Each Team’s Penalty For Signing A Qualifying Offer-Rejecting Free Agent

Since we just looked at what teams would stand to receive in draft compensation if they lost a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, now it’s time to explore what each team would have to give up in order to sign a QO-rejecting free agent. To recap the mechanics: if a free agent has played the entire 2026 season with a team and he has never received a qualifying offer in the past, he is eligible to be issued a QO within five days of the end of the World Series. The qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average of the salaries of the top 125 highest-paid players in the majors, and this winter, the QO is worth $23.15MM. An eligible free agent can simply accept the QO and thus avoid free agency entirely, but if he rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere. This only relates to qualified free agents from other teams, as a club can re-sign its own qualified free agents with no penalty. As noted in the previous post, the finalized list of teams within each category won’t be known until MLB releases its official payroll calculations in early December, and last winter’s calculations saw the Cardinals drop into the recipient camp for the first time. This listing of the non-tax teams is based on how the clubs were categorized last winter, apart from the teams went over the tax line in 2026. As the projections from MLBTR’s Payroll Tracker indicate, the nine CBT payors exceeded the $244MM threshold by a wide enough margin that there isn’t any doubt about which teams will or won’t be paying the tax. Revenue Sharing Recipients: Athletics, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins Should one of these clubs sign a qualified free agent, they will have to give up their third-highest selection in the 2027 draft. Since most of these smaller-market teams are part of the Competitive Balance bonus rounds of the draft, their third-highest pick likely won’t be their third-round pick, and the situation could be further complicated if any of the teams trade from their CBR picks. The Competitive Balance selections are the only draft picks eligible to be traded — in the 2026 draft, six total picks over the two CBR rounds were made by teams who acquired those selections in trades prior to draft day. Again turning to the posts MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote last month about the position players and pitchers who are likeliest to receive qualifying offers, this winter’s list of probable QO candidates is pretty short, with just eight total players cited as locks, probables, or borderline. The scarcity will make it even harder for any of the 15 revenue-sharing recipients (representing 13 of the league’s lowest 15 payrolls from 2026) to win a bidding war against wealthier teams. The Diamondbacks, Mariners, Orioles, Tigers, and Twins all have designs on contending next year, and might be willing to stretch payroll and give up a pick in order to land a qualified free agent. Assuming that Randy Arozarena, Trevor Rogers, and Ryan Jeffers all receive and reject QOs, the Mariners, Orioles, and Twins would be getting compensatory picks back, which might make those clubs more open to expending some draft capital to sign another qualified free agent since they’d break even in terms of picks. Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Angels, Astros, Giants, Nationals, Rangers, White Sox For signing a qualified free agent, these teams would have to surrender their second-highest pick of the 2026 draft, and also $500K from their bonus pool during the next international signing period. The Angels are currently in limbo given the team’s impending sale and the uncertain status of interim GM John Mozeliak, so they’re probably in line for a quieter offseason until the new ownership group is fully in place (which won’t happen until after the lockout). Beyond the Halos, one can make some kind of plausible case for any of the other five teams to make more of a splashy free agent signing, but it just depends on how much any of the clubs are willing to spend. As much as David Bednar or Adrian Morejon would be a huge boost to Washington’s mediocre bullpen, the Nationals may not be looking to make any truly big splashes since they’re still in something of a rebuild. The Astros are looking for a new GM and owner Jim Crane generally approves of only limited forays into free agency, even if Crane might be more willing to spend in the wake of Houston’s middling results (by their championship standards) over the last three years. The Giants and Rangers are each facing increasing desperation to get back to the postseason, and San Francisco in particular might be more apt to splurge on Rogers, Bednar, or Morejon. The White Sox are perhaps the most intriguing team on the list, as Chicago’s stunning rise from doormat to the ALDS might make the team more aggressive in adding to what suddenly looks like a contending core. Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Blue Jays, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft. Atlanta generally doesn’t make big moves in free agency and San Diego’s payroll situation under its new ownership group remains a little unclear. But, all nine of these teams are trying to win in 2027, and it would surprise nobody if any of these clubs made a push to sign a qualified free agent. There aren’t any penalties attached for re-signing your own QO-rejecting free agent, so that could hold extra appeal for the Yankees in trying to retain Bednar, and the Cubs figure to make some effort to bring back Seiya Suzuki even if Chicago will be mostly focused on adding pitching.