El Nino ruined India's monsoon: Will it ruin winter too?

A strengthening El Nino is keeping India on alert after a 13% monsoon deficit. Its winter effects may vary by region, with warmer conditions and uneven rain both in play.One of the clearest signals seen during strong El Nino events is a tendency towards warmer winter conditions. (Photo: Getty)New Delhi,Oct 7, 2026 09:00 ISTIndia's monsoon may have ended, but El Nino has not. And that raises a new question: after a below-normal monsoon, what could the developing El Nino mean for India's winter?The 2026 southwest monsoon ended with a 13% rainfall deficit, leaving parts of the country with depleted water reserves and damaged crops.At the same time, El Nino has strengthened sharply over the Pacific and is expected to remain a major climate influence through the winter. The India Meteorological Department has said the event could reach the “very strong” category later this year.But a weak monsoon does not automatically mean a harsh or dry winter. El Nino's influence on India's winter is more complicated. This year, the warning signal is stronger because El Nino is still intensifying. (Photo: Getty) WILL WINTER BE WARMER?One of the clearest signals seen during strong El Nino events is a tendency towards warmer winter conditions over parts of India.The reason is that El Nino shifts large-scale patterns of rising and sinking air around the tropics. Those changes can influence wind patterns thousands of kilometres away, including the systems that control India's winter weather.The 2015-16 winter provides a useful example. Following a strong El Nino and a severely deficient 2015 monsoon, India experienced an unusually warm winter.During parts of December and January, temperatures were several degrees above normal in many areas, while winter rainfall was exceptionally low. Scientists linked the warmth to El Nino along with changes in the atmospheric circulation over the region. India's winter is influenced by far more than El Nino. (Photo: Getty) That matters for agriculture because winter is not simply India's “cold season”. It is also the crucial growing period for wheat and other Rabi crops.El Nino DOES NOT ALWAYS MEAN A DRY WINTERThis is where the story gets interesting.Northwestern India gets much of its winter rain from weather systems known as western disturbances. These storms travel eastward from the Mediterranean and surrounding regions and bring rain to the plains and snow to the Himalayas.Research has found that El Nino can actually be associated with more winter precipitation over northwestern India, because it can alter atmospheric circulation in a way that strengthens or changes the behaviour of western disturbances.So the winter response can look contradictory: warmer temperatures in some regions, but potentially more winter precipitation in northwest India.WHAT DOES HISTORY TELL US?The strongest El Nino events show why there is no simple formula.In 1982 and 1987, major El Nino events coincided with severe Indian monsoon deficits. But in 1997, another exceptionally strong El Nino produced an almost normal all-India monsoon. Scientists found that changes in atmospheric circulation over the Indian Ocean helped produce a very different outcome.And the winter story is equally variable.The 2015-16 season showed how El Nino can contribute to unusual warmth and a lack of winter chill. But other years demonstrate that regional rainfall, western disturbances and Indian Ocean conditions can alter the outcome.SO WHAT COULD WINTER 2026-27 LOOK LIKE?This year, the warning signal is stronger because El Nino is still intensifying. IMD expects it to strengthen through the end of 2026, while forecasts indicate that it could persist into early 2027.For India, that could mean a warmer-than-normal winter in several regions, disrupted winter rainfall and greater weather swings. But it does not mean every part of the country will become warm or dry.And there is another complication: India's winter is influenced by far more than El Nino.For farmers, therefore, the real question is not simply “Will El Nino make winter warmer?”It is whether the country gets the right combination of cold, rain and snow at the right time, especially after a monsoon that has already left parts of India short of water.This winter, the Pacific may be setting the stage. But India's own atmosphere will decide how the drama plays out.#ElNinoWatch- Ends