Emmys 2026 Prediction: Which Show Will Win Outstanding Drama Series

The 2026 Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series features some of the most exciting shows currently on TV, but there can only be one winner in the end. Published Sep 12, 2026, 4:15 PM EDT Ben is a Senior Writer on the New TV team at Screen Rant. He graduated from the University of Central Lancashire with a First Class B.A. Degree in English Literature and History. Born and raised in Ireland, Ben has always had a love for storytelling in all forms of media and operates multiple projects under the name Benjamin Blogs. Ben is a comic book writer and podcast host, in addition to his work as an entertainment journalist. He has worked as both a writer and editor for Screen Rant, Collider, and other media outlets across various departments, including features, news, reviews, and interviews. The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards will be live on Monday, September 14th, with one of the hottest categories being the Outstanding Drama Series, where eight shows are in the running. The Emmys are the biggest awards event in TV, and this year, there are some incredible shows being recognized as part of the event. With several of the creative arts categories already being awarded ahead of the live ceremony on Monday, it remains to be seen which drama series will claim the top spot. With eight shows in the running, some new releases that debuted in 2025, and others that are several seasons deep, the competition is stiff. That being said, there are some things that indicate which show will walk away victorious, and which shows may still be in the running. With all of that in mind, this is the official ScreenRant prediction for the winner of the Outstanding Drama Series Emmy in 2026. 8. Your Friends & Neighbors (Apple TV) Via MovieStillsDB First up, and in our opinion, the least likely candidate to win the category, is Your Friends & Neighbors from Apple TV. While this show is absolutely worth watching, and season 2 managed to land an impressive 90% rating from critics over on Rotten Tomatoes, the overall quality doesn't compare to the rest of the nominees. It also bends the rules of genre slightly here considering this is a dark comedy drama, as opposed to a more focused drama series like the other entries. Ultimately, it feels like the weakest addition, and it is a series that has had the least impact on audiences, with a 68% score on Rotten Tomatoes. 7. The Diplomat (Netflix) Next up, The Diplomat is one of the most established shows nominated for the Emmy this year, with the third season being the focus of this nomination. And three seasons deep, The Diplomat is still making waves, having racked up 10 Emmy nominations over that period. It's got a strong cast, a tense atmosphere, and a unique angle that makes this a wonderful addition to the list of nominees. However, The Diplomat hasn't had the same level of success, or the excitement and intrigue surrounding some of the newer entries. Regardless, this is a very worthy nomination that deserves the recognition it is getting. 6. A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms (HBO) Next up, A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms already has the advantage of having won one of the nine categories that its premiere season was nominated for, with a handful of these remaining categories still in contention for Monday night's show. The series is also the latest spin-off from the highly decorated Game of Thrones series, which earned 59 Emmy wins over its run. Evidently, the team behind this series is incredibly strong, the pedigree is there, and the sheer spectacle involved in bringing the ancient fantasy world of Westeros to life sets it apart. That being said, it will likely be impossible to topple the remaining entries' chances of success in favor of a fantasy series, as they are all more traditionally selected for the Outstanding Drama Series win. 5. Paradise (Hulu) Ser Baffo/©Hulu/Disney/Courtesy Everett Collection With only two seasons released, and an Emmy win for this year's Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series going to Shailene Woodley for her role in the episode "Graceland," Paradise is a serious contender. The show has also been nominated for a further 10 Emmy's in total, with the bulk of those being for the sophomore season released this past year. Paradise is a stellar series with a stunning cast and compelling writing that makes every single episode a thrill. It's certainly one of the best shows to come out of Hulu in some time, and as such, it is great to see it getting recognition, but again, this show has a slim chance of overtaking any of the remaining four entries on the list. 4. The Gilded Age (HBO) Next up, The Gilded Age is equal with The Diplomat considering it is into its third season, but in that time, this show has clearly established an edge over the competition. Beyond winning an Emmy in its debut season, and being nominated for a further 14 awards since then, The Gilded Age is a phenomenal period drama from the home of prestige TV, HBO. HBO obviously has a history of collecting awards for many of its offerings, and despite stiff competition in recent years, The Gilded Age is holding its own. That being said, the top three spots have proven to be even bigger awards magnets. 3. Slow Horses (Apple TV) Slow Horses is by far the most senior series in this list, with the show just about to begin airing its sixth season. However, with the 2026 Emmy nomination being for the somewhat more divisive fifth season, it's unlikely Slow Horses will be taking the top spot. Regardless, with the show being nominated for a total of 23 Emmys, and winning two of those, it should not be discounted. Slow Horses is one of the most successful shows to come out of Apple TV, and with a stellar cast including James Bond frontrunner Jack Lowden, Oscar winner Gary Oldman, and dozens of other incredibly talented actors, this is one show that absolutely deserves more recognition. It's just unlikely that it will win out over the final two nominees in 2026. 2. Pluribus (Apple TV) Our second-place pick, and potentially one of the most deserving new entries in TV, Pluribus is an incredible sci-fi drama from acclaimed showrunner, Vince Gilligan. Personally, Gilligan has won four Primetime Emmys, and his body of work speaks for itself with shows like Breaking Bad and Better Call Saul. Building on that incredible success, Pluribus' debut season has landed the Apple TV series with an incredible 18 Emmy nominations, and ahead of the show on Monday, Pluribus is already beginning to rack up awards with 4 Emmy wins under its belt. Evidently, this is an incredible contender, and no one would be upset to see it win, but there is one show that has the better odds. 1. The Pitt (HBO Max) Via MovieStillsDB Never mind the fact that The Pitt currently has 25 Emmy nominations for its second season, or the fact that it's already won nine Primetime Emmys, including taking home the award for Outstanding Drama Series last year over Severance. Never mind the fact that between the first and second year, the show has landed 38 nominations, including those nine wins. Ignoring all of that, The Pitt is a spectacular new series from HBO Max, starring Noah Wyle, whose experience in creating tense and deeply moving medical dramas is unrivaled, and the people both behind and in front of the cameras are some of the most skilled people working in these fields today. With all of that in mind, The Pitt is a shoo-in for the big win this year. And regardless of discourse suggesting shows like Pluribus may be more deserving, The Pitt absolutely earns its spot at the top, which is exactly why we are putting it forward as our official prediction to win the Outstanding Drama Series category at the 2026 Emmy Awards. Location The Peacock Theater, Los Angeles, CA Dates September 14, 2026 Network NBC