Eastern Cape set for ANC battle as rivals eye political stronghold

Political parties including the UDM, MK, EFF and SACP are expected to make significant inroads in the Eastern Cape as ANC divisions deepen ahead of the local government elections. The Eastern Cape is poised to become a battleground between the ANC and other parties seeking to capitalise on its vulnerabilities in this political stronghold. Experts have identified several significant challengers such as the United Democratic Movement (UDM), the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK), the EFF and the South African Communist Party (SACP). These parties are expected to contest the ANC in the birthplace of struggle icons like Nelson Mandela, Walter Sisulu, Chris Hani, Steve Biko and Robert Sobukwe. ANC divisions could benefit rivals Independent political economy analyst Sandile Swana suggests that ongoing ANC infighting in the province will benefit these “alternatives”, as he calls them. They are considered alternatives because they share many policies with the ANC. Their leadership’s roots are in the ANC and they continue to espouse the progressive congress culture of people-centred socioeconomic solutions. Voters dissatisfied with the ANC still want to remain within its cultural framework, making these leaders appealing. UDM president Bantu Holomisa once served on the Mandela-led ANC’s national executive committee; Jacob Zuma was ANC president; Julius Malema led the ANC Youth League; and the SACP remains part of the alliance alongside Cosatu. “The divisions within the ANC in the Eastern Cape are going to benefit these alternative parties significantly,” Swana said. “Some may secure proportional representation seats rather than ward seats, possibly gaining representation in areas where the ANC could not field candidates for the local government elections on 4 November.” Several parties believe the ANC will suffer considerable vote losses, particularly in the Eastern Cape, where it lost Nelson Mandela Bay in the 2016 local elections. UDM gains momentum The UDM, on the other hand is gaining momentum in the eastern (Transkei) and central (Ciskei and border) regions, especially Buffalo City. At Ngcobo, 1 000 ANC members defected in one go, while Buffalo City sheds members at every UDM campaign weekend. The UDM is fielding deputy president Nqabayomzi Kwankwa as a high-profile mayoral candidate, competing against either Simphiwe Dzengwa or Ncedo Kumbaca from the ANC. MK and EFF target ANC weaknesses Swana said MK is partly responsible for some of the chaos within the ANC and stands to benefit from internal divisions. Malema has already started the EFF campaign by publicly attacking premier Oscar Mabuyane as part of the party’s regional strategy. Eastern Cape politics remain predominantly black-dominated, with coloured representation concentrated in Gqeberha and minimal in Buffalo City. Coloured voters generally align with the Patriotic Alliance. The ANC remains stronger in rural areas. Since 2016, the ANC has struggled in Nelson Mandela Bay metro, which has been out of its reach. “The UDM, EFF, MK and SACP recognise the ANC is unlikely to perform well in certain geographic areas,” Swana said. “They are positioning themselves as alternatives. Given current constraints on budget and branch membership, these parties should be able to make significant inroads in the Eastern Cape at ANC expense.” Rural areas key to Eastern Cape contest Swana says ActionSA is an urban party focusing on Joburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni. “In the Eastern Cape, a party needs to be active in rural areas.” Independent analyst Goodenough Mashego said the ANC has become a “party of chaos”, unable even to submit candidate lists to the IEC due to disorganisation. Some other parties may fall into the trap of ethnic politics, where voters support a party because it is their “home boy party”. Although the UDM and Afrika Mayibuye party of Floyd Shivambu are not campaigning on ethnic lines, some see them as homeboy parties in the Xhosa-speaking Buffalo City and Ngcobo (UDM) and the Tsonga-speaking Malamulele and Giyani (Mayibuye).