can take five to seven years to introduce or field a new type of weapon, while Ukraine has developed significant combat experience and defense-sector expertise during the war. Chernev also highlighted European dependence on China for critical raw materials, including rare-earth metals, and argued that Ukraine’s experience could help Europe reduce bureaucratic and industrial bottlenecks. Ukraine’s path into Europe Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, chair of the Rada’s Committee on Ukraine’s Integration into the EU, focused on Ukraine’s European integration. She said public support for EU membership in Ukraine remains high but has fallen from around 90% in 2022 to roughly 73–75%, making it important to maintain and deepen public understanding of the integration process. She argued that Ukraine’s eventual EU membership should be made as irreversible as possible through legal and institutional mechanisms, while acknowledging that Ukraine must continue its internal reforms even during wartime. Oleksandr Khara, director of the Centre for Defence Strategies, said Europe’s existing political structures were largely designed for peacetime and are not sufficient to address the current combination of threats from Russia, China and broader geopolitical instability. “We need a more united Europe, not less,” Khara said. From left to right: Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, Sven Sovchik, Yevheniia Kravchuk, Reinhard Kloucek, Oleksandr Khara, and Svitlana Shatalina. (Photo by Olena Marchevska) Yevheniia Kravchuk, a Ukrainian lawmaker and chairperson of the PACE Committee on Culture, Science, Education and Media, similarly stressed that security has become inseparable from human rights and European institutions. She added that Ukraine’s support for EU integration remains considerably higher than in many EU countries, calling this a paradox that Europe should consider. Belarus and Europe’s wider neighborhood Svitlana Shatalina of the Coordination Council of Democratic Belarus described Belarus as remaining within Russia’s orbit and called for greater European support for Belarusians living abroad. She highlighted difficulties faced by Belarusians unable to renew passports without returning home and argued that treating Belarusian citizens abroad as full members of European societies would strengthen their ability to resist Alexander Lukashenko’s regime. Pavlo Zhovnirenko, chairman of the Center for Strategic Studies, described the war as existential for both Russia and Ukraine and rejected the idea that a simple compromise could resolve the conflict. He warned that if Russia is not stopped in Ukraine, its military and demographic gains could eventually be turned against Europe. “In other words, if Europe fails to help Ukraine win, Ukraine’s potential could eventually be turned against Europe itself,” Zhovnirenko said.